DO NOT TRADE FOR EDINSON VOLQUEZ!!!!!

After 19 years and over 50 leagues, I’ve finally started to feel burnt out on fantasy baseball.

I never thought the day would come, but in recent weeks that is how I’ve felt; thus, nary a blog for close to two weeks.

But luckily, I think I’m coming out of my funk and I’m ready to tackle the second half.

While the All-Star game is the ceremonial halfway mark of the season, the real halfway mark is this week. Hope you are ready to make a run.

As you can tell by the title, the main focus of today’s piece is Edinson Volquez and his league leading 1.71 ERA.

In fact, it’s not just Volquez who I’m going to focus on but also Justin Duscherer (1.99 ERA) and Cliff Lee (2.45 ERA).

Those are the top three in the majors in ERA as of today, Wednesday, June 25th. And, amazingly, those three also went undrafted in many a mixed league back in March.

So why do I say do not trade for Volquez, or Duscherer, or Lee?

One word: HISTORY.

The simple truth is that in this day and age of monster mashing, the sub 3 ERA is a dinosaur, reserved for the elite among the elite. From 2006-07, there were only 3 starting pitchers with ERA’s below 3.00. Peavy in ’07 and Santana and Oswalt (barely 2.98) in ’06.

If you think for one minute that Volquez, Lee or Duscherer are going to finish the season with ERA’s below 3, you are out of your mind. It will not happen.

Yet, I still see owners trading for these guys as if any of them actually had some kind of track record.

It’s just simple math. For any of these three to continue what they have done over the first three months would be a statistical anomaly, one that I would not be willing to bet on.

Exhibit A for the prosecution: statistics from the past seven seasons. Below are the league leaders in ERA at the midway point of the season, from 2001-07, followed by their second half numbers.

2007

Chris Young
1st half-2.00
2nd half-4.80

Jake Peavy
1st half-2.19
2nd half-2.93

Dan Haren
1st half-2.30
2nd half-4.15

2006

Francisco Liriano
1st half-1.33
2nd half-3.03

Josh Johnson
1st half-2.21
2nd half-4.16

Brandon Webb
1st half-2.65
2nd half-3.76

2005

Roger Clemens
1st half-1.48
2nd half-2.42

Roy Oswalt
1st half-2.39
2nd half-3.65

Dontrelle Willis
1st half-2.39
2nd half-2.91

2004

Ben Sheets
1st half-2.26
2nd half-3.17

Al Leiter
1st half-2.40
2nd half-4.02

Jake Peavy
1st half-2.43
2nd half-2.18

2003

Dontrelle Willis
1st half-2.08
2nd half-4.60

Esteban Loaiza
1st half-2.21
2nd half-3.84

Kevin Brown
1st half-2.30
2nd half-2.50

2002

Tom Glavine
1st half-2.27
2nd half-3.93

Woody Williams
1st half-2.35
2nd half-3.04 (just 5 games due to injury)

Derek Lowe
1st half-2.36
2nd half-2.83

2001

Pedro Martinez
1st half-2.26
2nd half-3.46 (just 3 games due to injury)

Greg Maddux
1st half-2.41
2nd half-3.82

John Burkett
1st half-2.49
2nd half-3.79

A couple things to note from the above.

1. Of the 21 pitchers listed above, only one saw his ERA actually go down in the second half…Peavy in 2004.

2. Of the 21, only 6 posted an ERA below 3 in their respective second halves.

3. Pitchers who stand out as anomalies (Al Leiter, John Burkett, Josh Johnson, Chris Young) all had severe flameouts in the second half. I would be more apt to compare Volquez, Lee and Duscherer to those four guys, before I would put them in the class of Clemens, Peavy and Kevin Brown.

In many instances, these league leaders had decent second halves. In 2008, an ERA below 4 almost always warrants fantasy consideration.

But the point I’m trying to make is that if you deal for Volquez and his miniscule ERA, don’t think that you are taking it with you. These three months of off the chart stats are gone. You are going to get the leftovers…more than likely an ERA around 3.50.

Is that horrible? Not at all. But keep that in mind when you are making a deal. Would you trade Chase Utley for a pitcher you know was going to post an ERA of 3.84? We all know the answer to that. Just beware. The numbers don’t lie.

P.S. In case you didn’t realize it, Chipper Jones ain’t going to hit .400 either. Just in case you really thought it was going to happen.