I fool myself every year heading into fantasy football drafts. While baseball drafts can be fairly predictable, football drafts always go screwy.
Read all the publications you want. Follow all the mock drafts you want. Compile a list based on ADP (Average Draft Position). No matter what, things will end up going haywire.
I took part in my first money draft this past weekend. As the reigning champ, I had bragging rights over everyone in the room, though based on the outcome of the draft, I don’t expect to make it two in a row.
Like almost all other nowadays, this was a keeper league, with owners allowed to protect two players from their previous year’s lineup. We are also allowed to trade future draft picks. That being the case, I didn’t have a first round pick this year, since I traded it late last season for Brian Westbrook.
The results and my spin on things: (each team’s keepers are listed in parentheses)
Round 1
1-Ziliani-(Marshawn Lynch, Jason Witten)-LaDanian Tomlinson
2-Olivo-(Fred Taylor, Tony Gonzalez)-Brian Westbrook
3-Gray-(David Garrard, Stephen Gostkowski?!?)-Tom Brady
4-Layton-(Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Grant)-Joseph Addai
5-Gartner-(Adrian Peterson, Braylon Edwards)-Tony Romo
6-Blum-(Michael Turner, Wes Welker)-Clinton Portis
7-Swartz-(Phillip Rivers, Shaun McDonald)-Steven Jackson
8-Babrisky-(Eli Manning, Jamal Lewis)-Randy Moss
9-Gartner-Maurice Jones Drew
10-Blum-Terrell Owens
As you can see, right out of the shoot, craziness ensued. Gray kept hollering that he didn’t want to take Addai at 3, but nobody believed him. He shocked the world and took Brady, making his keeper Garrard completely useless. I can’t even comment on the fact that he protected a kicker….it would be too easy.
Romo at 5 was another shock, considering a pairing of S-Jax and Peterson (the good one) would have been amazing. Also, Romo could have been had with his second first round pick at number 9, considering teams 7 and 8 already had quarterbacks protected. You need to look at these things Tom!
Portis going before Jackson was another surprise. I was afraid I would be stuck taking Portis with my first pick at 12…luckily, that didn’t come to be. Did I mention I hate Clinton Portis?
And then there is MJD. The touchdowns are nice, but taking a timeshare RB with the 9th overall pick…I just can’t give it my stamp of approval.
Round 2
11-Ziliani-Reggie Wayne
12-Me-(Matt Hasselback, Jeremy Shockey)-Marion Barber
13-Babrisky-Frank Gore
14-Swartz-Peyton Manning
15-Gartner-Larry Fitzgerald
16-Blum-Drew Brees
17-Layton-Marques Colston
18-Gray-Willis McGahee
19-Olivo-Andre Johnson
20-Ziliani-Chad Johnson
I’ll start with my pick….I couldn’t believe my eyes when I found I had a choice of Marion Barber or Frank Gore with the 12th overall pick!!! I end up choosing Barber only because the Dallas offense is SO much better than the Niners. The Boys are going to run Barber into the ground this year…and no, I’m not worried about Felix Jones. Barber is THE MAN and should have gone in the first round.
I worry about Fitzgerald, only because Matt Leinart stinks. When word broke that Kurt Warner was going to be the starter, I thought it was a good pick. Then word came that he’s not starting and that being the case, I would have taken Andre Johnson ahead of Fitz.
Bad news out of Cincy, as Ocho has a worse injury than originally thought. The Ziliani curse rears its ugly head. If you haven’t drafted yet, you might want to stay away from Tomlinson and Reggie Wayne as well. And anybody else listed under Ziliani throughout the rest of this draft. They are doomed.
Round 3
21-Ziliani-Carson Palmer
22-Olivo-TJ Houshmanzadeh
23-Gray-Willie Parker (oy)
24-Layton-Santonio Holmes
25-Blum-Anquan Boldin
26-Gartner-Larry Johnson
27-Blum-Thomas Jones
28-Gray-Plaxico Burress
29-Me-Brandon Jacobs
30-Worek-(Earnest Graham, Roddy White)-Laurence Maroney
Let’s start with Willie Parker….I think he’s a good guy to take a chance on. But with the 23rd overall pick, you shouldn’t be taking chances, you should be taking sure things.
Holmes is shooting up draft boards and so is Thomas Jones. Holmes I’m cool with, but Jones is a 30 year old RB who scored 2 total touchdowns last year. I know the Jets are better, but WOW. Even money says Leon Washington outperforms Jones this season.
Burress scares me because I could see the Super Bowl hangover really effecting him this season.
I’ve always been a sucker for Brandon Jacobs, mainly because he runs people over instead of running around them and I dig that. Him and I have close to the same dimensions, but I don’t fumble as much. Looking back, I should have gone WR, but I panicked. Still, a RB combo of Jacobs and Barber is alright with me.
Round 4
31-Worek-Torry Holt
32-Olivo-Marvin Harrison
33-Babrisky-Steve Smith
34-Swartz-Selvin Young
35-Gartner-Calvin Johnson
36-Blum-Roy Williams
37-Layton-Lavarneus Coles
38-Gray-Darren McFadden
39-Olivo-Donovan McNabb
40-Ziliani-Edgerrin James
The pizza has arrived and it’s the greasiest stuff I’ve ever seen. Does that stop me from scarfing down 4 slices?
I’d like to call this the round of guys I wouldn’t want anyway. It’s always nice when guys go off the board that you had no intention of going near. 8 of the ten in this round fall into that category.
Holt, Harrison and Smith were top 5 receivers last year and now here they are. Hanging with the Lavarneus Coles’ of the world. Depressing.
If you draft a Denver RB, you are a masochist. Seriously, is there ever a week where you are going to start Selvin Young and feel happy about it?
McFadden and McNabb are the two picks I liked….in fact, I was hoping McNabb would last until my next pick, but no such luck.
Justin Fargas signed a fat extension with the Raiders this offseason and then Al Davis goes and drafts McFadden. Any NFL team looking for a RB will be able to have Fargas in ’09, because he won’t be needed in Oaktown. McFadden is for real. But he still will be sharing categories at the outset, which stinks. Plus, I’ve heard he isn’t as good as people thought anyway. Shhhh.
Round 5
41-Ziliani-Jerricho Cotchery
42-Olivo-Derek Anderson
43-Gray-Anthony Gonzalez
44-Layton-Kevin Smith
45-Blum-Brandon Marshall
46-Blum-Antonio Gates
47-Swartz-Kellen Winslow
48-Babrisky-Matt Forte
49-Me-Greg Jennings
50-Worek-Jonathan Stewart
While round 4 was old guys, round 5 went young.
Ziliani is buying way too much into the Favre hype and reached for Cotchery.
Olivo drafted McNabb at 39 and then turns to Derek Anderson 3 picks later. Confusing.
Gates will finish the season closer to being the 10th best tight end than the 1st. You know what they say about the big toe.
Anthony Gonzalez shouldn’t have even sniffed the 5th round, but when Randy wants somebody, he goes after him. Too many number one receivers still out there to be taking a number 3.
Marshall might end up being the top receiver in the league this year. He’ll triple Gonzalez’s numbers, despite the suspension, which has been reduced to just one game.
I was desparate for a WR and Jennings was the best available. I know his success came with Favre…but he’s a third year receiver who’s improved each of his first two seasons. I can’t see him matching 12 TD’s, but I think he’ll see a bump in yardage.
I’d rather have Kevin Jones than Matt Forte.
Round 6
51-Worek-Jay Cutler
52-Me-Hines Ward
53-Babrisky-Reggie Bush
54-Swartz-Lee Evans
55-Gartner-Dwayne Bowe
56-Blum-Chris Cooley
57-Layton-Dallas Clark
58-Gray-Santana Moss
59-Olivo-Rudi Johnson
60-Ziliani-Nate Burleson
I’m disgusted with myself for taking Hines Ward. Let me just say that off the bat. But Pittsburgh is going to throw a lot….and Ward had 71 catches last year despite missing 3 and a half games. (I’m trying to convince myself it was a good pick)
Then comes Evans and Bowe. At least Hines has a real QB throwing him the ball.
The guy I should have taken was Santana Moss, who is going to be playing in a perfect scheme for his skill set.
The last two picks of the round don’t even warrant a comment.
Round 7
61-Ziliani-Brett Favre
62-Olivo-Chris Chambers
63-Gray-Joey Galloway
64-Layton-Bernard Berrian
65-Blum-Vikings D/ST
66-Gartner-Cowboys D/ST
67-Swartz-Reggie Brown
68-Babrisky-Ted Ginn
69-Me-Patrick Crayton
70-Worek-Lendale White
It was about the time of the Nate Burleson pick last round that I had to pay the piper for those four slices of pizza and five cups of coke. Needless to say, the bathroom at the Hamilton PBA Hall will never be the same again.
Here’s the funny thing. On the clock was Ziliani, in his newly minted, ‘hey look at me, I’m a frontrunner’, Brett Favre NY Jets jersey. It still smelled like Walmart. When I went into the men’s room, he was on the clock. When I came out, 10 minutes later, he was finally making his choice……Favre!!
If it takes you ten minutes to decide whether or not to draft the guy whose jersey you are wearing, something is amiss.
Round 7 should be called the round of average receivers. Chambers, Galloway, Berrian, Brown….they are all guys who end up starting for you, but you aren’t happy about it.
Maybe I was brainwashed by Hard Knocks, but I think Crayton makes the leap this year. His final numbers will be a lot closer to TO’s than people expect. You’ve been warned!
I liked Lendale White better when he was on ‘The Wire.’
Round 8
71-Worek-Heath Miller
72-Me-Ronnie Brown
73-Babrisky-Vernon Davis
74-Swartz-Reggie Williams
75-Gartner-DeAngelo Williams
76-Blum-Aaron Rodgers
77-Layton-Chris Johnson
78-Gray-Tony Scheffler
79-Olivo-Ahmad Bradshaw
80-Ziliani-Derrick Mason
I’ve got to be happy swiping Ronnie Brown in the 8th round, right?
This is about the time for you to be taking some chances and some owners did. Chris Johnson looks good in Tennessee.
Olivo is a Giants fan and he scared me when he took Bradshaw this early. Considering I have Jacobs, I’m hoping Bradshaw is an afterthought. Does the G-Men fan know something I don’t or is he just sickened by the fact that he owns both McNabb and Westbrook? Let’s hope he just felt the need to get some Big Blue blood on his squad.
I would also like to start a drive to ban Derrick Mason from all future fantasy football drafts….I hate him that much. At least he’s on the team of a guy in my division.
Round 9
81-Ziliani-Rashard Mendenhall
82-Olivo-Donte Stallworth
83-Gray-Jake Delhomme
84-Layton-Jason Campbell
85-Blum-Matt Leinart
86-Gartner-Matt Schaub
87-Swartz-Dominic Rhodes
88-Babrisky-Donald Driver
89-Me-Marc Bulger
90-Worek-Vincent Jackson
It’s the attack of the mediocre to below average quarterbacks!!
Gray was actually giddy when Delhomme ‘fell’ to him. Seriously….Jake has had reconstructive elbow surgery and he’s throwing to Muhshin Muhammed. Steve Smith is overrated.
Donald Driver was ‘that’ guy. All the rankings had him going much higher, but he just kept on falling. Like that last guy in the green room at the NFL draft. I started to feel sad for him.
Vincent Jackson….breakout candidate or perennial tease? You decide.
Round 10
91-Worek-Seahawks
92-Me-Kurt Warner
93-Babrisky-Chris Perry
94-Swartz-Jerry Porter
95-Gartner-Owen Daniels
96-Blum-Jaquars
97-Layton-Packers
98-Gray-Kevin Curtis
99-Olivo-Chargers
100-Ziliani-Patriots
News broke seconds before my selection that Warner would be the starter in Arizona. Sometimes, the internet is a bad thing.
Chris Perry is a tremendous pick in round 10, since he’ll be starting as long as he is healthy and Cincy always seems to supply it’s RB’s with scoring opportunities.
I heard Worek say the Seahawks, but I didn’t really believe it….until he put the sticker on the board. If you are missing picks in rounds 1 and 2, you can’t be taking a mediocre defense in round 10.
Pick 100 and I finally like a selection from Ziliani. The Pats schedule is cake and their defense gives you a ton of big plays. I’d definitely take them over GB, Seattle and the Cowboys.
Round 11
101-Ziliani-Jon Kitna
102-Olivo-Jeff Garcia
103-Gray-Deuce McAllister
104-Layton-Ben Utecht
105-Blum-Rob Bironas
106-Gartner-Jamarcus Russell
107-Swartz-Leon Washington
108-Babrisky-Justin Gage
109-Me-DJ Hackett
110-Worek-Nick Folk
Look at this motley crew of draft picks. Tell me one guy out of this 10 that you would come away saying you were excited to have on your team.
For some reason the Justin Gage selection resounded in a chorus of ‘ooh, nice pick.’ And they sounded serious.
With his 9th selection Worek takes a kicker to go along with his lousy D/ST.
DJ Hackett has had the label of breakout guy since I was in grade school. Maybe this year. Yeah, maybe this year.
Jamarcus Russell can throw a football 50 yards from his knees. He can also eat 50 yards worth of Italian hoagie in 10 minutes flat.
Round 12
111-Worek-Robert Meacham
112-Me-Bears
113-Babrisky-Kyle Orton
114-Swartz-Randy McMichael
115-Gartner-Adam Vinatieri
116-Gartner-LJ Smith
117-Layton-James Hardy
118-Gray-Donald Lee
119-Olivo-Todd Heap
120-Ziliani-Zach Miller
Hate to pick on Worek, but his last three picks have been Seattle, Nick Folk and Robert Meacham.
Remember the last two year, when people were selecting the Bears D/ST in like the 4th round? Now, suddenly, they are the 8th best? Last time I checked, Devin Hester was still on the team. As was Brian Urlacher.
Now James Hardy….that’s the kind of pick I like to see. Not some old retread who really has no chance of doing anything out of the ordinary (see DJ Hackett), but a young guy who might go for 1000 yards. He might also go for 250 yards on 12 catches. But I like the forward thinking. Nick pick Layton.
That’s a whole lot of lousy TE going in round 12. Sandwiched around the worst beard in the NFL, Kyle Orton. Moving on.
Round 13
121-Ziliani-Nate Kaeding
122-Olivo-Mason Crosby
123-Gray-Colts
124-Layton-Robbie Gould
125-Blum-Shayne Graham
126-Gartner-Eagles
127-Swartz-Ravens
128-Babrisky-Vince Young
129-Me-Antonio Bryant
130-Worek-Devin Hester
Back to back QB picks by Babrisky. Kyle Orton followed by Vince Young. Anybody with a QB to spare, I’ve got Babrisky’s number for you.
Kicker run!!!! Never a good time.
I love me some Antonio Bryant. Think Reggie Wayne, with not as good hands, a gay quarterback, and a big mouth. Which kind of makes them a match made in heaven. Seriously, Bryant can have a big year.
Round 14
131-Worek-Trent Edwards
132-Me-Josh Brown
133-Babrisky-Neil Rackers
134-Swartz-Ryan Longwell
135-Gartner-Sidney Rice
136-Layton-Chad Pennington
137-Gray-David Akers
138-Olivo-Giants
139-Ziliani-Josh Scobee
Before you persecute me, I took a kicker before my last RB because I was the only team left who needed an RB, thus I knew I had my choice later on.
Remember how many points Jeff Wilkins used to put up? Well, Josh Brown is a lot better than him and that was while kicking in Sasquatch Territory.
The Sidney Rice pick drew some ooh’s, but I’ve got better hands than him.
David Akers was 1-10 on FG’s over 40 yards last year. I love the guy, but he’s cooked. Shouldn’t even be drafted.
Round 15
140-Ziliani-Bills
141-Olivo-Kris Brown
142-Gray-Buccaneers
143-Layton-Steelers
144-Gartner-Mike Nugent
145-Swartz-Jim Sorgi
146-Babrisky-Kevin Boss
147-Me-Alge Crumpler
148-Worek-Troy Smith
Get your QB’s early or else you’ll be stuck with the Troy Smith’s and Kyle Orton’s of the world. Just a warning.
Alge Crumpler, if he can stay on the field, will have a top 10 year. The system in Nashville floods the tight end with balls and Alge can catch. He just can’t run that much anymore.
Round 16
149-Worek-Greg Olsen
150-Me-Raiders
151-Babrisky-Texans
152-Swartz-Jason Hanson
153-Layton-Phil Dawson
Round 17
154-Layton-Phil Dawson
155-Swartz-Titans
156-Babrisky-Cardinals
157-Me-Brandon Coutu
158-Worek-Jeff Reed
Round 18
159-Worek-Panthers
160-Me-Felix Jones
161-Babrisky-Matt Stover
Very few players of consequence these last three rounds. I saved Felix Jones for last, even though there were a lot of RB’s still around. Call it my MB3 insurance.
Also, if looking for a sleeper defense, check out the Raiders. They were pretty good already last year and then they added Gibril Wilson and DeAngelo Hall this offseason. You could do a lot worse as many of these draftees have pointed out.
In the end, my roster looks like this:
QB1-Matt Hasselback
QB2-Marc Bulger
QB3-Kurt Warner
RB1-Marion Barber III
RB2-Brandon Jacobs
RB3-Ronnie Brown
RB4-Felix Jones
WR1-Greg Jennings
WR2-Hines Ward
WR3-Patrick Crayton
WR4-DJ Hackett
WR5-Antonio Bryant
TE1-Jeremy Shockey
TE2-Alge Crumpler
K1-Josh Brown
K2-Brandon Coutou
D1-Bears
D2-Raiders
Yeah, it stinks, I know. But who won it all last year? That’s what I thought.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Friday, August 22, 2008
YEA OR NAY FOR AUGUST 22ND
I’ve always had a hard time preparing for fantasy football drafts, thanks in part to fantasy baseball.
After working and slaving over your baseball rosters for nearly five months, I’m always blown away by how many people simply drop out to focus on football. I love the NFL as much as anyone, but I can’t let that hard work go to waste…and my football teams are the ones who suffer for it.
But this year, I’m rededicating myself. My baseball squads are in pretty good order, all three in money contention. So I’ve been putting a little extra time into football, trying to come out ahead, instead of having to play from behind.
This week’s yea or nay will include words of wisdom from both baseball and football...remember, if you’re going to watch any preseason football, do it this weekend, when you’ll get the most bang for your buck. There are a ton of position battles still to be determined and this will likely be the weekend guys separate themselves.
YEA: Let’s start with last night’s Bears-49ers game. Yea to Kevin Jones. I know Matt Forte got the bulk of carries (11-4), but I believe Jones will be the guy, as long as he proves to be healthy. The fact that he is back in the lineup and broke a 34 yarder last night makes me take him before I would Forte. Forte might open the year as the starter, but Jones will end up with better numbers.
YEA: To Michael Bradley. I think he’ll step in and put up similar numbers to what Bernard Berrian did in his last two years in Chicago. Despite all the criticism, Kyle Orton wins games and Bradley will be his go to guy.
NAY: To Frank Gore. The truth of the matter is, Mike Martz cannot make every running back he coaches Marshall Faulk. His track record over the past couple years proves that. I like the fact that Gore is ‘THE MAN’ in the Niners running game, but I would still take Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber and Clinton Portis before him.
NAY: To Vernon Davis. His one catch last night should have been overturned, since he didn’t have both feet in AND he didn’t have control of the ball. We haven’t seen the breakout yet and I doubt we will this season either.
YEA: To Michael Phelps, the greatest swimmer in the world.
NAY: To Michael Phelps, the worlds greatest athlete. That’s just stupid, people. He’s a swimmer. If my 7 year old daughter can do it, than you can’t be called the best athlete in the world.
YEA: To Carl Pavano. Despite all his best efforts, the Yankees are tossing him out there tomorrow against the Orioles. He’s got one month left on his 4 year, 40 million dollar contract and this will be just his 21st start. What makes me smile even more is picturing him signing a one year contract with the Red Sox and then winning 18 games for them next year.
NAY: To an MLB postseason without either the Sox or the Yanks. THAT HASN’T HAPPENED SINCE 1993!!!!
YEA: To Brett Myers. I’m as amazed as anyone that he was able to figure things out, but he has. But I still don’t think the Phils will catch the Mets, unfortunately.
NAY: To the Nationals. I watched this team play three straight nights this week and I feel dirty for doing so. This might be the most boring, impotent team ever created. Ryan Zimmerman hasn’t hit a home run since May. Jesus Flores leads the team with (get ready for this)…..54 RBI. As a team, they’ve stolen 56 bases…or 3 less than Willy Tavares. They actually have Aaron Boone as a contributing player. AARON BOONE!!! And their pitching is no better. If there is one team in all of baseball that is years away from competing, this is it.
YEA: To Matt Schaub finishing the season as a top 10 fantasy QB.
NAY: To the Browns finishing with more than 5 wins. The 2007 Browns were the biggest mirage since Johnny Cueto. My case in point: take a look at their 2007 schedule, where they finished 10-6, just barely missing the playoffs.
Wins: Cincinnati, Baltimore (twice), Miami, St. Louis, Seattle, Houston, NYJets, San Francisco.
Losses: Pittsburgh (twice), Oakland, New England, Arizona, Cincinnati
Of their 10 wins, just one came against a playoff team (Seattle) and the Seahawks are always lousy on the road (3-5 last year). The rest of the wins came against the dregs of the league. The saying goes, to be a high caliber team, you have to win the games that you are supposed to and then win some that you aren’t. The Browns didn’t do that last year…now look at this year’s schedule.
Outside of the six division games (Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore)….Dallas, NY Giants, Washington, Jacksonville, Denver, Buffalo, Houston, Indy, Tennessee, Philadelphia.
You find me six wins.
YEA: To the Buffalo Bills. This will be the 2008 version of the last year’s Browns. 10 wins, mark it down.
YEA: To Thomas Jones. He’s going way too late in everybody’s draft, which is a mistake. He’s got no competition, an improved offensive line and an improved quarterback. He should be going before a lot of the guys who are in timeshares (Selvin Young and Earnest Graham, I’m talking to you).
NAY: To Carson Palmer going as the 5th or 6th quarterback off most draft boards. He was super average last year, minus that big game versus Cleveland. I’d take Schaub, McNabb, Garrard and Favre before Palmer.
YEA: To not taking a running back in the first two rounds. If you don’t pick in the top five, I would definitely consider it. What sounds better: a combo of Brady and Wayne or a combo of Portis and Lewis? If there was ever a year to sit back and wait on RB’s, this is it.
NAY: To Larry Fitzgerald. If Matt Leinart is the starter, I think Fitz’s numbers take a dive. Fitz had just 2 touchdowns in the first 8 games last year, which included two starts by Leinart and another two where Kurt Warner started, but couldn’t finish. Once Warner got his feet under him, Larry took off. I just worry, that’s all.
YEA: To Willie Parker on my team. He’s another guy going way too low. Talk up last year’s two touchdowns and then steal Fast Willie in the 4th round.
NAY: To the Mets for bringing Ryan Church back this season, despite the fact he thinks he still plays for the Nationals. Once a guy gets a concussion, it’s like they become magnets for more and you know Church will either run into a wall or get beaned or crash into the catcher on a play at home. Let the guy sit and clear his head until spring.
NAY: To my NL only waiver claim on Casey Kotchman. I could have had Casey Blake, but I opted for Kotchman, who has since gone 0 for Atlanta.
YEA: To Pablo Sandoval. If you are in an NL only league, grab Sandoval now! The crop of catchers is pretty awful, but Sandoval qualifies and he knows how to hit. Would you rather have Nick Hundley?
NAY: To drafting the Chargers as the number one ST/D. Hard to believe one player could make a difference, but if anyone can, it’s Shawn Merriman. If he can’t play, drop the Chargers down a peg.
YEA: To Livan Hernandez. Still pitching, still awful. Hard to believe he’s gotten worse since leaving Minnesota, but so far in Colorado: 2 starts, 8.2 IP, 15 ER, 2 K’s. I know that I am truly horrible, but isn’t it possible I could do better than this?
For those with drafts this weekend, my revised top 20:
1. LaDanian Tomlinson
2. Brian Westbrook
3. Joseph Addai
4. Steven Jackson
5. Adrian Peterson
6. Tom Brady
7. Marshawn Lynch
8. Marion Barber
9. Randy Moss
10. Clinton Portis
11. Tony Romo
12. Terrell Owens
13. Frank Gore
14. Ryan Grant
15. Reggie Wayne
16. Peyton Manning
17. Willis McGahee
18. Andre Johnson
19. Larry Johnson
20. Maurice Jones-Drew
After working and slaving over your baseball rosters for nearly five months, I’m always blown away by how many people simply drop out to focus on football. I love the NFL as much as anyone, but I can’t let that hard work go to waste…and my football teams are the ones who suffer for it.
But this year, I’m rededicating myself. My baseball squads are in pretty good order, all three in money contention. So I’ve been putting a little extra time into football, trying to come out ahead, instead of having to play from behind.
This week’s yea or nay will include words of wisdom from both baseball and football...remember, if you’re going to watch any preseason football, do it this weekend, when you’ll get the most bang for your buck. There are a ton of position battles still to be determined and this will likely be the weekend guys separate themselves.
YEA: Let’s start with last night’s Bears-49ers game. Yea to Kevin Jones. I know Matt Forte got the bulk of carries (11-4), but I believe Jones will be the guy, as long as he proves to be healthy. The fact that he is back in the lineup and broke a 34 yarder last night makes me take him before I would Forte. Forte might open the year as the starter, but Jones will end up with better numbers.
YEA: To Michael Bradley. I think he’ll step in and put up similar numbers to what Bernard Berrian did in his last two years in Chicago. Despite all the criticism, Kyle Orton wins games and Bradley will be his go to guy.
NAY: To Frank Gore. The truth of the matter is, Mike Martz cannot make every running back he coaches Marshall Faulk. His track record over the past couple years proves that. I like the fact that Gore is ‘THE MAN’ in the Niners running game, but I would still take Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber and Clinton Portis before him.
NAY: To Vernon Davis. His one catch last night should have been overturned, since he didn’t have both feet in AND he didn’t have control of the ball. We haven’t seen the breakout yet and I doubt we will this season either.
YEA: To Michael Phelps, the greatest swimmer in the world.
NAY: To Michael Phelps, the worlds greatest athlete. That’s just stupid, people. He’s a swimmer. If my 7 year old daughter can do it, than you can’t be called the best athlete in the world.
YEA: To Carl Pavano. Despite all his best efforts, the Yankees are tossing him out there tomorrow against the Orioles. He’s got one month left on his 4 year, 40 million dollar contract and this will be just his 21st start. What makes me smile even more is picturing him signing a one year contract with the Red Sox and then winning 18 games for them next year.
NAY: To an MLB postseason without either the Sox or the Yanks. THAT HASN’T HAPPENED SINCE 1993!!!!
YEA: To Brett Myers. I’m as amazed as anyone that he was able to figure things out, but he has. But I still don’t think the Phils will catch the Mets, unfortunately.
NAY: To the Nationals. I watched this team play three straight nights this week and I feel dirty for doing so. This might be the most boring, impotent team ever created. Ryan Zimmerman hasn’t hit a home run since May. Jesus Flores leads the team with (get ready for this)…..54 RBI. As a team, they’ve stolen 56 bases…or 3 less than Willy Tavares. They actually have Aaron Boone as a contributing player. AARON BOONE!!! And their pitching is no better. If there is one team in all of baseball that is years away from competing, this is it.
YEA: To Matt Schaub finishing the season as a top 10 fantasy QB.
NAY: To the Browns finishing with more than 5 wins. The 2007 Browns were the biggest mirage since Johnny Cueto. My case in point: take a look at their 2007 schedule, where they finished 10-6, just barely missing the playoffs.
Wins: Cincinnati, Baltimore (twice), Miami, St. Louis, Seattle, Houston, NYJets, San Francisco.
Losses: Pittsburgh (twice), Oakland, New England, Arizona, Cincinnati
Of their 10 wins, just one came against a playoff team (Seattle) and the Seahawks are always lousy on the road (3-5 last year). The rest of the wins came against the dregs of the league. The saying goes, to be a high caliber team, you have to win the games that you are supposed to and then win some that you aren’t. The Browns didn’t do that last year…now look at this year’s schedule.
Outside of the six division games (Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore)….Dallas, NY Giants, Washington, Jacksonville, Denver, Buffalo, Houston, Indy, Tennessee, Philadelphia.
You find me six wins.
YEA: To the Buffalo Bills. This will be the 2008 version of the last year’s Browns. 10 wins, mark it down.
YEA: To Thomas Jones. He’s going way too late in everybody’s draft, which is a mistake. He’s got no competition, an improved offensive line and an improved quarterback. He should be going before a lot of the guys who are in timeshares (Selvin Young and Earnest Graham, I’m talking to you).
NAY: To Carson Palmer going as the 5th or 6th quarterback off most draft boards. He was super average last year, minus that big game versus Cleveland. I’d take Schaub, McNabb, Garrard and Favre before Palmer.
YEA: To not taking a running back in the first two rounds. If you don’t pick in the top five, I would definitely consider it. What sounds better: a combo of Brady and Wayne or a combo of Portis and Lewis? If there was ever a year to sit back and wait on RB’s, this is it.
NAY: To Larry Fitzgerald. If Matt Leinart is the starter, I think Fitz’s numbers take a dive. Fitz had just 2 touchdowns in the first 8 games last year, which included two starts by Leinart and another two where Kurt Warner started, but couldn’t finish. Once Warner got his feet under him, Larry took off. I just worry, that’s all.
YEA: To Willie Parker on my team. He’s another guy going way too low. Talk up last year’s two touchdowns and then steal Fast Willie in the 4th round.
NAY: To the Mets for bringing Ryan Church back this season, despite the fact he thinks he still plays for the Nationals. Once a guy gets a concussion, it’s like they become magnets for more and you know Church will either run into a wall or get beaned or crash into the catcher on a play at home. Let the guy sit and clear his head until spring.
NAY: To my NL only waiver claim on Casey Kotchman. I could have had Casey Blake, but I opted for Kotchman, who has since gone 0 for Atlanta.
YEA: To Pablo Sandoval. If you are in an NL only league, grab Sandoval now! The crop of catchers is pretty awful, but Sandoval qualifies and he knows how to hit. Would you rather have Nick Hundley?
NAY: To drafting the Chargers as the number one ST/D. Hard to believe one player could make a difference, but if anyone can, it’s Shawn Merriman. If he can’t play, drop the Chargers down a peg.
YEA: To Livan Hernandez. Still pitching, still awful. Hard to believe he’s gotten worse since leaving Minnesota, but so far in Colorado: 2 starts, 8.2 IP, 15 ER, 2 K’s. I know that I am truly horrible, but isn’t it possible I could do better than this?
For those with drafts this weekend, my revised top 20:
1. LaDanian Tomlinson
2. Brian Westbrook
3. Joseph Addai
4. Steven Jackson
5. Adrian Peterson
6. Tom Brady
7. Marshawn Lynch
8. Marion Barber
9. Randy Moss
10. Clinton Portis
11. Tony Romo
12. Terrell Owens
13. Frank Gore
14. Ryan Grant
15. Reggie Wayne
16. Peyton Manning
17. Willis McGahee
18. Andre Johnson
19. Larry Johnson
20. Maurice Jones-Drew
Monday, August 18, 2008
BACK FROM THE DEAD
When the summer started, I thought to myself ‘The kids will play outside all day and I’ll be able to write something for the blog 3 or 4 times per week.’
I can’t exactly pinpoint where things went wrong, but since my daughter got off that school bus on the last day of school back in June, I’ve had exactly 27 minutes total to myself. Trust me, I’ve been counting.
In these past two months, I’ve seen my 7 year old daughter begin to show signs of what it will be like when she is a teenager and I’m scared out of my wits. If she can act like this now, I should probably just lock myself in the bathroom the day she turns 13.
My 4 year old son has turned from a tyke into a boy, as he has gone from Thomas the Tank Engine and Diego to Star Wars and Indiana Jones. It’s nice watching Empire over the Wonderpets, but today marked the 23rd viewing and Yoda is starting to get on my nerves.
It’s nice to see all the old Star Wars toys coming back into vogue, though. On our last visit to Toys R Us I came across the most recent incarnation of the Millenium Falcon. It’s a lot more fancy than that plastic piece of junk I used to have, but for 160 dollars it had better be. (no, I didn’t buy it…..but I wanted to)
There are about six weeks left in the baseball regular season, so you should definitely know by now if you’ve got a shot to come in the money. If you play head to head, most playoffs begin in a week or two, so get those pitching staffs lined up.
I was going over some stats yesterday and I realized that there are just some ridiculously fluky numbers out there that nobody is mentioning. Just going to show you that nobody can predict nothing.
-Josh Beckett: A top 10 starter coming into the season, Beckett has just 11 wins and an ERA of 4.34. He’s continuing a trend of up in odd number years, down in even numbered. But if he was pitching like he’s capable, the Sox wouldn’t be looking up at the Rays, they’d be looking down.
-BJ Upton and Alex Rios-Last year, these two combined to hit 48 homers. This year, they’ve only got 17 between them. Both were concensus first round picks in AL only and both are stealing bases like crazy. But the bombs just around there like they were expected.
-Justin Verlander-So much for all those predictions of this guy making ‘the leap’. He’s been a nightmare, with an ERA over 4.60 and even a drop in strikeouts. And things don’t seem to be improving, having given up 25 earned runs over his last 5 starts.
-The Twins-I have to put this whole team in this category, because with the trade of Johan Santana, the Twinks were supposed to be rebuilding. Instead, they’ve got a better record than both the Yankees and the Mets, the two teams that led the charge in the Johan sweepstakes. The Mets can’t be disappointed in what their end, because Johan has been as advertised, especially recently. But the fact that the Twins continue to win with their minimal payroll is an amazing testament to their organization. Throw in the fact that they were able to withstand the toilet arm that is Livan Hernandez for 4 months and their current spot atop the AL Central is all the more amazing.
-Jason Kendall-I know the guy stinks at the plate (1 home run in 393 at-bats), but Kendall is an iron man in a league proliferated with candyasses (Milton Bradley, I’m calling you out). Kendall has caught 113 of the Brewers 125 games. Since July, Kendall has missed just two games. He’s a guy who wants to compete and win and a guy everybody should want on their team.
-Brian Giles-And onto the polar opposite of Kendall. Since the league cracked down on steroids and other goodies, Giles has evaporated, in both stats and stature. San Diego tried to move Giles after the waiver deadline and had a deal in place with Boston, but Giles refused to go. Thank god for that, because the last thing the Sox needed was a 37 year old lead footed lefty with no power left to speak of. Plus, it speaks volumes when a guy refuses to move to a squad for two months, when he’s got a chance of getting a World Series ring. I still remember when Rafael Palmeiro refused to leave Texas for the Cubs a few years back. I know you guys love your families and all, but it’s TWO MONTHS! The drive to win is just not with these guys and they deserve to play in places like San Diego and Arlington.
-Melky Cabrera-I’ve been saying for two years now that Cabrera is a waste of space and my Yankee friends have been calling me a bitter Sox fan. Now, Cabrera is in the minors and I am proven right once again. So, you want Johan for Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy? When Twins GM Bill Smith hung up the phone after that conversation, how hard do you think he laughed?
-Randy Johnson-I admit, I gave up on the Unit in my mixed league back in June after he gave up 14 earned runs in a week. But it turns out my original hunch was correct. When he’s healthy, like he is now, he’s a top pitcher in the game. Still, at the age of 44. Since the All-Star break, Johnson is 4-2 with an ERA of 1.56 and a WHIP under 1.00. He doesn’t strike out 10 guys a game like he used to, but you can’t complain about the other numbers.
-Ian Stewart-The last time we spoke I mentioned Stewart, who had just been handed the starting third base job. Hopefully you listened, because Stewart is already up to 8-32-.285, in just 147 at bats. Throw in that second base eligibility and you’ve got yourself a strong middle infielder, even in mixed leagues.
-Jensen Lewis-It’s no fun being an Indians fan this year, but they are still worth paying attention to. The closer situation seems like it might have finally found a solution, with hardthrowing Jensen Lewis, who has gotten the last three saves for the Tribe. After a massive rough patch in July, Lewis has gone 8 straight outings without giving up a run and seems to have earned the confidence of manager Eric Wedge. Saves are saves, even in Ohio.
-Trevor Hoffman-And since we are on the topic of saves, the all time saves leader is showing he still has what it takes. Hoffman stunk in the early going, helping to bury the Padres in the NL West. But after having an ERA above 6 back in May, the Hoff is down close to 4 now and the saves are now up to 26. Hoff has more saves than K-Rod in August.
-Wily Tavares-Did you know Wily leads the majors in steals with 58? Me neither. And it’s not even close.
-Jacoby Ellsbury-And on the topic of steals, remember when Ellsbury had 34 steals back in June and he looked like the Native American version of Vince Coleman? I do, because I played against Ellsbury the week he stole 9 bases. Anyway, over the past two months, Ellsbury has stolen a grand total of 4 bags. So much for that.
-Carlos Quentin-He leads the majors in home runs. I’m not kidding. Not bad for a guy who went undrafted in most leagues. If you took a flier on him, chances are you are going to win some money.
-Dan Uggla-He had 23 home runs heading into the break. He’s had just 3 since, including ZERO in all of August. And it’s not just homers that are vanishing. Uggla has driven in just 3 runs this month (all on 8/10) and scored just 6 runs.
-Carlos Silva and Miguel Batista-Looking back, the Erik Bedard trade was bad. The signing of Richie Sexson was terrible. The mega contract given to singles hitter Ichiro was bordering on asinine. But the signing of Carlos Silva might have been the worst move ever made by the old regime in Seattle. 4 years/48 million dollars. For a guy who’s season high for strikeouts was 89 in 202 IP. For a guy who in four years as a starter was 2 games over .500 and had an ERA of 4.42. For a guy who has given up an average of 235 hits per year over the past four years! Year one of that golden parachute has produced a 4-14 record, 6.36 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 59 K’s and 191 hits allowed in just 140 IP. That’s 3 million dollars for each win this season and $203,000 for each guy he struck out.
And let’s not forget about Miguel Batista, who, paired with Silva, could possibly form the worst pair of starters in HISTORY. Batista has somehow been actually worse than Silva. Both have 4 wins and Silva leads in the loss category 14 to 12. But Batista outdoes his mate in ERA and WHIP, with a 6.63 and a 1.92!!! Amazingly, it has taken Batista less than 100 IP to put up these gaudy numbers. Now you know exactly why the M’s sent Brandon Morrow back to the minors to learn how to be a starter.
-Roy Hallday-I admit, I was among the ones who thought Halladay might be on his way out of the elite pitching ranks. After seeing his ERA and WHIP rise significantly the last two years, I thought Doc’s best days might have been behind him. But he’s back this year with a vengeance and he’s a Cliff Lee relapse away from being the Cy Young favorite. 2.64 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 14 wins and 8 complete games. Even the K’s are back up, on pace to crack 200 for just the second time in his career. For those of us who took Bedard and Verlander ahead of Roy are pretty bummed out.
-Jimmy Rollins-We knew it would be impossible to duplicate 2007, but this is getting so out of hand. Even factoring in the lost three weeks due to a sprained ankle, the numbers are worrisome. 30 home runs down to 8. .296 average down to .266. 94 RBI down to 42. And the most amazing: 139 runs down to 56! The steals are still there, 41 down to 31, but it’s the runs scored which made me do a double take. Reyes and Ramirez are holding up their ends of the bargain, but J-Roll seems like he just can’t keep up with the young guys.
-Matt Cain-Hasn’t given up a home run since June 4th. That’s 13 starts. If the Giants could get a lick of hitting and not thrown money down the toilet on guys like Aaron Rowand, they could ride Cain and Tim Lincecum to the top of the NL West. Either way, these two guys are both very young and very phenomenal.
-Randy Winn-Mr. Irrelevant, because nobody ever seems to want him on their squad. But over his last 21 games, Winn is hitting .434, with 13 RBI, 15 runs and 3 SB.
I’ve got to go. Luke just got his hand cut off by Vader. Maybe I can convince him to watch Jedi for a change. Check back later this week for some free fantasy football rankings.
I can’t exactly pinpoint where things went wrong, but since my daughter got off that school bus on the last day of school back in June, I’ve had exactly 27 minutes total to myself. Trust me, I’ve been counting.
In these past two months, I’ve seen my 7 year old daughter begin to show signs of what it will be like when she is a teenager and I’m scared out of my wits. If she can act like this now, I should probably just lock myself in the bathroom the day she turns 13.
My 4 year old son has turned from a tyke into a boy, as he has gone from Thomas the Tank Engine and Diego to Star Wars and Indiana Jones. It’s nice watching Empire over the Wonderpets, but today marked the 23rd viewing and Yoda is starting to get on my nerves.
It’s nice to see all the old Star Wars toys coming back into vogue, though. On our last visit to Toys R Us I came across the most recent incarnation of the Millenium Falcon. It’s a lot more fancy than that plastic piece of junk I used to have, but for 160 dollars it had better be. (no, I didn’t buy it…..but I wanted to)
There are about six weeks left in the baseball regular season, so you should definitely know by now if you’ve got a shot to come in the money. If you play head to head, most playoffs begin in a week or two, so get those pitching staffs lined up.
I was going over some stats yesterday and I realized that there are just some ridiculously fluky numbers out there that nobody is mentioning. Just going to show you that nobody can predict nothing.
-Josh Beckett: A top 10 starter coming into the season, Beckett has just 11 wins and an ERA of 4.34. He’s continuing a trend of up in odd number years, down in even numbered. But if he was pitching like he’s capable, the Sox wouldn’t be looking up at the Rays, they’d be looking down.
-BJ Upton and Alex Rios-Last year, these two combined to hit 48 homers. This year, they’ve only got 17 between them. Both were concensus first round picks in AL only and both are stealing bases like crazy. But the bombs just around there like they were expected.
-Justin Verlander-So much for all those predictions of this guy making ‘the leap’. He’s been a nightmare, with an ERA over 4.60 and even a drop in strikeouts. And things don’t seem to be improving, having given up 25 earned runs over his last 5 starts.
-The Twins-I have to put this whole team in this category, because with the trade of Johan Santana, the Twinks were supposed to be rebuilding. Instead, they’ve got a better record than both the Yankees and the Mets, the two teams that led the charge in the Johan sweepstakes. The Mets can’t be disappointed in what their end, because Johan has been as advertised, especially recently. But the fact that the Twins continue to win with their minimal payroll is an amazing testament to their organization. Throw in the fact that they were able to withstand the toilet arm that is Livan Hernandez for 4 months and their current spot atop the AL Central is all the more amazing.
-Jason Kendall-I know the guy stinks at the plate (1 home run in 393 at-bats), but Kendall is an iron man in a league proliferated with candyasses (Milton Bradley, I’m calling you out). Kendall has caught 113 of the Brewers 125 games. Since July, Kendall has missed just two games. He’s a guy who wants to compete and win and a guy everybody should want on their team.
-Brian Giles-And onto the polar opposite of Kendall. Since the league cracked down on steroids and other goodies, Giles has evaporated, in both stats and stature. San Diego tried to move Giles after the waiver deadline and had a deal in place with Boston, but Giles refused to go. Thank god for that, because the last thing the Sox needed was a 37 year old lead footed lefty with no power left to speak of. Plus, it speaks volumes when a guy refuses to move to a squad for two months, when he’s got a chance of getting a World Series ring. I still remember when Rafael Palmeiro refused to leave Texas for the Cubs a few years back. I know you guys love your families and all, but it’s TWO MONTHS! The drive to win is just not with these guys and they deserve to play in places like San Diego and Arlington.
-Melky Cabrera-I’ve been saying for two years now that Cabrera is a waste of space and my Yankee friends have been calling me a bitter Sox fan. Now, Cabrera is in the minors and I am proven right once again. So, you want Johan for Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy? When Twins GM Bill Smith hung up the phone after that conversation, how hard do you think he laughed?
-Randy Johnson-I admit, I gave up on the Unit in my mixed league back in June after he gave up 14 earned runs in a week. But it turns out my original hunch was correct. When he’s healthy, like he is now, he’s a top pitcher in the game. Still, at the age of 44. Since the All-Star break, Johnson is 4-2 with an ERA of 1.56 and a WHIP under 1.00. He doesn’t strike out 10 guys a game like he used to, but you can’t complain about the other numbers.
-Ian Stewart-The last time we spoke I mentioned Stewart, who had just been handed the starting third base job. Hopefully you listened, because Stewart is already up to 8-32-.285, in just 147 at bats. Throw in that second base eligibility and you’ve got yourself a strong middle infielder, even in mixed leagues.
-Jensen Lewis-It’s no fun being an Indians fan this year, but they are still worth paying attention to. The closer situation seems like it might have finally found a solution, with hardthrowing Jensen Lewis, who has gotten the last three saves for the Tribe. After a massive rough patch in July, Lewis has gone 8 straight outings without giving up a run and seems to have earned the confidence of manager Eric Wedge. Saves are saves, even in Ohio.
-Trevor Hoffman-And since we are on the topic of saves, the all time saves leader is showing he still has what it takes. Hoffman stunk in the early going, helping to bury the Padres in the NL West. But after having an ERA above 6 back in May, the Hoff is down close to 4 now and the saves are now up to 26. Hoff has more saves than K-Rod in August.
-Wily Tavares-Did you know Wily leads the majors in steals with 58? Me neither. And it’s not even close.
-Jacoby Ellsbury-And on the topic of steals, remember when Ellsbury had 34 steals back in June and he looked like the Native American version of Vince Coleman? I do, because I played against Ellsbury the week he stole 9 bases. Anyway, over the past two months, Ellsbury has stolen a grand total of 4 bags. So much for that.
-Carlos Quentin-He leads the majors in home runs. I’m not kidding. Not bad for a guy who went undrafted in most leagues. If you took a flier on him, chances are you are going to win some money.
-Dan Uggla-He had 23 home runs heading into the break. He’s had just 3 since, including ZERO in all of August. And it’s not just homers that are vanishing. Uggla has driven in just 3 runs this month (all on 8/10) and scored just 6 runs.
-Carlos Silva and Miguel Batista-Looking back, the Erik Bedard trade was bad. The signing of Richie Sexson was terrible. The mega contract given to singles hitter Ichiro was bordering on asinine. But the signing of Carlos Silva might have been the worst move ever made by the old regime in Seattle. 4 years/48 million dollars. For a guy who’s season high for strikeouts was 89 in 202 IP. For a guy who in four years as a starter was 2 games over .500 and had an ERA of 4.42. For a guy who has given up an average of 235 hits per year over the past four years! Year one of that golden parachute has produced a 4-14 record, 6.36 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 59 K’s and 191 hits allowed in just 140 IP. That’s 3 million dollars for each win this season and $203,000 for each guy he struck out.
And let’s not forget about Miguel Batista, who, paired with Silva, could possibly form the worst pair of starters in HISTORY. Batista has somehow been actually worse than Silva. Both have 4 wins and Silva leads in the loss category 14 to 12. But Batista outdoes his mate in ERA and WHIP, with a 6.63 and a 1.92!!! Amazingly, it has taken Batista less than 100 IP to put up these gaudy numbers. Now you know exactly why the M’s sent Brandon Morrow back to the minors to learn how to be a starter.
-Roy Hallday-I admit, I was among the ones who thought Halladay might be on his way out of the elite pitching ranks. After seeing his ERA and WHIP rise significantly the last two years, I thought Doc’s best days might have been behind him. But he’s back this year with a vengeance and he’s a Cliff Lee relapse away from being the Cy Young favorite. 2.64 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 14 wins and 8 complete games. Even the K’s are back up, on pace to crack 200 for just the second time in his career. For those of us who took Bedard and Verlander ahead of Roy are pretty bummed out.
-Jimmy Rollins-We knew it would be impossible to duplicate 2007, but this is getting so out of hand. Even factoring in the lost three weeks due to a sprained ankle, the numbers are worrisome. 30 home runs down to 8. .296 average down to .266. 94 RBI down to 42. And the most amazing: 139 runs down to 56! The steals are still there, 41 down to 31, but it’s the runs scored which made me do a double take. Reyes and Ramirez are holding up their ends of the bargain, but J-Roll seems like he just can’t keep up with the young guys.
-Matt Cain-Hasn’t given up a home run since June 4th. That’s 13 starts. If the Giants could get a lick of hitting and not thrown money down the toilet on guys like Aaron Rowand, they could ride Cain and Tim Lincecum to the top of the NL West. Either way, these two guys are both very young and very phenomenal.
-Randy Winn-Mr. Irrelevant, because nobody ever seems to want him on their squad. But over his last 21 games, Winn is hitting .434, with 13 RBI, 15 runs and 3 SB.
I’ve got to go. Luke just got his hand cut off by Vader. Maybe I can convince him to watch Jedi for a change. Check back later this week for some free fantasy football rankings.
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