AL CENTRAL FANTASY PREVIEW

Oh no, not my DuQuan!! If that didn’t break your heart seeing Dookie shooting up in the alley, you’re missing a chromosome. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, you are doing yourself a major disservice by not watching ‘The Wire.’ Gutwrenching is all I can say.

If you thought you were having a bad March, just be grateful you’re not Kaz Matsui (anal fissure) or Felix Pie (testicular torsion?!?) That second one in particular makes me cringe and I have no idea what the hell it is.

My first ‘big’ draft is this weekend. A 12 team, head to head mixed leaguer. Here are my predictions for the first two rounds. I’ll recap next week and see how close I was:

1-A-Rod, 2-Hanley Ramirez, 3-David Wright, 4-Jose Reyes, 5-Jimmy Rollins, 6-Chase Utley, 7-Miguel Cabrera, 8-Albert Pujols, 9-Matt Holliday, 10-Johan Santana, 11-Ryan Howard, 12-Prince Fielder

Round 2
13-Carl Crawford, 14-David Ortiz, 15-Vlad Guerrero, 16-Grady Sizemore, 17-Ichiro, 18-Alfonso Soriano, 19-Carlos Lee, 20-Jake Peavy, 21-Mark Teixeira, 22-Lance Berkman, 23-Carlos Beltran, 24-Justin Morneau

Keep in mind that this is a keeper league and Ryan Braun, Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton and Magglio Ordonez (all potential picks in the first two rounds) were protected. Unfortunately, none of them by me, at picks 11 and 14.

Let’s roll into the AL Central. As always, teams are listed in order of predicted finish.


Cleveland Indians

The Tigers are the heavy favorites to win this division, but I still like the Tribe, for two simple reasons. Sabathia and Carmona. You can’t ever stress the importance of having two young horses atop your rotation, neither of which seem to ever get hurt or get blown out of games.

Projected Lineup

1-Grady Sizemore-CF
2-Asdrubal Cabrera-2B
3-Travis Hafner-DH
4-Victor Martinez-C
5-Casey Blake-3B
6-Ryan Garko-1B
7-Jhonny Peralta-SS
8-Franklin Gutierrez-RF
9-David Dellucci-LF

You’ve also got to love the fact that the Indians return the exact same lineup as they had last season when they made it to within one game of the World Series. Continuity is a lot more important than you realize.

It seems like Sizemore has been around forever, yet he’s only 25 years old. He finally stepped up the stolen bases last year, breaking the 30 barrier for the first time. His average dipped a little, but not enough for it to be a concern. He could easily be the first outfielder off the board in the AL. Mixed leaguers prepare to take him early in the second round.

Cabrera took over the second base job when Josh Barfield couldn’t hang. Cabrera doesn’t give you a ton of steals or homers, but he’ll get on base and score runs, which is what a good number 2 hitter is all about.

Hafner, Hafner, Hafner. The ‘No Country For Old Men’ lookalike ruined many a fantasy squad last year. Pronk went in the second round of most drafts in 2007, but his 24 homers and .266 average surprised everyone. Where the lefty slugger will go this year is a big question mark, but anywhere before the late third, early fourth would seem too early.

Every year, somebody goes out and grabs the top rated catcher way too early. This year, it will be Victor Martinez, thanks to his monster 2007. Russell Martin steals bases, but V-Mart does everything else and better. Problem is, he’s a catcher and crazy things happen to catchers. A nick here, a pull there. Victor has averaged over 550 at bats over the past three seasons and it’s about time it caught up with him. Just a hunch.

Casey Blake seems to me to be overrated by many. His numbers last season were nothing more than ordinary (18-78-.270). Throw in the fact he’s 34 and looks like Hillbilly Jim and I can’t endorse anything more than a late round flier. If he’s your starting third baseman, I’m sorry.

Ryan Garko, on the other hand, is just 27 and could bust out with 30 homers this year. 2007 was his first full year in the bigs and even then, he only got 484 at bats. That was mainly thanks to V-Mart taking over at first every couple of games, but hopefully that will change this year. Take him over stiffs like Carlos Delgado and Casey Kotchman.

Peralta bounced back last year from his sophomore slump of 2006 and made himself a top 5 AL only shortstop. Only 25, there is still room to get even better. 20-25 homers from your shortstop is fine with me.

If there is one weakspot in the Indians’ lineup, it’s with their corner outfielders. Gutierrez smacked 13 homers in just 271 at bats last year, but struck out 77 times along the way. Over a full season, he could go 20-20, or he could be back in Buffalo by June. Chances are he’ll stick and he’s definitely worth a couple bucks in AL only. Like I said, good outfielders are hard to find. Case in point, left field…David Dellucci or Jason Michaels, neither of whom deserve your attention.

Starting Rotation

1-CC Sabathia
2-Fausto Carmona
3-Paul Byrd
4-Jake Westbrook
5-Aaron Laffey

27 years old. Contract year. Increased strikeouts each of the last three seasons. 37 walks in 241 IP!! There is nothing bad to say about C.C. Hopefully he’s a Red Sock in 2009.

Carmona was atrocious in 2006. I know because I took a chance on him when the Tribe called him up and tried to make him their closer. So, in 2007, I stayed far away. Mistake. The move to the rotation made Fausto and fantasy owners very happy. I think his numbers have to go up a little bit, but it shouldn’t be much. A 3.06 ERA is not easy to duplicate.

Byrd reminds me of Wakefield…the numbers are ugly, but he’ll win games for you. None of that should change in ’08, just be prepared to take the good with the bad.

Westbrook missed time with an injury last year and wound up winning just 6 games. The good news is he looked much better after the injury then before. He’s been a model of consistency for many years and should get back to double digit wins this year.

Laffey is still too young and raw to bother with. He could prove valuable someday, just not yet.

Bullpen

CL-Joe Borowski
SU1-Rafael Betancourt
SU2-Rafael Perez

Borowski’s ERA and WHIP were awful last year, yet he still saved 45 games. Most of his bad stats came from a couple of really, really bad outings. But consider the fact that Cleveland has some very good relievers in the pen and not once did they remove Joe from his closer’s spot. That speaks volumes. The job is his, regardless of how dominant Betancourt is. Borowski is going way too late in drafts, but that’s good. Take advantage and get 40 saves in the 15th round. Be my guest.


Detroit Tigers

Even I can’t believe this lineup when I look at it. 1000 runs could happen. But the starting rotation scares the heck out of me. And don’t even get me started on the bullpen. It will end up costing the Tigers in the end.

Projected Lineup

1-Curtis Granderson-CF
2-Placido Polanco-2B
3-Miguel Cabrera-3B
4-Magglio Ordonez-RF
5-Garry Sheffield-DH
6-Carlos Guillen-1B
7-Edgar Renteria-SS
8-Ivan Rodriguez-C
9-Jacques Jones-LF

You see what I was saying about this lineup? Granderson broke the bank last year, hitting .302, scoring 122 runs, homering 23 times and swiping 26 bases. Not much more you can ask for, though history seems to indicate a repeat in average could be difficult.

Polanco reached 200 hits for the first time ever last year and batted a robust .341. Runs and average are about all you can rely on from Placido, but he’s above average in both.

The only thing that has people worried about Cabrera is the chance in leagues. If there is an adjustment period, expect it to be short lived. He’s a first round pick and maybe if you’re lucky, he’ll get off to a slow start and you can get him cheap off an impatient owner.

Ordonez was unreal last season and deserved more MVP consideration than he received. It’s not easy hitting .363. Don’t let him fall past the second round.

Sheff prior to his shoulder injury-.306, 23 home runs. Sheff after injury-.224, 2 home runs. Another guy who is going too late. If not for the injury last year, Sheff would have probably gone 35-110-.300. Know what? His shoulder is fine now. Steal’em.

This will be the last year you get to enjoy Carlos Guillen as a shortstop as he has officially moved his stone hands to first base. The move should help his sketchy health. A top notch pick who should go no later than the fifth round.

Renteria’s move to the AL didn’t work the first time and I’m a little leery about it this time as well. He doesn’t steal bases anymore and his power is so-so. His .332 average last year seems a little out of place and I wouldn’t take him unless desparate.

Pudge is in a contract year and this will be the last chance for him to get a big deal. Look for a bounce back, though considering last year’s numbers, that’s not all that great. Not a top notch option anymore.

Jones bottomed out in Chicago last year, going from 27 home runs to just 5. Funny thing is, most of the other typical numbers were there. Maybe a return to the AL will do Jacques some good.

Starting Rotation

1-Justin Verlander
2-Jeremy Bonderman
3-Dontrelle Willis
4-Kenny Rogers
5-Nate Robertson

Everybody loves Justin and deservedly so. The ERA needs to come down for him to be considered a true fantasy ace. 3.66 ERA is nice, but we need better. Bring it down half a point and he’s a second round pick. It’s all there for him to put it together.

We were all ready for Bonderman to make the leap in 2007, instead he fell off the cliff and his ERA blew up over 5. Only 25, it was only a year ago that Bonderman struck out 200 batters. Worth a mixed league pick, but not until the later rounds.

If there is a pitcher I am avoiding like the plague, it’s Dontrelle Willis. He simply looked worn out last season and by September, barely warranted NL only consideration. Do you know what a 1.60 WHIP does to a fantasy team over 200 innings? Since his amazing 2005, all the numbers have been dropping. A move to the AL will not help.

I was looking through a fantasy baseball book I had saved from 1990 and whose name did I come across? Kenny Rogers. Take that however you want to.

Nate Robertson completed the trifecta of Tigers pitchers whose stats went down instead of up in 2007. K’s, ERA, WHIP, wins. All down. The goggles are cool and all, but not cool enough for me to draft him.

Bullpen

CL-Todd Jones
SU1-Fernando Rodney
SU2-Joel Zumaya

And the final nail in the coffin for the Tigers. The bullpen is in shambles and there is no help in sight. What they need to do is trade Brandon Inge for some bullpen help, but who am I? It’s just spring training, but Todd Jones has been getting torched. Rodney has been shutdown with a sore shoulder. Zumaya still hasn’t recovered from his Guitar Hero injury. Somebody get Jim Leyland a Winston.


Chicago White Sox

I’m not sure what it is about this team, but I like it. I can’t put my finger on it, because their starting pitching is pretty crappy. Maybe it’s because Ozzie Guillen says he held back too much last year and this year that will change. Maybe it’s because I really like the moves they made in the offseason. Maybe it’s because I still have hope for Gavin Floyd. Yes, I am the one, I know.

Projected Lineup

1-Orlando Cabrera-SS
2-Nick Swisher-CF
3-Jim Thome-DH
4-Paul Konerko-1B
5-Jermaine Dye-LF
6-AJ Pierzynski-C
7-Josh Fields-3B
8-Carlos Quentin/Jerry Owens-RF
9-Juan Uribe-2B

After three productive seasons in Anaheim, Cabrera will move to the top of the White Sox lineup, a position he is not used to. Cabrera has the speed to thrive there, but his lifetime OBP is just .321. Still, he’s a nice fantasy player who should score 100 times, steal 25 bases and will even drive in a good number.

Swisher came over to the Second City in the Oakland purge. Never a great hitter for average, the move out of the Coliseum should help his power numbers. 30 homers should be a lock, but so should be a .260 average.

Thome took a step backwards in ’07, falling across the boards in all categories. He’s missed time each of the past three seasons due to injuries and at 37, don’t expect that to change. Strictly qualifies at DH, but still could go 35-100.

Nobody in the White Sox lineup tumbled as much as Konerko, going from 35-113-.313, to 31-90-.259. Not terrible, but the precipitous drop in average is worrisome.

Jermaine Dye has been written off more than most anybody, but he keeps coming back and putting up solid numbers. Dye missed some time with nagging injuries last year and fought off an awful first half to put up decent power numbers. Another guy whose batting average plummeted, his by 61 points!

Pierzynski is a guy I always try to avoid, but he always seems to be available on waivers (in mixed leagues, that is). He’s right on that cusp of mixed league catchers. There are better, younger options out there with more upside. AJ will hit 15, drive in 60 and bat .265. Why bother?

The Sox say that if they can’t move Joe Crede, Josh Fields might start the season in Triple A. I call bull*#*#. Fields hit 23 homers in just 100 games last year. Granted, he struck out once every 3 at bats, but that’s what rookies do. Sending him to Charlotte doesn’t serve anybody. Don’t believe what you hear. Fields will be starting for the big team come April.

Carlos Quentin was a big time prospect for Arizona who seemed to finally find a space to play in Chicago. Then, Jerry Owens started to hit and now nobody knows what is going to happen. For fantasy purposes, I personally want to see Quentin. We know what Owens can do….steal bases. That’s about it. Quentin has been touted for a long time and I’d like to see what he does with the opportunity.

I don’t know how Juan Uribe keeps hitting 20 home runs each year, but he does. But a .234 average over 500 at-bats is fantasy suicide.

Starting Rotation

1-Mark Buehrle
2-Javier Vazquez
3-John Danks
4-Jose Contreras
5-Gavin Floyd

As much as I’m rooting for the ChiSox, that is one awful 3-4-5 in their rotation.

Buehrle was awesome last year. Then he got a contract extension and he became awfully okay. He’s a nice 4th or 5th guy for your fantasy rotation. If he is your ace, you may as well dump out now.

Javy Vazquez is one of those head cases who can look masterful one moment, then simply tune out the next. Remember his years in Montreal? It seems like ages ago, but he had some amazing years. The only years, in fact, that can compare to what he did last year. He has the talent to repeat the success of 2007, but whether he does or not is a big ? If you want to find out, you’ll have to pay up, because he’s going real early in most drafts.

Danks, Contreras and Floyd combined to pitch 398 innings in 2007. If you were unlucky enough to come anywhere near any of them, you have my sympathy. We knew Floyd and Danks were lousy, but Contreras was even worse. Mainly due to the fact that he just kept on pitching!! I really can’t say what happened to Jose in June of 2006, but since then, he has possibly been the worst starting pitcher in baseball. Avoid all three, no matter what anyone tells you.

Bullpen

CL-Bobby Jenks
SU1-Scott Linebrink
SU2-Octavio Dotel

While the rotation struggles, the bullpen is actually a strength for the White Sox. Jenks’ K’s were down in ’07, but he made up for it in other categories, producing his best stats to date. 40 saves on this club is a statement. Throw in Linebrink, Dotel and Mike MacDougal and the Sox could win a lot of games if they can just have a lead heading to the 7th.


Minnesota Twins

I’m still mad at the Twins for giving away Johan and I would jump for joy if they somehow could finish behind the Royals. Unfortunately, it’s not going to happen.

Projected Lineup

1-Carlos Gomez-CF
2-Joe Mauer-C
3-Delmon Young-RF
4-Justin Morneau-1B
5-Michael Cuddyer-RF
6-Jason Kubel-DH
7-Mike Lamb-3B
8-Brendan Harris-2B
9-Adam Everett-SS

Let’s not avoid the elephant in the room. Nobody else is saying it, but I will. Carlos Gomez is nothing special. He is exceptionally fast and god bless him for it. But if you can’t get on base, how much is that speed going to help you? I’m glad the Twins are giving him the starting centerfield job, only because I’m a big believer in learning on the job. Anybody who boo-hoo’s and says they are going to ruin his psyche can jump in a lake. Toughen up kid. Show us you can do it or find another line of work.

Joe Mauer is up there with Derek Jeter as the most overhyped fantasy players around. Okay, Mauer hit .347 in 2006. But 13 homers don’t get me excited. 8 steals don’t drive me to call out his name. I’m beginning to think I’m biased against guys who have good averages and little else. Too bad. On the cusp of being a mixed leaguer. Don’t kid yourself into something he is not.

Delmon Young had a strange 2007. Known around the league as that guy who hit the ump with a bat in the minors, Young played in every game for the Rays last year and almost won the rookie of the year. The RBI’s were nice (93), the steals were okay (10), the average was fine (.288). But what happened to the power? (13) He’s apparently doing everything right in Minnesota and I think you would be wise to take Delmon as your third or fourth outfielder. The power stroke is there and he should find it this year.

Justin Morneau is top notch, but why a 50 point drop in average? He won’t hit .321 this year, but he also won’t hit .271. A top five first baseman.

When Cuddyer lost that 2nd and 3rd base eligibility, he lost me. Now, an average outfielder who could serve as your number 5. Another one of those ‘eh’ guys.

Jason Kubel finally got a chance to play full-time last year and guess what? Eh.

The Lamb, the Harris and the Everett. It sounds like a kids storybook, but in actuality, it’s a Midwest horror novel. Could you have three worse guys to close out your lineup? Definitely not worth your mixed league consideration.

Starting Rotation

1-Francisco Liriano
2-Livan Hernandez
3-Boof Bonser
4-Scott Baker
5-Kevin Slowey

God speed Francisco Liriano. You were awesome for that half a season in 2006, before your elbow turned to pulp. Someone will take you in every form of draft, most likely way too early. Until he proves he is healthy, there is no way he warrants such adulation.

I’m going to give you just one stat about Livan and that should be all you need to hear. In 204.1 innings, over 33 starts, he struck out 90 batters in 2007. See, I told you.

I would take Boof ahead of these other two if my draft were today. Reason 1-Third year pitcher. Reason 2-He’s always been able to strike guys out. Reason 3-Come on, his name is Boof!!

I hear Baker had a decent campaign in 2007. I wouldn’t know because I stayed far, far away, especially after 2006 (6.37 and 1.56). Another young guy who can strike guys out effectively. He also doesn’t walk anyone! I mean nobody. That is always fun. Worth a shot, but he’s no Boof.

Slowey barely belongs on the Twins, so he definitely doesn’t belong on your team.

Bullpen

CL-Joe Nathan
SU1-Pat Neshek
SU2-Juan Rincon

If you are in a keeper league, grab Neshek because he will almost assuredly be the Twins’ closer in 2009. Nathan is a free agent to be who can’t get a contract extension, those cheap punks. Since coming to Minny, Nathan has been a first rate closer and that will continue in ’08. 116 saves in 3 years, just 11 blown. Can’t complain about that.


Kansas City Royals

I kind of wish I was a Royals fan, because when they finally become good (and one day it will happen) it will be so incredibly sweet. Imagine sticking by this team all these ridiculously horrible years. And then finally, in 2031, they put it all together. Good times.

Projected Lineup
1-David DeJesus-CF
2-Mark Grudzielanek-2B
3-Mark Teahen-LF
4-Billy Butler-DH
5-Alex Gordon-3B
6-Jose Guillen-RF
7-John Buck-C
8-Ryan Shealy-1B
9-Tony Pena-SS

DeJesus was turning into a viable leadoff hitter and then, 2007 happened and DeJesus batted just .260. Not exactly what you want at the top of your order, especially when you consider he doesn’t steal bases or hit home runs. Still, he scores a lot of runs, somehow. The 2007 average could be an aberration. I guess we’ll find out.

Still chugging along is Mark Grudzielanek who year after year hits around .300, while doing nothing else of real fantasy value. More valuable in real baseball than fantasy. I hate guys like that.

I was a big Mark Teahen supporter heading into 2007. Did I draft him? God no, but I thought about it. But this year, I might, because he is really flying under the radar. The team is committed to him, despite just 7 homers last year. He still reached double digit steals and his BA was close to his norm. Only 26 years old, Teahen gets my seal of approval!

Apparently, Billy Butler quit his job on Access Hollywood to play for the Royals. I didn’t know he had it in him. Plus, he’s only 21! Another guy I like who can be had real cheap. Cheap is good!

Now, Alex Gordon won’t come cheap. He was awful in the first half of 2007, but he turned it around when the weather got warm. Considering how lousy he was to start the year, 15 homers, 60 RBI and 14 steals look pretty good. He went too early last year and will go even earlier this year. If he somehow slips through to the later rounds, he’s worth it. But don’t go crazy.

Did you know Jose Guillen went 23-99-.290 last year? I couldn’t believe it when I saw it, but there it was. He’ll miss the first 15 games due to the fact that he was a naughty boy, which means he’ll be even cheaper!! I love this team!

John Buck=cheap power!!! It keeps getting better and better. I know he batted .222, but if you can get 20 homers from your catcher, I say do it.

As opposed to Ryan Shealy who hit .221 and smacked just 3 home runs. He’s 28 and past his prime. I’ll take him if he’s free. Otherwise, ignore.

I refuse to even mention the shortstop. Dad should be ashamed.

Starting Rotation

1-Gil Meche
2-Brian Bannister
3-Zach Greinke
4-Brett Tomko
5-Jorge De La Rosa

Am I crazy or are the Royals top three starters the second best in the division? Better than the Tigers? Check. Better than the White Sox? Check. Better than the Twins? Check. Only Sabathia, Carmona and Byrd are better.

Meche is way undervalued. Despite being the butt of jokes after signing that contract before 2007, Meche stepped to the plate and proved us all wrong. He only won 9 games, but the Royals will be better and Meche could easily reach a dozen or more.

Bannister surprised everyone with a 12 win, 3.87-1.21 season. He doesn’t strike out a soul, but you can’t have it all. Anyway, those K’s will improve….not to 200, but more than 77.

Zach Greinke deserves a medal. After being mentally destroyed early in his career, Greinke grew a pair and turned his career around. He’s still just 24 which blows me away. In 3 years, he’s gone from being the next Bret Saberhagen, to retired, to comeback kid. Many will shy away from him, especially in mixed leagues, but you’ve got my word….he is worth it. Take him and love him.

Brett Tomko was born two days after me and I’m old as dirt. Remember when he was traded in a package for Ken Griffey? I’m pretty sure it was Junior, but it might have been Senior. If you do remember, then I don’t have to tell you to stay the heck away.

Boy, this rotation went downhill fast? What can I say about Jorge De La Rosa that will make you definitely stay away? How about this….his career WHIP is 1.74. If that doesn’t do it, you’re hopeless.

Bullpen

CL-Joakim Soria
SU1-Joel Peralta
SU2-Yasuhiko Yabuta

Soria has no real competition for the closer role, which is always nice. He could rack up a cheap 30 saves for you. Do not overlook. Peralta and Yabuta are able bodies, but nothing to take action on. Soria is the man.