THIRD YEAR PITCHERS: WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

First, some stuff you need to know….

Danny Richar has pretty much blown any shot of being the starting second baseman for the White Sox. First, Richar had the dreaded visa problem. It’s no big deal to have a visa problem if you’re David Ortiz. But if you’re Danny Richar, you better get your ass to America. Then, once he did get back to the states, Richar hurt his back. Any chance of him being a sleeper have gone by the wayside. You just can’t keep Juan Uribe down.

After watching Albert Pujols tear things up in the early going, I’ve changed my opinion regarding his draft status. The only way Albert goes under the knife is if the Cards are 30 games out of first. In most divisions, this could happen easily. But the NL Central is pretty putrid, so the Cards should hang around for a while. If Albert slips to me at number 11 in my mixed league, I’ll snatch him up. When he plays, he’s going to be awesome. Once he’s hit 20 homers through May, then I’ll pawn him off on some gullible owner (Randy, I hope you aren’t reading this.)

So much for Daric Barton being a sleeper ROY candidate. The A’s say his hand injury is more serious than expected, leaving Oakland with ¾ of their infield banged up and it’s March 7th. Dan Johnson suddenly has value again.

Can somebody please put a stop to Eddie Guardado! He entered spring training as third in line for saves in Texas and now it looks like he could be the man. CJ Wilson has the dreaded biceps tendonitis. Second in line Joaquin Benoit hasn’t even thrown yet due to shoulder soreness. Everyday Eddie suddenly has value again as well!

I failed to mention Stephen Pearce when I previewed the Pirates, only because there is nowhere for him to play. But every year there seems to be one guy who forces a teams hand and somehow squeezes his way into the lineup. Pearce might be this year’s version. Xavier Nady is nothing special, but he’s got seniority, which if you know anything about unions, goes a long way. But Pearce is absolutely killing the ball and the Pirates might soon have a big decision on their hands.

And then, we have my latest reason to loathe Dusty Baker. Being the sage that he is, Dusty actually has said that Joey Votto’s patience at the plate is a bad thing and he wants him to become more of a free swinger. I’m not making this up. Hey Joey, have fun in Triple A.

Now, let’s talk third year pitchers. I recently went through my notes from last spring to see what third year pitchers I targeted to break out. Here is what I came up with.

Dan Haren-good
Joe Blanton-good
John Maine-good
Zach Duke-bad
Rich Hill-good
Wandy Rodriguez-good (meaning he improved…he’s still not very good)
Matt Cain-good
Chuck James-bad
Scott Olsen-hideous

I, for one, am a firm believer in the third year theory. It’s not to say I’m taking a guy 10 rounds too early because he is entering his third season. But I will take a guy in the late rounds who is entering his third year, as opposed to someone like Mike Mussina or Josh Fogg. That being said, here is my 2008 list of third year targets.

Jered Weaver-He is the prototypical breakout candidate. He hasn’t been horrible his first two seasons, just solid. Year three, he makes the leap.

Joe Saunders-Another Angel who has been decent. He’s not much in the way of strikeouts, but the ERA will be below 4. In this day and age, that’s good.

Brian Bannister-Like Saunders, he’s not going to strike out 8 guys a game. But he’ll end up the year as the ace of the Royals. That’s not saying much, but Bannister is going to be good. Another Met mistake.

Carlos Villanueva-I’m a big fan of Carlos, I just hope he gets a shot at the rotation. Sooner or later the Brew Crew has to give up on Capuano and/or Bush. When they do, they’ve got their replacement lined up.

Boof Bonser-Just writing his name makes me shudder, he was so bad last year. Bonser is a 26 year old with a ton of potential who could finally put it together. A nice striker outer too!

Matt Garza-I don’t know if the move to Tampa helps or hurts Garza, but he’s young enough to still be the pitcher he was projected to be. 2007 was okay, but 2008 will be sweet.

Chad Billingsley-Billingsley was pretty stellar last year, but I think he’ll be even better in ’08. Loads of K’s, a solid ERA, a good team behind him. This will be his first year he enters the season as a starter.

Ubaldo Jimenez-Hard to say this is his third full season since he only appeared in 2 games in 2006. But Jimenez throws bullets and has good command. Throw in the Rockies offense behind him and Jimenez could be a hidden gem.

Sean Marshall-The only problem for Marshall is the depth of the Cubs rotation. Hopefully Lou realizes what he’s got in Marshall and gives him the fifth spot in the rotation. Marshall has been rumored to be going to Baltimore for Brian Roberts. If he does, he’ll be guaranteed a rotation spot and will pay dividends immediately.