AL WEST FANTASY PREVIEW

My last divisional preview is listed below and we’re all getting ready for our drafts. But I have to address one thing before I get into the AL West.

I am going on record as hoping Shelly Duncan contracts a venereal disease in the near future. I know that by him being on the Yankees, everyone is going to say I’m only speaking out because of my Red Sox loyalty. But Duncan proved this week that he is a classless jerk and needs to be put in his place.

In case you missed it, in an exhibition game last week, the tenth string catcher for the Yankees had his wrist broken when the 12th string outfielder for the Rays barreled him over in a play at the plate. The Yankees hemmed and hawed about it being a spring training game and how guys shouldn’t be going all out.

I suppose they should be jogging around the bases and should be allowed to have a cooler in the outfield too.

Well, the next time the two teams played, Rays third baseman Evan Longoria got plunked in the back in the first inning. No big deal. It was a 80 MPH fastball in the midsection of his back. Fine….feel better now Joe?

But that wasn’t enough for Shelly Duncan, the Yanks scrubby backup firstbaseman. Later that same game, Duncan tried to stretch a single into a double. The throw came into second and Duncan was out by 10 feet. He then proceeds to slide into second baseman Akinori Iwamura, with his spikes aimed at his groin.

Here’s the problem. Anybody whose played baseball knows that this is something you don’t do. EVER. It is the epitomy of dirty play and shows that Duncan has no class whatsoever.

Now a lot of people are saying an eye for an eye. But I couldn’t disagree more. Mainly because the play in the first game wasn’t a dirty play. If that play happened during the regular season, would anyone have complained? No. But if Duncan goes in spikes to the cajones during a regular season game, he’s still going to get his butt kicked.

Not to even mention the fact that maybe the Yankees catcher shouldn’t have been blocking the plate. Don’t want to get bowled over? Don’t block the plate. Make a sweep tag.

If this were any other team, I’d be saying the same thing. It was just a classless act by a jerk with a big mouth, who can’t make it onto Sportscenter any other way. There is a reason Joe Girardi only lasted one season in Florida. Don’t be surprised if we see a repeat of that in the Bronx.

Seattle Mariners

2007 was a so-so year for the Mariners, but 2008 should see them return to the post-season. Management showed they want to win now, trading away top prospect Adam Jones for front line starter Erik Bedard. The lineup is old, pretty much across the board…so if there was ever a time to go for it, it’s now.

Projected Lineup

1-Ichiro-CF
2-Jose Vidro-DH
3-Adrian Beltre-3B
4-Raul Ibanez-LF
5-Richie Sexson-1B
6-Kenji Johjima-C
7-Brad Wilkerson-RF
8-Jose Lopez-2B
9-Yuniesky Betancourt-SS

It’s seven straight years of 200 hits or more for Ichiro. A model of three category consistency that is unmatched. Seven straight years of .300 or better, 30+ steals and 100+ runs. The fact that 203 of his 238 hits last year were singles shouldn’t matter to you. That’s just more opportunities for him to swipe second. Easily a second round pick in mixed leagues.

Jose Vidro, on the other hand, is washed up. He’s easily the worst DH in baseball and I can’t understand how Seattle doesn’t have someone, somewhere who can do more than he can. 6 homers, 59 RBI, 0 steals. Don’t expect any better this year.

Adrian Beltre gets passed over every year, simply because he hasn’t been able to live up to 2004 when he hit 48 bombs. Don’t make that mistake. Beltre is a consistent hitter who has now even stolen double digit bases the past two years.

Ibanez is another consistently overlooked guy. Maybe because he’s got a donkey face. I don’t really know. But after a wretched first half last year, he warmed up and finished with his second straight 100 RBI campaign. If he can avoid that early season slump, he is likely to go 30-100 again.

Richie Sexson had one bad season and now, he is going undrafted in many mixed leagues. Let’s take a look at the six years prior to 2007. I’ll take out 2004 because he only played 23 games due to injury. In the other five years, Sexson averaged 38 homers and 116 RBI. His batting average also came in at a decent .270. Sexson is a free agent to be in 2009. HE WILL BOUNCE BACK WITH AT LEAST 35 AND 100!! TAKE IT TO THE BANK.

Kenji Johjima is also in a contract year and should be looking for his big payday, since he will be 32 years old. The M’s will probably let him walk because Jeff Clement is ready to be a big league catcher, but for now, Johjima is a guaranteed top 10 mixed league catcher who should be drafted somewhere after the big 2.

Since breaking into the bigs, Brad Wilkerson has hit the home run with nobody on base. Wilkerson could easily hit 20 homers this year. He’s done it three times in his career already. But his career high in RBI in a single season is 77. The move to Safeco won’t improve his power numbers, so I’d stay away in mixed leagues.

Jose Lopez even drove in 78 runs one year and calling him mediocre is a compliment. The middle infield tandem of Lopez and Betancourt have little to offer outside of AL only leagues. Yuniesky might get double digit steals and his average won’t kill you. But it it’s power, RBI and runs you’re looking for, don’t go to Seattle.

Projected Rotation

1-Erik Bedard
2-Felix Hernandez
3-Carlos Silva
4-Miguel Batista
5-Jarrod Washburn

Erik Bedard has the opportunity to become the third best pitcher in fantasy baseball. Everything is in place for him. He’s already got the arm. He moves to Seattle, a pitchers haven. Plus he gets a contending team behind him, jettisoning the putrid Orioles. 221 K’s in 182 IP is no joke. 20 wins is definitely possible. In my opinion, the third pitcher off the board after Johan and Peavy.

Do you remember April of last year when Felix Hernandez looked like the second coming of Tom Seaver? Well things kind of went haywire following a May dl stint and Felix turned into Jerry Koosman in the second half. The addition of Bedard will help because now Felix isn’t shouldering the whole load. He’s still only 22 and will keep getting better.

It cost the M’s 44 million dollars to bring Silva to town and if they are going anywhere this season, he’d better earn his keep. Ever since getting dumped by the Phillies, Silva has become a solid starting pitcher. The best part about Carlos? He doesn’t walk anybody. The worst part? He doesn’t make anybody miss. No strikeouts here. Double digit wins are likely, but everything else is at or below average. AL only material.

First thing I have to say about Miguel Batista is that I can’t believe he is 37 years old. Seattle is his 7th team in 16 years and last year might have been his best. 16 wins, 133 K’s and an ERA just above 4. The 1.52 WHIP is a killer. Blame that on 85 walks. How you can pitch in the majors for 18 years and still walk a batter every other inning is beside me. He’s not going to get any better so proceed with caution.

Jarrod Washburn is Jarrod Washburn. Bottom of the AL only pool.

Bullpen

CL-JJ Putz
SU1-Arthur Rhodes
SU2-Eric O’Flaherty

There is nobody in this bullpen worth touching besides Putz. Statistically, his 2007 was amongst the greatest ever put up by a closer and there is no risk whatsoever of him losing the job. Putz should be the first or second closer off your board.

Los Angeles Angels

I don’t know why, but I just don’t like this collection of players in Anaheim. They seem to rely too much on Vlad and unfortunately, he’s not Montreal Vlad anymore. He’s still good, but those numbers he put up in Montreal were SICK! For that reason, I see them coming in a very close second to the Mariners.

Projected Lineup

1-Chone Figgins-3B
2-Gary Matthews Jr-DH
3-Vlad Guerrero-RF
4-Torii Hunter-CF
5-Garrett Anderson-LF
6-Howie Kendrick-2B
7-Casey Kotchman-1B
8-Mike Napoli-C
9-Erick Aybar-SS

Figgins hit .330 in 2007, 34 points higher than any other season in his career. I’m not saying I don’t like the guy. Anybody who can steal 50 bases is allright with me. I’m just expecting the average to come back to normal, around .290. Which makes him a 2 tool player, runs and steals. It would also be nice for someone as fast as Chone to reach 100 runs, something he has done just once in his career.

Sarge Jr. will be 34 this year. He’s a lifetime .261 hitter whose never hit more than 19 homers in a season and never driven in more than 79. He’s a big part of the reason I chose Anaheim to finish second.

Remember the year Vlad jacked 39, stole 40, batted .336, drove in 100 and scored 100? I do. This isn’t that Vlad. The steals are gone. The power is dropping. The injuries are mounting. Is he still good? Of course. Is he first round good? No way in hell.

Torii Hunter has always been one of my favorite fantasy players. I remember him making his way up the Twins system. I grabbed him in 2000 in a keeper league and he stunk. Then, in 2001, he made it and I was able to shove it in the faces of my competitors. 25 homers, 15 steals and close to 100 RBI are all doable. Among the second tier of outfielders.

1200 RBI and counting for Garrett Anderson who keeps plugging along, despite a pair of knees that would make Earl Campbell weep. His power has settled in the 15-20 range, but he still knows how to drive them home. If he can stay healthy, he’s a lock for 90 RBI and an average near .300.

I am so sick of hearing about Howie Kendrick. Everyone says the reason he didn’t break out last year was because of injury. He played in just 88 games. Well, if we pro-rate his stat’s over a full season, Howie would have chipped in a whopping 9 homers, 9 stolen bases, and 70 RBI. Can he hit .300+? Yes. Can he do anything else? Until he proves it, I’m not buying.

And you. Casey Kotchman. Do they get anymore ordinary than this? First base is a power position. My first baseman better hit more than 11 home runs. He’ll play everyday, but you won’t see him on the ESPN highlight reel very often.

I’m actually a fan of Mike Napoli. He strikes out a lot and kills a lot of rallies. But what do I care? I’m not an Angels fan. All I care about are the 10 homers and 5 steals in 219 at-bats. Even if he could just get 400 AB’s, that nearly 20 homers and 10 steals. How many catchers can say that? Last year, Russell Martin went late in drafts. This year, Mike Napoli will be that late round catching gem.

Last and by far least is Erick Aybar. They say he’s fast. Then why did he steal fewer bases than Mike Napoli last year? Pass.

Starting Rotation

1-John Lackey
2-Jared Weaver
3-Jon Garland
4-Joe Saunders
5-Ervin Santana

Last year was by far Lackey’s best, as it seems he has finally put his base on ball-itis out to pasture. Lackey felt a little soreness in his elbow this spring, just what you need to have him slip in your draft. A top 10 starter who has fallen on some boards. Take advantage.

Jared Weaver is my pick to be this year’s breakout pitcher. His numbers have been good in the past. This year will be great. Get on the bus.

Jon Garland’s numbers took a tumble last year so the White Sox shipped him to Anaheim for Orlando Cabrera. Garland never misses a start, but 98 K’s in over 200 innings last year scare me. He’s pitching for a contract, so a good year could be in store. I, personally, will take my chances elsewhere.

Joe Saunders has pitched real well this spring and could be another youngster ready to breakout. Health has been the issue in the past, so there is obviously some risk. Not mixed league worthy yet, but watch him out of the gate.

Ervin Santana completely went off the deep end last year, murdering fantasy teams with a 5.76 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. Santana has the month of April to prove he belongs in the bigs. By may, Kelvim Escobar should be healthy and ready to return, meaning somebody will have to make room. Escobar deserves a bench spot in your mixed leagues, but Ervin does not.

Bullpen

CL-Frankie Rodriguez
SU1-Scott Shields
SU2-Justin Speier

If there is a save to be had in Anaheim, K-Rod gets it. Three straight years of 40+ saves is pretty amazing. His ERA and WHIP actually rose slightly last year, but consider he also gets you saves. 90 in 67 innings compared to Garlands 98 in 200. Do the math. K-Rod is miffed the Angels wouldn’t give him a contract extension, so he’s pitching for a payday. The third best closer in fantasy.

Oakland A’s

I wanted to put the Rangers third in this division. The A’s have stripped the team to the bone. No Nick Swisher. No Dan Haren. No Mike Piazza. Well, that’s actually a good thing. But still, this team has been ransacked and it will be a heated battle between them and the Rangers, not to see who comes in third, but to see who doesn’t come in last.

Projected Lineup

1-Mark Ellis-2B
2-Travis Buck-LF
3-Daric Barton-1B
4-Jack Cust-RF
5-Eric Chavez-3B
6-Dan Johnson-DH
7-Bobby Crosby-SS
8-Chris Denorfia-CF
9-Kurt Suzuki-C

When you start to go through the A’s lineup, you say to yourself ‘Hey, this isn’t that bad.’ But any team that has Chris Denorfia as their starting center fielder is in a heap of trouble.

Start with good old Mark Ellis. Ellis was better than a whole bunch of second baseman last year, going 19-76-.276. He also stole 9 bases. Still, like Aaron Hill in Toronto, Ellis gets overlooked. Don’t make the same mistake. Guys like Dustin Pedroia, Placido Polanco and Kaz Matsui are all being picked up on average ahead of Ellis. Why?

Travis Buck is a classic high potential, low threshold of pain guy. Buck looked swell last year when he was on the field. But a hamstring here, an elbow there, and Buck ended up with just 285 at-bats before he was shut down. He’s got the stick, but until he learns how to stretch properly, you can’t draft him.

It looked like Daric Barton might be heading down that same injury road. The ROY candidate injured his hand last year and the pain returned this spring. Fortunately, he has returned to action and should be fine. Despite hitting 4 homers in just 72 at-bats last year, Barton is not considered a power guy. More of an all around spray hitter. Good average, good with RISP. 15 homers might be the max, but he could push 90 RBI. Good enough for AL only.

Jack Cust is one of my favorite players in baseball. When he is hot, he is amazing. But when he is cold, he turns into Dale Sveum. If you’re league penalizes for strikeouts, then Cust is not for you. And you should find a new league, because that’s just a stupid rule. 35 and 100 are easily within reach….just ride out the rough patches.

The exact opposite of Jack Cust is Eric Chavez, a guy who deserves to rot. He’s only 30, but he acts as if he’s 102. After hitting the 100 RBI plateau in 4 of 5 years, Chavez has taken the injury bug to a new level the last two seasons. Anything that could happen to him, has. He’s already moaning this spring, so keep away if you know what’s good for you.

Dan Johnson and Mike Sweeney will likely split the DH duties. So 3 of the first 6 spots in the A’s lineup are filled with guys who can’t stay healthy. Good luck with that.

Remember when Peter Gammons predicted Bobby Crosby would be the MVP in the spring of 2006? Since that time, Crosby has amassed the following totals: 17 HR, 71 RBI, 82 runs, .227 BA. Make that 4 of the first 7 who are injury risks.

On pure principal, I refuse to even discuss Chris Denorfia. If you need me to tell you not to take him, you are in over your head.

At least we can end on a good not. I like Kurt Suzuki, especially in AL only leagues. 7 homers in just over 200 at bats is fine with me. The job is all his this year, so 15 homers could be in the works. I’ll take that any day of the week.

Starting Rotation

1-Joe Blanton
2-Rich Harden
3-Justin Duscherrer
4-Chad Gaudin
5-Dallas Braden

The best reason I can give you for taking Joe Blanton is that at some point this season, he will likely be dealt to a contender, where he can thrive. Blanton is a good pitcher who came into his own last year. Right now he’s a solid number 3 for your staff, but in a better spot, he could be a 2.

I’m going on the record saying this will be the year Rich Harden stays healthy. Harden has never pitched lousy. He just hasn’t pitched. 16 appearances since 2005. Not good. He’s made it through the first weeks of spring unscathed. At worst, you take him late and use him while he’s healthy in April. If he stays upright, great. He will.

Another guy I like a lot is Duscherrer. Justin was a starter his entire life until he reached the bigs. He had several good years in relief, but is now apparently very happy to be back starting. It may take him a while to build up his stamina, but he has the stuff to succeed.

I don’t want Chad Gaudin (100 walks in 199 IP) and the fifth spot is a crapshoot. It could be Braden it could be Lenny DiNardo. Whoever it is, AVOID.

Bullpen

CL-Huston Street
SU1-Alan Embree
SU2-Joey Devine

Street is firmly entrenched as the A’s closer and as long as he is healthy, he’s given them no reason to consider a change. He missed a little time last year with an elbow strain, but returned in August and threw without issue. Embree stepped in last year and picked up saves while Street was hurt, but talk this year is that Devine will be the one to get opportunites if there is a change at the top.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers have a real nice lineup. The Rangers have a real nice lineup. The Rangers have a real nice lineup. (notice I’m avoiding a certain something?)

Projected Lineup

1-Ian Kinsler-2B
2-Michael Young-SS
3-Josh Hamilton-CF
4-Milton Bradley-RF
5-Hank Blalock-3B
6-Frank Catalanotto-LF
7-Jason Botts-DH
8-Gerald Laird-C
9-Ben Broussard-1B

For the life of me, I can’t tell what Ron Washington is doing this spring. He’s got a talented group of hitters, but can’t seem to settle on a lineup. Therefore, I’ve put together what I think the lineup will look like.

Quietly, Ian Kinsler went 20-20 last year. He had a major power burst in the first half, then kind of tailed off, but the speed snuck up on me. Despite hitting just .263, his OBP was over .350, so he can work at leadoff. That will also mean an opportunity for more steals, which means Kinsler is a top 5 second baseman.

I love Michael Young, he is just straight on solid. But the truth of the matter is, his power has been dwindling. 24 to 14 to 9 in the HR category, which means he doesn’t get to bat third anymore. He can still hit .300 and drive in 90 runs from the two hole. Even steal a dozen bases. But I can’t bat you third if you aren’t getting to double digit homers. No longer an elite shortstop.

If you’ve paid any attention at all to spring training, you’ve seen Josh Hamilton tear it up. Hopefully the big guy saves some of those homers for the regular season. Hamilton popped 19 homers in less than 300 at-bats last year, so 30 should be no problem with a full time gig in hand. With Young and Kinsler getting on base in front of him, 100 RBI shouldn’t be a problem either.

It seems like just yesterday that Milton Bradley was having his knee torn up by then manager Bud Black. Now, Bradley is getting ready to be the cleanup hitter for the Rangers. Either as the DH or in right field. Chances are he’ll have to play DH for the first month of the season, giving Kevin Mench some playing time in right. But keep in mind that in 8 years in the majors, Bradley has reached 100 games played only twice. He’s an injury waiting to happen.

Hank Blalock can’t catch a break. After surgery to have a rib removed last year, Blalock then got into a car accident during spring training. He’s still young enough to prove he’s an everyday fantasy contributor and they are saying the procedure he had last year should help revive his power stroke. He’s been climbing up draft boards and will be a late round pick in your mixed league.

One to five, the Rangers are pretty solid. Then comes Frank Catalanotto, who somehow is still collecting a paycheck. He’s nothing more than an AL only outfielder, worth a few bucks at the end of your draft.

Jason Botts swings for the fences. Every single time he’s up. 59 K’s in 167 AB’s. 2 home runs. At least Jack Cust makes contact every once in a while. Botts has no job security and could be replaced at any minute by Mench or Nelson Cruz or some guy named Saltalamacchia.

Speaking of catchers….it’s looking more and more like Ron Washington wasn’t lying when he said the battle for catcher was wide open. Saltalamacchia is ready to play. Gerald Laird is another one of those ‘eh’ guys. Because Laird is hitting better in March, the Rangers are prepared to move Saltalamacchia (the guy they got in exchange for Mark Teixeira) to Triple-A. The list of draftable catchers has taken a serious hit.

Ben Broussard is a poor fantasy first baseman. The fact that they brought this guy in, despite the fact that Saltalamacchia can play first base, is puzzling to me. I’m beating a dead horse, I know. Ignore Broussard. Ignore Laird. I give up.

Starting Rotation

1-Kevin Millwood
2-Vicente Padilla
3-Jason Jennings
4-Brandon McCarthy
5-Kason Gabbard

Texas is where pitchers go to die. I wouldn’t have a single one of these guys anywhere near my fantasy staff.

Millwood is a greedy bum who won’t ever pitch well unless he is in a contract year.

In 2006, Padilla was in just that situation. His contract was up and he needed to serve up some piping hot nastiness. He went 15-10 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. That was the best he could do. So the Rangers did what any wise franchise would do. They gave him a 3 year, 36 million dollar deal. In 2007, Vicente went 6-10 with a 5.76 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. Two more years, coming at ya!

I thought Jason Jennings was pitching for the Atlantic City Surf. And then I saw his name pop up on the Texas roster and I felt bad for him.

Brandon McCarthy and Kason Gabbard are two prime examples of buying high. The Rangers jumped all over these young guys when their stock was at an all time high. Unfortunately, that was the highest it was ever going to get for either of these guys, because they both have average stuff. Good times all around in Arlington.

Bullpen

CL-CJ Wilson?
SU1-Eddie Guardado
SU2-Joaquin Benoit

As bad as the Texas starting rotation is, at least they know who their 1-5 will be come opening day. The bullpen is in disarray and time is running out to settle on roles.

CJ Wilson came into camp as the closer, but he’s been shut down with bicep tendonitis. Word is he is going to start throwing soon, but will he be ready by opening day?

Guardado has closed before, but that was a while ago. And he was old then, not to mention even older now.

Benoit looked to be second in line, but he has just started throwing again after complaining of a sore shoulder. Benoit was superb last year and seems better suited as an 8th inning guy. But he might not have a choice if Wilson isn’t ready to go in April.