NL CENTRAL FANTASY PREVIEW

But first….

Are you all still ‘Flyered UP’? I’m not exactly sure what happened to this team, but you know things are bad when they brought Vinny Prospal back to town to try and save the season.

Daniel Briere is exciting to watch in the offensive zone, but you’d think for 52 million he’d at least try to play some defense. I don’t know what was different in Buffalo, but last year he was +17.

I can’t help but watch the 76ers and beg for them to lose. How many times can you finish 8th in the East, lose out on a lottery pick and get mopped in the first round? I know you can’t tell the team to tank, but this mediocrity is getting old. There isn’t much worse than being stuck in NBA purgatory and that’s exactly where this team is.

But as depressing as the Sixers are, I have to be thankful that they didn’t do what the Suns and the Mavs did. I know these teams feel like their window of opportunity might be coming to an end, but the fact of the matter is Shaq and Jason Kidd don’t fix their problems.

Kidd is still able to run with the best of them, but he couldn’t gun with Will Ferrell. And with Dallas not being much of a running team, I have to think Mark Cuban panicked.

The Shaq situation is just the opposite. He can’t run with the Suns, he only slows them down offensively. If his body holds out, he should be able to help out defensively come playoff time. But Shawn Marion is a stud and he’ll be playing long after Shaq has limped off into the sunset. I was on board the Shaq deal at first, but having watched him in action with his new mates, I have to say the move won’t pay off.

At least the Mavs and Suns won’t have to worry about the Rockets in their run to the title. The good news is Yao will be healthy enough to lead China against the U.S. in the Summer Olympics.

But how great would it be if Yao pulled a WWE move next summer. Acting like he is going to play for China and then ripping off his jersey to reveal a United States uniform, right before the two teams were about to meet. Take that Communism!! Yao is a free man!! That might be the only thing that would actually get me to watch the Summer Olympics.

Teams are finally gearing up for their first actual spring training games and it’s about time. I’m sick and tired of hearing guys getting hurt and they aren’t even playing. You have to admit, of the four sports, baseball players are the biggest wusses.

Kevin Millwood pulled a hammy, reportedly while slipping on a pepperoni while at the Pizza Hut all you can eat buffet. Good news…he didn’t spill his plate.

Bartolo Colon has signed a one year deal with the Red Sox and reports are he is out of shape even for his standards. Bartolo has never been one to skip a meal and I can only guess that he came to camp weighing over 3 bills, since his playing weight last year was around 260.

And for good measure, the Sox have also brought in Freddy Garcia for a look see. What does that tell you? At least they aren’t stuck with Adam Eaton.

Your typical draft is only about 2 or 3 weeks, so it’s time to get serious.

On to the NL Central (yuck).

Milwaukee Brewers
Call me crazy, but I think the Brewers can win this division. I don’t know if that speaks well of the Brew Crew or down on the other teams in the division. The Central has fallen hard and Milwaukee might be the last one standing.

Projected Lineup:
1-Rickie Weeks-2B
2-JJ Hardy-SS
3-Ryan Braun-LF
4-Prince Fielder-1B
5-Corey Hart-RF
6-Billy Hall-3B
7-Mike Cameron-CF
8-Jason Kendall-C

The Brewers lineup is pretty much set in stone. The lone exception will be in centerfield, since Mike Cameron is suspended the first 25 games of the year due to his second violation of the substance abuse policy. Gabe Gross or Gabe Kapler will see the majority of playing time over the first month. Considering how often Cameron breaks down, it might help having that first month off.

Ryan Braun takes his stone hands to the outfield where his glove can do less damage. Enjoy the third base eligibility while you can. I’m not sure Braun can live up to the expectations following last year’s barrage. But the fact that he can steal 20 bases makes him worth a late first round pick.

Bill Hall moves back to third and I’m expecting a nice rebound in ’08. Corey Hart has right field all to himself and the 26 year old has the potential to go 30-30.

JJ Hardy has been slipping in a number of draft boards and I’m not sure why. The only reason I can think is last year’s lousy second half. But last year was the first that Hardy stayed completely healthy and 25 home run shortstops don’t just grow on trees. In NL only leagues, I’d rank Hardy the 5th best shortstop, behind Hanley, Reyes, J-Roll, and Tulowitzki.

Starting Rotation:
1-Ben Sheets
2-Jeff Suppan
3-Dave Bush
4-Yovanni Gallardo
5-Chris Capuano
ALT-Carlos Villanueva

One word describes the Brewers starting rotation: potential. All five of these guys can put up big numbers. But health and other issues have gotten in the way in the past couple years. Every year, things seem to just come together for certain teams and I think that will be the case in ’08 in Milwaukee.

Sheets was pretty ordinary his first couple of years in the league, but he was a workhorse. Then, in 2004, he turned the corner and became an ace. At the same time, he got the injury bug and hasn’t started more than 24 games in a season since. Sheets is the consummate number one for your squad, strikeouts and all. If he can eke out 30+ starts for you, you won’t be disappointed.

Jeff Suppan is NL only material. His WHIP will hurt you, guaranteed, but you might be able to milk 12-14 wins out of him.

Bush was a trendy pick heading into last season and then he forgot how to get guys out. Still, the potential is there, especially in the K department. I like him now that the hype has died down.

The best thing that could have happened is Gallardo getting injured this spring. There is nothing wrong with his arm, he’ll be back sometime in April and he’s falling on draftboards around the country. The young’en is a strikeout machine and will make you happy you drafted him.

Capuano has nowhere to go but up. An 18 game winner and an All-Star in 2005, Capuano can be a help if he gets his head on straight. The talent is there.

Bullpen:
CL-Eric Gagne
SU1-Derrick Turnbow
SU2-David Riske

The Brewers let Coco Cordero walk this winter and replaced him with the enigma that is Eric Gagne. Gagne was strong while closing for Texas early last season, but was an aberration when he went to Boston. Perhaps it was moving out of the closer role that was his downfall. We’ll find out. A move back to the NL should help as well.

Turnbow was an adequate closer in another life, but now he’s as safe as a Molotov cocktail when put in save situations. David Riske is more likely to get the call if Gagne eats it.

Chicago Cubs

When the Brewers collapsed last summer, it was the Cubs who swooped in and took the NL Central throne. But did the Cubs really impress anyone with their run? It seemed more what the Brewers didn’t do than what the Cubs did do. They’re roster looks nice on paper, but most of the players can be categorized as underachievers.

Projected Lineup:
1-Alfonso Soriano-LF
2-Ryan Theriot-SS
3-Derrek Lee-1B
4-Aramis Ramirez-3B
5-Kosuke Fukudome-RF
6-Mark DeRosa-2B
7-Geovany Soto-C
8-Felix Pie

Soriano has some explaining to do if he doesn’t reach 20 steals again this year. A late surge in September bodes well, but the fact that he is already saying this spring that his legs aren’t that healthy does not. As is, he’s a late second round pick in mixed leagues.

The best thing about Ryan Theriot is that he qualifies at 2B and SS and in some leagues 3B. He’s got speed and he’s got a reputation as a great guy, but I could care less about his clubhouse rep. He hit 3 home runs and batted .266 last season. NL only okay, mixed leagues, don’t waste a pick.

For those waxing nostalgic, I present Derrek Lee. 2005 seems like eons ago and he’ll never be the same player. If you’re expecting 40 homers, god speed. You can get Adam LaRoche 6 rounds later and only feel it in your batting average.

It’s hard to find a flaw with A-Ram, though I’d like at least 1 stolen base this year. But the key to the Cubs lineup will be Fukudome. If he can’t make the transition, that will leave the Cubs vulnerable from hitters 5 through 9 and that’s no good. I won’t even pretend to know what this guy will do and anyone who tells you they can is lying.

DeRosa is another guy who qualifies all over, making him valuable in NL only leagues. 10 homers, 60-70 RBI’s. Nothing to get your heart racing.

Soto is intriguing as NL catchers go. While that doesn’t say much, he does have the starting job with no real competition. 15 to 20 homers is a possibility.

Felix Pie seems like he should be 30 years old by now, but he’s still just 23. He’s got the starting gig all to himself and if he doesn’t show it this year, Pie might be cooked.

Starting Rotation:
1-Carlos Zambrano
2-Ted Lilly
3-Rich Hill
4-Jason Marquis
5-Ryan Dempster
ALT-Jon Lieber

Do not overpay for Carlos!!! Let me say that first. I can’t help but feel bad things are on the horizon for the big man. He’s only 26 and already has logged just under 1200 innings pitched. I know he prides himself on being a workhorse, but eventually, the injury bug catches up with everybody. The dip in numbers across the board last year have me staying away.

Ted Lilly put up validated his big contract with his best year ever in ’07. The switch to the NL did the lefty good and I think he’s a safer pick than Carlos, though not as safe as the next guy.

Rich Hill should be the top Cub pitcher taken in your draft. He won’t be, but he should be. In his first full season in the majors, Hill struck out nearly a batter an inning. Ignore the 11 wins, as poor run support was mainly to blame. 15 wins and 200 strikeouts are both likely.

Jason Marquis is an innings eater and not much else. If you have to draft him, make sure you trade him at the All-Star break. Trust me on this.

Ryan Dempster is being converted back to a starter, something he hasn’t done regularly since 2003. When that doesn’t work, Jon Lieber will lug his big butt out to the mound.

Bullpen:
CL-Bobby Howry?
SU1-Kerry Wood
SU2-Carlos Marmol

For a contending team, this is a pretty unsettled situation. Howry seems to be the most reliable. Marmol is the youngster with the cannon arm. Wood is the veteran trying to come back and prove he is worth a damn. I’m personally pulling for Marmol who could be a monster if he earns saves. 96 K’s in 69 innings makes him worth the dime.

Cincinnati Reds

I’d give the Reds a chance in the Central if it wasn’t for one thing. Dusty Baker. He is to fantasy baseball what Mike Shanahan is to fantasy football. Pure evil and I’ll explain why.

Starting Lineup:

1-Ryan Freel-CF
2-Adam Dunn-RF
3-Brandon Phillips-2B
4-Ken Griffey Jr.-LF
5-Edwin Encarnacion-3B
6-Scott Hatteburg-1B
7-Alex Gonzalez-SS
8-David Ross-C

The fact that Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, two of the most highly touted and ready for prime time prospects in all of baseball, aren’t projected to start for the Reds has me seeing red.

Ryan Freel is a scrub who can run fast and get hurt a lot. 64 RBI’s in three years, what more do I have to say. I don’t care if he bats leadoff. That didn’t stop Jimmy Rollins from driving in 94 runs, did it? I realize Bruce is only 20 years old, but face it….Freel stinks.

Just a bit more smelly is Scott Hatteburg. 10 home runs from your starting first baseman in the homer haven that is the Great American Ballpark is a travesty. And there’s good old Dusty doing what he’s always done. Sticking with the grizzled, washed up veteran and putting Baby in a corner. Votto is 24 and ready to pop. He may be young and unproven, but is there a chance in heck he does worse than Hatteburg? No way.

Dunn, Phillips, Griffey and Encarnacion form a daunting stretch for opposing pitchers. If Votto would be hitting sixth, oooh baby. Also, look for Encarnacion to be a steal in your draft, because he’ll go for 30 bombs this year.

Starting Rotation:

1-Aaron Harang
2-Bronson Arroyo
3-Matt Belisle
4-Homer Bailey
5-Edinson Volquez

Harang has become a legitimate fantasy ace, topping 200 K’s for two straight years. But from there, things get dicey.

Arroyo could post a sub 4 ERA and he never misses a turn. Look for the WHIP and ERA to both come down this year and the wins to go up. You could do much, much worse.

Speak of the devil. Here comes Matt Belisle, another crappy number 3 and a major reason the Reds won’t be able to hang. Don’t take unless you are a masochist.

Homer Bailey is the Red’s top pitching prospect and will get a chance to prove himself, despite a horrific 2007. He could be an NL option for this year, but by 2009, Dusty will have turned his arm to mush, so long term leagues beware.

There are two ways to look at Edinson Volquez. One is that he was Texas’ top pitching prospect, brought over to Cincy in the Josh Hamilton deal. Volquez could be a nice sleeper. The second way to look at Volquez is the fact that the Reds signed Josh ‘I’m a scrub of epic proportions’ Fogg to potentially be the fifth starter. If Volquez can’t beat out Fogg, he might as well retire.

Bullpen:

CL-Francisco Cordero
SU1-David Weathers
SU2-Mike Stanton

I’m not sure why the Reds felt compelled to spend a ton of money on Cordero when their starting rotation could have used the help. For some reason, David Weathers just gets no respect, despite three straight solid years in the Cincy pen. The move makes Reds relievers an asset, in a day and age when that is becoming more and more important. Cordero is a number one closer who could save 40 games again.

Houston Astros

After a couple years on the unemployment line, Ed Wade found a new home and Houston fans are feeling the wrath. Ed made some major changes this winter, including a deal with his old squad. And while the Astros offense looks potent, I still can’t get over the fact that Woody Williams will be their number 2 starter. I reapeat…Woody Williams will be their number 2 starter. Way to go Ed.

Projected Lineup:

1-Michael Bourn-CF
2-Kaz Matsui-2B
3-Miguel Tejada-SS
4-Lance Berkman-1B
5-Carlos Lee-LF
6-Hunter Pence-RF
7-Ty Wigginton-3B
8-JR Towles-C

You see, a pretty nice lineup. We all know Bourn can run and he could swipe 50 this season now that’s he has a starting job. He might not drive in 20 runs, but 50 steals is 50 steals. After being the butt of jokes by Mets haters for years, Matsui has settled in as a decent second baseman. He seems like a perfect number two hitter, who can score some runs and steal some bases. A little of this, a little of that.

Tejada is a perfect fit for Tropicana Field and it’s short left field porch. He’ll hit .300 and drive in close to 100, which is allright for you starting shortstop.

Berkman and Lee will continue to mash and each should drive in 100 while hitting at least 30 homers. If Hunter Pence could stay out of the Turkish Bath’s, he could do the same. Plus steal 20 bases.

Wigginton will play third, but also qualifies at second base. 25 home runs from your number seven hitter is always strong.

J.R. Towles numbers in September were close to what Brad Ausmus put up from April to August. Don’t expect Towles to hit .375 for a full year, but .300 is possible as well as double digit homers and steals. Hooray!

Starting Rotation:

1-Roy Oswalt
2-Woody Williams
3-Wandy Rodriguez
4-Brandon Backe
5-Chris Sampson

If you don’t get Roy Oswalt, you probably shouldn’t take any Astros’ starters. Woody Williams is 41 and his pitching proves it. This is how a 40 year old pitches when he doesn’t do HGH.

Wandy Rodriguez either strikes guys out or gives up a hit. Not a good combination. Brandon Backe was lousy and then he had Tommy John surgery. Has that ever made anyone a BETTER pitcher?

Chris Sampson hasn’t been completely ruined yet and that’s the best thing I can say about him. He’s battling the immortal Shawn Chacon to be the fifth starter. Not a typo.

Bullpen:

CL-Jose Valverde
SU1-Doug Brocail
SU2-Geoff Geary

Valverde is an elite closer who is surrounded by some mediocre talent. He’ll be near the top of the league in saves once again, but the opportunities won’t be as prevalent as they were last year in Arizona. Brocail and Geary aren’t worth discussing.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The perennial doormats of the Central should make their way to fifth place this season, mainly due to the garbage team that St. Louis will be fielding this year. Pittsburgh has a good, young nucleus of players, but still too many holes to contend.

Projected Lineup

1-Nate McLouth-CF
2-Freddy Sanchez-2B
3-Jason Bay-LF
4-Adam LaRoche-1B
5-Xavier Nady-RF
6-Jose Bautista-3B
7-Ronny Paulino-C
8-Jack Wilson-SS

First things first….don’t wait too long on Jason Bay! Last season Bay was a 3rd round pick and this year, he’s falling towards the 8th or 9th rounds of mixed leagues. Don’t be the guy to pass up on him, because you will be kicking yourself. Chalk up 2007 to an injured knee and be ready to ride him like you did in years past.

As for the rest of the lineup, all I can say is ‘eh’. It’s not terrible, but it’s not anything that will make you say giddyup.

McLouth hit 13 homers and stole 22 bases in just 329 at bats last year. Project that to 500 AB’s and your talking 20 and 35. That looks nice, but it’s just a projection and McLouth hasn’t shown that kind of power at any level. The steals might end up being there, but 20 homers won’t. Like I said, ‘eh’.

Sanchez has turned into a perennial .300 hitter with a little pop. Since he’s a second baseman, he should be taken in all mixed leagues.

LaRoche is a guy who you will hate having on your team. Take it from a guy who had him in two leagues last year. When you own him and watch him everyday, it seems like he does nothing. But the end of the year rolls around and he’s got 25 homers and 90 RBI’s. Draft him, but ignore him once you’ve got him. Let Adam be Adam.

Nady is the definition of blah. 15 to 20 homers, 70 RBI’s, 60 runs. Outfield might be the most shallow position this year so towards the end you might have to take him. That doesn’t mean you have to like it.

Jose Bautista….notice the trend? 12-18 homers, 70 RBI’s, 60 runs….boring. Don’t even give him a sniff in mixed leagues.

Ronny Paulino is supposedly in a battle this spring with Ryan Doumit to see who will be the starting catcher. I don’t see it being much of a fight, even though Doumit is a good hitter. Paulino is a solid catcher and might be on the verge of warranting mixed league consideration. He’s right on the cusp and now might be the time to jump on board. Doumit is too good not to get his at-bats, it just won’t be as the everyday catcher.

It’s still a mystery to me how Jack Wilson got 200 hits in 2004. He hasn’t approached it since and does not belong on your squad unless it’s a deep NL league.

Starting Rotation

1-Ian Snell
2-Tom Gorzelanny
3-Paul Maholm
4-Matt Morris
5-Zach Duke

I hate to admit it, but I really like the Pirates starting rotation. None of them will get a ton of wins, but they could help you in the other categories.

Many say Snell had a breakout season last year, but I say this year will truly be when he arrives. It’s his third full year in the rotation. His innings have been going up and his walks have been going down. This 26 year old belongs on all mixed league squads and could be one of those guys who make your season.

I’ve been on the Gorzelanny bandwagon since he was first called up for good in late 2006. His first full year was filled with ups and downs, but this lefty knows how to pitch and could team up with Snell to give the Bucs a terrific one-two punch.

Maholm and Morris are both awful and they are the main reason the Pirates won’t finish above fifth place. I blame you! And Zach Duke, what the hell? Opponents batted .359 against him in an injury shortened 2007. Do you know how hard that is to do? One out of every three batters he faced got a hit. But he’s a lefty and he’s only 24, so he still has a job. God bless the southpaw.

Bullpen

CL-Matt Capps
SU1-Damaso Marte
SU2-Byung-Hyun Kim(no joke)

Matt Capps is awesome, I cannot lie. He’d be JJ Putz if the Pirates could win more than 70 games. Cross your fingers that they are in a lot of close victories. If so, Capps will have been a bargain. BH Kim is still in the league and that’s the only good thing I can say about him.

St. Louis Cardinals

How long ago does that 2005 World Championship seem? In case you haven’t seen this teams potential lineup and rotation, be prepared to have a little throwup in the back of your throat. It’s that brutal.

Projected Lineup

1-Cesar Izturis-SS
2-Rick Ankiel-CF
3-Albert Pujols-1B
4-Troy Glaus-3B
5-Chris Duncan-LF
6-Ryan Ludwick
7-Yadier Molina-C
8-Adam Kennedy-2B

I would have loved to have been in the boardroom of the Cardinals this offseason. I can only figure the discussion went something like this.

Exec #1: Okay, we’re letting Eckstein go, so who should we go after to be our shortstop? Miguel Tejada is available.

Exec #2: No, too expensive. How about bringing Edgar Renteria back?

Exec #3: I heard the Angels want to get rid of Orlando Cabrera.

G.M.: No…I think when all is said and done, I’d rather have Cesar Itzuris as our leadoff hitter and starting shortstop.

Yeah, that happened. Itzuris is a lifetime .259 hitter with no power, speed or athletic ability. But for St. Louis fans, he’s the catalyst for your offense. Enjoy. If you need me to tell you not to draft him, then I can’t help you. As for the rest of the lineup….

Your number two hitter is a head case with a history of HGH use, who struck out approximately once every four at-bats in 2007. Your number three hitter is walking around spring training with his body wrapped in an ace bandage and could go in for season ending elbow surgery at any minute.

Your number four hitter has power, but nothing else. Ditto your number five hitter. Your number 6 hitter was out of baseball in 2006 and has bounced around from team to team, finally landing in desparate St. Louis. Your number seven hitter, your catcher, calls a great game. Your number 8 hitter is the worst of them all.

The biggest question heading into everyone’s draft is Albert Pujols. His stock is in a freefall and I’m wondering what to do if he falls to me at number 11 in my mixed league draft. The Cards are going NOWHERE and how long will it be until Albert just says ‘screw you guys, I’m going home.’ He could pull the plug at anytime and go to have his chronic elbow fixed, guaranteeing he’ll be back in ’09. It’s tough using your top pick on someone in such a precarious spot.

Outside of Albert, I have a hard time advocating anyone else in this lineup in a mixed league. I know Glaus will be picked and probably so will Ankiel. But I don’t want them and my advice is to let them be someone else’s problem.

Starting Rotation (oh god)

1-Adam Wainwright
2-Braden Looper
3-Joel Pineiro
4-Matt Clement
5-Anthony Reyes

I’ll admit, Wainwright is okay. He might win 10-12 games and have an ERA around 3.50. But he needs to cut back on the walks (70 in 202 IP). If there is one pitcher on this staff to consider in mixed leagues, it’s him.

Looper doesn’t strike anybody out. His middle name is Lavern. The team behind him is awful. Three strikes.

Unless you want to see your ERA and WHIP spontaneously burst into flames, stay far away from Pineiro and Clement.

And finally, young Mr. Reyes. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times and I’m going to find you. Potential, potential, potential. Well, Reyes is now 26 and his time should be now. It isn’t and this is the kind of draft pick that ruins fantasy seasons. Don’t be that sucker.

Bullpen

CL-Jason Isringhausen
SU1-Ryan Franklin
SU2-Russ Springer

Izzy is a mortal lock to get you 30 saves and a nice ERA and WHIP. He’s undervalued most every year because people seem to always think he is hurt, when in actuality he’s just acting. Grab him, knowing at least one short stint on the DL will be in the future. But saves are saves and Izzy will at least give you that.