NL EAST FANTASY PREVIEW

The writer’s strike has finally ended, but to be honest, I’m perfectly happy with the garbage that is on television right now. Who needs well written shows with intricate plotlines and characters with whom you develop a deep connection?

Big Brother is back and we’ve already had one girl tell another that her boyfriend (who also happens to be on the show) is a racist, only to flat out deny it 10 minutes later. I guess she forgot about the 10,000 cameras around the house and that she had that microphone taped to her chest.

MTV’s The Gauntlet is an absolute guilty pleasure. I really don’t know why I enjoy watching these people compete in inane competitions, but I do. Does it have any bearing on my life? No. But I’m there every Wednesday night at 10.

Check out the new one My Dad is Better Than Your Dad, if only to see father’s hook their kids to a zip line 50 feet in the air and hurl them at a giant dartboard. I told you….AWESOME!

My brain is turning to mush, but I’m happy.

Onto to the NL East. Teams will be broken down by predicted finish.

NY Mets-They’ve got an overrated manager and a ton of pressure, but there is no way this team fails to make a run this year. They missed the playoffs last year by one game and that was without a healthy Pedro and of course, the Johan. The Mets have elite players all over the field and will make many a fantasy owner happy.

Projected Lineup:
1-Jose Reyes-SS
2-Luis Castillo-2B
3-David Wright-3B
4-Carlos Beltran-CF
5-Moises Alou-LF
6-Carlos Delgado-1B
7-Ryan Church-RF
8-Brian Schneider-C

No platoon situations, which is always a bonus. The only guy you here you wouldn’t want would be Schneider. All glove no hit catchers should be deported. Reyes and Wright are obvious first round picks, but I’m surprised to see how far Beltran has been falling (averaging late 2nd in mixed leagues). The outfield might be the thinnest position this year, keep that in mind. Beltran and Alfonso Soriano might be the only two OF’s capable of hitting 40 and stealing 20. Delgado is cooked. Castillo is someone you can get decent value out of…he doesn’t hit for power, but does everything else. I’m in the minority, but I like Moises Alou. I’ll take those stats, even if it’s only over 100 games. Church is a decent NL only option, nothing more.

Rotation:
1-Johan Santana
2-Pedro Martinez
3-John Maine
4-Orlando Hernandez
5-Oliver Perez

Tons to like about this staff. Santana’s numbers should go up across the board. Pedro will be Pedro. Maine is going to be this year’s Dan Haren. Consider that Maine put up his strong numbers last year while pitching the majority of the season as a number 1. Now, being a 3, he’ll have less pressure plus be facing opponent’s number 3’s, most of which are crummy. El Duque still knows how to pitch. He’ll miss a turn here or there, but you can survive. And Perez is in a contract year and if there ever was a guy who seems to have the ability to turn it on when he focuses, it’s Oliver. Throw in the fact that these guys will pitch all those games against the Nats and the Marlins and I’d take a flier on all five.

Bullpen:
CL-Billy Wagner
SU1-Aaron Heilman
SU2-Pedro Feliciano

If there is any chink in the armor, this might be it. The main reason being Billy Wagner. He was reprehensible down the stretch last year and the Mets had better pray that he can bounce back. Heilman is solid, but can he close if needed?

Philadelphia Phillies-We all got enjoyed the ride last year, especially at the expense of dirty Mets fans. But I cannot in good faith predict this years Phils to find themselves in the postseason…not with this pitching staff.

Lineup:
1-Jimmy Rollins-SS
2-Shane Victorino-CF
3-Chase Utley-2B
4-Ryan Howard-1B
5-Pat Burrell-LF
6-Geoff Jenkins/Jayson Werth-RF
7-Pedro Feliz-3B
8-Carlos Ruiz-C-

Nobody has a problem with the lineup. Rollins, Utley and Howard all could go in the first round of your drafts, especially if you’ve got some homers in your league. An easy way to tell: if Pat Burrell goes in the first 10 rounds. Dead giveaway. Victorino was on pace to steal 50 last year until the calf got the best of him. 100 runs and 40 steals should be a lock. Jenkins should get the majority of playing time over Werth and Feliz is a big upgrade over Wes Helms. And as far as NL catchers go, you could do a lot worse than Carlos.

Rotation:
1-Cole Hamels
2-Brett Myers
3-Kyle Kendrick
4-Jamie Moyer
5-Adam Eaton
ALT-Kris Benson

Hamels has the stuff to win 20 and I think he will this year. For some reason, Myers has this reputation as a stud pitcher, when in reality, he’s never put it together. He’s never won more than 14 games in a season and only twice has he cracked the 4.00 ERA barrier. When you get to Kendrick, this is when you start to see the difference between the Phils and the Mets. Kendrick is ordinary. Not terrific, not Adam Eaton. For fantasy purposes he is especially useless because he doesn’t strike anyone out. Nice guy, but is he worth more than a 4 dollar bid? Moyer, I fear, is kaput. He’ll take the ball every turn and end up with close to 200 innings, but with a 5 ERA, it’s not worth it. Eaton is the biggest crook since OJ.

Bullpen:
CL-Brad Lidge
SU1-Tom Gordon
SU2-JC Romero

Lidge will be okay, just don’t let him pitch against St. Louis. Tom Gordon is a medical miracle. He just keeps coming back. Romero is a big reason the Phils made the playoffs last year and he needs to keep it up for them to have any kind of shot again.

Atlanta Braves-It was a fairly quiet offseason in Atlanta. Andruw Jones took his .222 batting average to LA, but if you look at their lineup, I think you’ll see that they will still end up missing him.

Lineup:
1-Kelly Johnson-2B
2-Yunel Escobar-SS
3-Chipper Jones-3B
4-Mark Teixeira-1B
5-Brian McCann-C
6-Jeff Francoeur-RF
7-Matt Diaz-LF
8-Mark Kotsay-CF

Last year, it was Kelly Johnson who I was able to sneak at the end of my drafts and he paid off big. This year, I’m hoping it’s Escobar. Just looking at last year’s number (5-28-54-5) you might be misled. But Escobar has the starting shortstop gig and is ready to take off. He reportedly bulked up over the winter. He qualifies at 2B, 3B and SS. What’s not to love? Second base is surprisingly deep, but I still like Johnson and I think he can improve on last year, since there will be no platoon whatsoever. Chipper does what Chipper does….working his way to the HOF. Teixeira always seems to get put down because he hasn’t driven in 140 runs like he did in 2005. Boo-hoo. If the draft were today, I’d probably take Teixeira over Pujols, considering the injury factor to Albert. McCann should be the 2nd catcher taken after Russell Martin, but Bobby Cox can’t run him into the ground like he did last year. Hard to believe McCann is only 24. Francoeur couldn’t hit 20 homers last year and I worry that might be his plateau. Diaz is a part-time guy who will likely fail when given the full time shot. Wes Helms anybody? Mark Kotsay does everything equally poorly.

Rotation:
1-John Smoltz
2-Tim Hudson
3-Tom Glavine
4-Chuck James
5-Jair Jurrjens/Mike Hampton

Glavine and Smoltz, reunited and it doesn’t feel good. Smoltz will hold up his end of the bargain, but Glavine is toast. Hudson had possibly his best year ever last year and should now be drafted even in mixed leagues. James was a major sleeper last year and I’d consider him a buy low for ’08. He’s only 26 and entering his 3rd year as a starter, which is usually nice. I can’t believe Mike Hampton is still trying to pick up a baseball. I guess it will take his elbow actually disappearing in a puff of smoke for him to hang it up. Jurrjens was a key piece in the Edgar Renteria deal and with oldies Hampton and Glavine counting the days until their hips collapse, he should get a shot.

Bullpen:
CL-Rafael Soriano
SU1-Peter Moylan
SU2-Mike Gonzalez

This is finally Soriano’s shot at being THE GUY. He’s always posted solid numbers, but just wasn’t given the chance. Moylan is said to have the composure to step in and close if Soriano falters. If not, Mike Gonzalez should be back by mid season and he has proven he can shut the door.

Washington Nationals

Lineup:

1-Ronnie Belliard-2B
2-Paul Loduca-C
3-Ryan Zimmerman-3B
4-Nick Johnson-1B
5-Wily Mo Pena-LF
6-Austin Kearns-RF
7-Lastings Milledge-CF
8-Cristian Guzman-SS

Two glaring omissions in the Nationals projected lineup and that’s why they play spring training. Felipe Lopez to start off. Manny Acta has said that Lopez has to work on his fundamentals if he wants to start. The fact that he thinks the putrid Cristian Guzman has better fundamentals than Lopez should serve as motivation. By the time April rolls around, expect Lopez to be leading off, Belliard to be batting eighth and Guzman to be out of sight, out of mind. The other missing man from this lineup is Dmitri Young who showed everyone last year that he can hit more than a guy in a kielbasa costume. Nick Johnson looks like he is finally recovered from the broken leg he suffered in 2006, so first base is his. Young could play left field, but that would only seem to happen if Pena really struggled out of the gate. Dmitri doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would want to go back to the bench, so expect some kind of deal to make room for everybody. Also expect Ryan Zimmerman to become a top 3 thirdbaseman now that the Nats have left RFK.

Rotation:

1-John Patterson
2-Shawn Hill
3-Jason Bergmann
4-Matt Chico
5-Joel Hanrahan

When the first thing you think of in regards to your top three starters is injury prone, you know you’re in trouble. Patterson has teased me for years with startling stuff when he’s on the mound. But in the past two seasons, he has pitched in exactly 15 games. Jon Rauch pitched in 15 games just last April. Hill showed flashes, just like Patterson. And just like Patterson, he missed time last year with both shoulder and elbow problems. The bio on Bergmann can read almost word for word. And Matt Chico stinks. So where does this leave the Nats? Hard to believe, but better than the Marlins.

Bullpen

CL-Chad Cordero
SU1-Jon Rauch
SU2-Luis Ayala

And the bullpen is the main reason why they will be better than Florida. Cordero is another guy who hasn’t gotten any love because he has been unable to duplicate his 47 saves in 2005. He’s only 26 and it would take a lot for the Nats to move him out of the closer’s role. Rauch is a very good pitcher, who, like the above discussed Rafael Soriano, is in need of an opportunity. One day he’ll get his chance, but unless Cordero gets injured or traded, it won’t be this year.

Florida Marlins

Lineup

1-Hanley Ramirez-SS
2-Dan Uggla-2B
3-Jeremy Hermida-RF
4-Josh Willingham-LF
5-Mike Jacobs-1B
6-Dallas McPherson/Jorge Cantu-3B
7-Cody Ross-CF
8-Matt Treanor/Mike Rabelo-C

A mixed bag when you look at this lineup. Ramirez is obviously a top 3 talent. In my opinion, Hanley would be the number 2 overall pick behind A-Rod in mixed leagues. Uggla has averaged 29 home runs since entering the league, but his draft stock has been plummeting. I know he only hit .245, but to get a second baseman who can hit 30 bombs, drive in 90 and score close to 100, I’ll deal with the average. Go ahead, take Jeff Kent before him. I’ll be happy to have you in my league. Hermida is only 24 and had a top notch second half in ’07, which could be the sign that he’s turned the corner. 25-90-.300 is possible. Willingham and Jacobs are what they are. Run of the mill guys that wouldn’t scare Steve Trachsel if he was facing them. Third base is up for grabs between McPherson (potential), Cantu (history), and Jose Castillo (ehh). You might be surprised to see Cody Ross penciled in as starting in CF over uber-prospect Camberon Maybin. Maybin was one of the key pieces in the Miguel Cabrera trade, but he’s only 20 years old. He’ll replace Hanley at leadoff eventually, but he’ll have likely start the year in Triple A. Treanor is awful. Rabelo at least has some potential.

Rotation

1-Scott Olsen
2-Sergio Mitre
3-Mark Hendrickson
4-Andrew Miller
5-Rick Vandenhurk

I really can’t think of what to say about this potential rotation. Words escape me. It’s hard to believe you would enter a season with a number 1 coming off a year in which he lost 15 games with an ERA near 6. Olsen is a head case and Mitre is no better, having won only 8 games in 3 years. Mark Hendrickson is very tall. I can’t think of anything else positive to say about him. And remember what I said about John Maine facing number 3’s around the league? In the NL East alone, you’ve got Kendrick, Glavine, Hendrickson and Bergmann. It’s not even a competition. Miller could turn into something, but he’s only 22 and has a lot to learn. I’m not even going to mention that last guy. Good grief.

Bullpen

CL-Kevin Gregg
SU1-Justin Miller
SU2-Matt Lindstrom

Gregg came out of nowhere to save 32 games last year. Example number 487 why you don’t have to overpay for saves at your draft. Guys like Gregg come along every year. Would you have rather spent an early pick on Mariano Rivera last year or waited and swiped Gregg off the waiver wire. Gregg ended up with more saves and more K’s and only a slightly higher ERA and WHIP. Miller and Lindstrom had solid seasons behind Gregg and they’ll have their work cut out for them in ’08. They’ll be pitching an awful lot.