NL WEST PREVIEW

Getting ready to go see my first Philadelphia Soul game...I’m not sure if I should be excited or not.

It’s not easy being a Red Sox fan in 2008. Those of you who have been a longtime fan know what I’m talking about. Since 2004, the bandwagon has turned into a Winnebago.

I was a little worried when they won in 2004 because that was the year my son was born. If the Sox were ever going to win again, did that mean I had to have another kid that same year just to make it happen? Because that meant the Sox were never going to win again. Luckily, that didn’t end up being the case.

I’ve been diehard since I was a young lad, when Butch Hobson was a mediocre ballplayer, not a drug dealer. My favorite player of all-time is Mike Greenwell. The redneck that they called Gator was a hell of a player for about a half dozen years, then he fell off the face of the earth, much to my dismay.

All that being said, I obviously have an intense hatred for everything Yankees. But in recent months, I’ve come to realize that there is something worse lurking.

What I speak of is the loathsome Met fan. As vile as Yankee fans are, I now know that Met fans precede them on the evolutionary scale.

And don’t even get me started on the team itself. They are a reflection of their fan base. This squad that Omar has put together is talented. But is there one guy who you look at and say ‘damn, that guy has heart!’? Last year’s collapse showed just how much this team lacks that intensity….from the manager down.

Reyes showed what he’s made of when things get tough. Beltran is always complaining about some bump or bruise. Wright is kind of whacky….an outgoing, jovial guy, but not one who will throw a fit when the team needs a spark.

Delgado and Alou don’t speak English, so they aren’t going to fire anybody up. Pedro will throw down with the elderly, but otherwise is content to hang out and play with his midget.

You might consider Billy Wagner a leader, but really he is just a d-bag. Wagner has a big mouth, but when the going gets tough, Wagner just goes….in the toilet.

All these guys are talented, but none of them have the ability to right the ship when things go south. That is the reason they completely lost it last year….nobody was there to take charge and shake them out of it.

They’ve added more talent this year, swapping Glavine for Santana, but that leadership quality is still absent. If they don’t get off to a fast start (which they should, because they are good), then Willie might be the fall guy, when really it should be Minaya for putting these guys in the same clubhouse.

Now let us touch upon the Mets fan. Listening to talk radio, you’d think the Mets were forced to play last season blindfolded while using a wiffle ball bat.

I’ve heard predictions as high as 110 for the Mets win total in ’08. Good luck with that. You’d better be at 110 by August 30th, because you clearly can’t win in September.

And can you please get past Jimmy Rollins saying the Phillies were the team to beat in the East. 14 months later, that one little phrase is still echoing in the heads of Met fans, even though their team WASN’T EVEN ACTUALLY MENTIONED!! Rollins didn’t mention the Mets….he said the Phillies were the team to beat. Is it the fact that he was right that bothers you?

And give it up to the quick-witted Carlos Beltran.

The Mets didn’t know how to respond to Rollins’ comments last year, but after a year of thinking about it, they’ve finally come up with a comeback. ‘This year, we’re the team to beat.’ Brilliant, Carlos. Have your team fleece the small market Twins for the best pitcher in baseball and then run your mouth. I think you should stick to what you do best….not living up to your contract.

I’m reminded of the Seinfeld episode where George came up with what he thought was a terrific comeback for a co-worker who insulted him. It took George months and to think up something smart enough to say, but he finally did, only to be put in his place seconds later.

And enough of the Phillies didn’t win the division, the Mets lost it. I know the Mets collapsed, but the Phils did beat them head to head 8 times in September.

Then there is the whole Lastings Milledge situation. Milledge is a young, brash, conceited ballplayer who has been touted for many years. He’s also still loaded with talent and will succeed in Washington.

Veterans on the Mets didn’t like Milledge and his big mouth, so Omar dealt him to the Nationals for a bag of beans...oops, I mean Ryan Church. Same difference. And they dealt him within the division!!

Is it so bad to be a little cocky? To show a little emotion? I tend to think this kind of character might have helped late last season. Instead, they cave to the turds on the roster and trade a talented outfielder, for pure mediocrity.

If there was anybody in that locker room who could command a single ounce of respect, this wouldn’t have had to happen.

Three years from now, this deal will go down with the trade of Scott Kazmir as one of the biggest mistakes in Mets history.

On paper, the Mets are the cream of the crop in the East. But last year they were as well and how did that work out? If they don’t win it, I’m sure Mets fans already have a long line of excuses jotted down to yell at Mike and the Mad Dog. But like last year, all they really have to do is look in the mirror and they would see the reason they are a bunch of losers.

Onto to the West, the best division in the National League.

Los Angeles Dodgers

With four teams all capable of coming in first, the West is by far the best of the Senior Circuit. I’m predicting the Dodgers to put things together in ’08 and finish on top, especially now that they’ve got Joe Torre showing them how to win. Going from Grady Little to Joe Torre is like going from George Bush to a chimpanzee. Improvement is inevitable.

Projected Lineup

1-Juan Pierre-LF
2-Rafael Fucal-SS
3-Jeff Kent-2B
4-Andruw Jones-CF
5-Russell Martin-C
6-James Loney-1B
7-Matt Kemp-RF
8-Andy LaRoche-3B

There are a number of things to keep a close eye on in spring training.

First, is the Juan Pierre situation. As long as Pierre is in Dodgertown, he’ll start and leadoff. He earns too much money to sit. The Dodgers are reportedly trying to move him, but he’s earning a lot of money to just steal bases.

If Pierre does somehow get dealt, all hell will break loose. Andre Ethier will become the starting left fielder and bat 8th. Furcal will also gain value because he will move back to the leadoff slot and will be given the green light more often. Many are predicting a return to form for Furcal, but if he’s stuck in the 2 hole, I cannot agree.

There is also a battle at third base, between the decrepit Nomar Garciaparra and youngster LaRoche. 7 homers in 431 at-bats should be enough to tell you Nomar is cooked. Maybe if he was dealt to a more hitter friendly park his numbers could jump a little. But stuck in Chavez Ravine, he should be on the Dodgers bench.

Hopefully Torre will have the foresight to see LaRoche is ready to contribute. At 24, he’s done all he can in the minors. Time to prove it in the bigs. No matter who wins the starting gig, they are probably only NL only options at this time, though LaRoche might be mixed league material as the season goes on.

The best part about Jeff Kent is the fact that nobody in your draft really wants him. The 40 year old will slide to the later rounds, but he still is a 20+ homer 2nd baseman. Keep him in mind when all the youngsters are going off the board early.

Matt Kemp is an interesting subject. In some mixed league drafts I see him going as a top 15 outfielder, being taken around pick number 60 overall. That seems awfully high for a guy who has yet to reach 300 at-bats in a season. If you’re a believer, be prepared to jump on him early, because somebody else in your league is probably thinking the same thing.

I don’t know what to make of Andruw Jones. He seems too young to be washed up, but heading to L.A. doesn’t seem like it will help his power numbers. Expect an uptick in batting average (how could it go any lower) and around 30 homers this year. Nothing to sneeze at, but not the 50 homer stud he used to be. He’s another guy you can probably get real cheap. He was SO BAD last year that people will undervalue him….not worthy of the top 5 or 6 rounds, but not somebody you should forget about, either.

Martin, as you know, is probably the most valuable catcher, thanks to all those stolen bases. Just don’t use too high a pick on him, since catchers get banged up so easily.

If I had to choose one guy in this lineup to snag, it would be Loney. Prorate his numbers from last year and he’d hit 25 homers, drive in 100 and bat over .300. He is capable of doing that in ’08, which would make him a top five NL first baseman going forward.

Starting Rotation

1-Brad Penny
2-Derek Lowe
3-Chad Billingsley
4-Hiroki Kuroda
5-Jason Schmidt

I know a lot of people who have a man crush on Brad Penny, but I am not among them. Penny put together his best all around season in ’07, winning 16 games for the second straight year. But if I want an ace, I want a guy who will guarantee me an ERA under 3.50 and who will strike out 200. Penny is being bunched in with the top 10 NL starters and it’s not justifiable. There are many more reliable options. Sorry Gregg.

Derek Lowe, for example. Lowe has recorded three straight seasons with a sub 4 ERA and a WHIP below 1.3. He’s extremely durable and entering his contract year. Lowe and Penny are in essence the same pitcher, but Penny has been going higher in most drafts. Keep that in mind when it’s your turn.

Billingsley is one of those guys who get so overhyped that they end up going way too early in the draft. I think Billingsley has the potential to be a number one starter, but so do many other people. That usually results in him getting picked in the fifth round by the guy who likes to brag about how they got the next great thing. Strikeouts or not, don’t take him too high. 10th round in mixed leagues sounds fair.

Jason Schmidt is back from the dead, after making just 6 starts last year. Even when healthy, Schmidt’s best days are way behind him. In ’06 he threw 200 innings and his numbers were nothing to brag about. 2 years and a shoulder surgery later, those numbers aren’t going to improve.

If there is a Japanese newbie you want on the mound this year, it should be Kuroda. He’s locked into the rotation and will throw in a friendly pitchers park. Asian pitchers have a history of success when coming to LA (Hideo Nomo, Chan Ho Park) so why not Kuroda. Not mixed league material yet, but a definite NL option.

Bullpen

CL-Takashi Saito
SU1-Jonathon Broxton
SU2-Joe Beimel

The only thing bad to say about Saito is that he is 38 years old. His numbers since coming to America have been phenomenal and there’s nothing to indicate anything will change. Saito does it all….ERA, WHIP, K’s. 40 saves are definitely within reach.

I’m usually not an advocate of taking a setup man, but Broxton might be the exception. If something did happen to Saito, there is no question that Broxton would be the man to step in. And despite being a reliever, he’ll still get you more K’s than some starters (Kyle Kendrick, I’m calling you out).

Arizona Diamondbacks

Man, this is a tough division to predict. Arizona won the division last year and then went out and made some major offseason changes. They are loaded with young players and that gave them the leeway to make those moves. The D-Backs will be back in the postseason, but this year it will be as the wildcard.

Projected Lineup

1-Eric Byrnes-LF
2-Chris Young-CF
3-Orlando Hudson-2B
4-Mark Reynolds-3B
5-Conor Jackson-1B
6-Stephen Drew-SS
7-Justin Upton-RF
8-Chris Snyder-C

The only thing lacking in this lineup is a 40 home run guy. Despite that, Arizona has hitters from top to bottom. And the scary thing is that Byrnes it the oldest of the bunch and he’s only 32.

Speaking of Byrnes, it’s hard not to think last year was a bit of an aberration. Nothing in his past indicated he could steal 50 bases and I wouldn’t count on him repeating that number either. 30 to 35 is just fine, considering you’ll get 20-25 homers along with it. As I’ve said before, the outfield is probably the thinnest position in fantasy, so Byrnes belongs in the top tier.

32 home runs and 27 steals in your rookie campaign is mighty sweet. But a .237 average isn’t. Chris Young’s average should come up to the .260 range, but he’ll never be a .300 hitter. I can live with that, as long he goes 30-30, which he should do for the next 10 years. This might be the cheapest you can get him for the next decade, so climb on board.

Hudson seems like he should be batting second in this lineup and by April, he might. If so, look for his RBI’s to come down, but his steals might go up. Otherwise, he’s a reliable, double digit homer guy who won’t do much of any one thing. On the cusp of being mixed league material.

Arizona is putting a lot of faith in Mark Reynolds, who was a strikeout machine last year. Reynolds’ struck out once every three at-bats in ’07 and that’d gotta’ change. Otherwise, he’ll be pushing the 200 barrier and not in a good way. 30 home runs are possible as is a benching if he keeps swinging and missing. Chad Tracy is waiting in the wings if needed.

Jackson doesn’t provide the pop that you typically want from your first baseman and could be turning into the next Sean Casey or Mark Grace. Mixed leaguers avoid.

The same goes for Stephen Drew who looked flat out lost at times last season. It was only his first full season so there is still time for him to prove he isn’t his big brother.

The young guns just keep coming with Justin Upton hitting 7th. It’s not often that a 20 year old can become an impact player, so don’t expect miracles just yet. But his homers could match his age this year…just hope he doesn’t hit his weight.

A big second half has fantasy owners banking on Chris Snyder as a starting catcher in 2008. But keep in mind that Miguel Montero is a younger lefty who hit 10 homers in just over 200 at bats last year. A spring training battle which warrants watching.

Starting Rotation

1-Brandon Webb
2-Dan Haren
3-Randy Johnson
4-Doug Davis
5-Micah Owings

If Randy Johnson can bounce back from yet another back surgery, Arizona’s top three will be a force to be reckoned with.

As is, Webb and Haren form a young 1-2 punch that will potentially amass 35-40 wins. The move to the NL should only help Haren, who reached upper echelon status last year. Webb actually put up better numbers last year than he did in his Cy Young year of 2006.

Doug Davis strikes out a lot of guys as well. But holy control issues batman! Davis has averaged 96 walks over the past three years, which is an absolute WHIP killer. He’s got a live arm, but at age 32, it’s doubtful the switch will be flipped.

Micah Owings, on the other hand, is only 25 and could be a breakout candidate. Definite NL material, but potentially a mixed leaguer as well.

Bullpen

CL-Brandon Lyon
SU1-Tony Pena
SU2-Chad Qualls

The Arizona bullpen is full of fantastic arms looking to replace Jose Valverde. But none of them have ever been ‘THE GUY’ when it comes to closing, so question marks remain. Lyon has put up back to back strong seasons and has been tabbed as the closer heading into camp. 10 blown saves in 12 opportunities the past two years is scary, so we’ll see if he can handle it.

Tony Pena would likely be next in line if Lyon falters, so he is worth a grab. Chad Qualls struggled when given the opportunity in Houston, so it’s unlikely he’ll be placed into that position in Arizona.

San Diego Padres

It makes perfect sense….as much as Petco Park helps San Diego pitchers, Padres’ hitters suffer the consequences. The Pads replaced two thirds of their outfield this offseason, but are they better for it? I don’t think so and another third place finish is likely in the works.

Projected Lineup

1-Brian Giles-RF
2-Tadahito Iguchi-2B
3-Adrian Gonzalez-1B
4-Kevin Kouzmanoff
5-Khalil Green-SS
6-Jim Edmonds-CF
7-Scott Hairston-LF
8-Josh Bard-C

Didn’t you used to be Brian Giles? In his three seasons before heading to San Diego, Giles swatted 110 home runs. In the five seasons since, he’s hit just 85. Not to point fingers, but things seemed to turn on Giles just when baseball got serious on it’s drug testing and his career path has been eerily reminiscent of Jason Giambi. Anyway, Giles is now a leadoff hitter with no speed coming off knee surgery. An NL only option if I ever saw one.

I think Iguchi can thrive in San Diego, compiling similar numbers to what he put up prior to 2007. 15 homers, 15 steals, decent runs and RBI and an average that won’t kill you. You can do much, much worse with your starting second baseman.

Gonzalez is another guy who seems to have been around forever, yet he is only 25. Texas obviously gave up on him too early and he’s turned into a top notch first baseman. Not only did Gonzalez hit 30 bombs and drive in 100 last year, but he also scored 100 times. Considering how slow he is and how little power there is in this lineup, that’s a pretty impressive feat. He still is young enough to improve, so pay up.

I was high on Kouzmanoff heading into 2007, but an awful start led me to jump ship. Lesson learned…be patient. Kouz turned things around once the weather got warm and could reach the 30 homer plateau in ’08.

Khalil Greene can’t become an elite shortstop until he picks up that average. Greene is definitely NL worthy, but in mixed leagues, you might want to consider a platoon. Greene is a masher on the road and a sissy at home. When the Pads head out on a road trip, put him in your lineup. On those long homestands, plant him on the bench.

I thought Jim Edmonds retired four years ago, but apparently I was wrong. I’ll head into this years draft assuming he did.

Scott Hairston has been generating a lot of buzz this spring as a potential breakout candidate. He’s got the starting left field job, now let’s see what he does with it.

I’m not exactly sure why Josh Bard is starting over Michael Barrett, but for now, he is. Bard’s 5 homers in ’07 makes him a non-draftee in ’08. Take a flier on Barrett, who could produce if given playing time.

Starting Rotation

1-Jake Peavy
2-Chris Young
3-Greg Maddux
4-Randy Wolf
5-Mark Prior

Peavy will go in the first round in NL drafts and the second in mixed leagues. He’s the second best pitcher in fantasy and you’ve got to love all those K’s.

Chris Young and Randy Wolf are in similar situations heading into the season. Both had above average first halves, only to be shot down by injuries in the second. Young kept pitching, but maybe he shouldn’t have. Talk up Young’s second half numbers at your draft and then steal him in the 8th or 9th round.

Wolf was cruising along on the same boat as Young until that tricky shoulder of his acted up once again. If he can stay healthy, the lefty can put up some sweet numbers in Petco. Take him late and enjoy him while he’s in good health.

Maddux keeps on keeping on, still not walking anyone at the age of 41. His WHIP will help you and he’ll get double digit wins.

Mark Prior is hoping to be ready by May. Until then, Justin Germano, Shawn Estes and Glendon Rusch will be around to kill your ERA.

Bullpen

CL-Trevor Hoffman
SU1-Heath Bell
SU2-Cla Meredith

Another year, another 40 saves for Hoff. Trevor has recorded 37 saves or better in 11 of the past 12 seasons. The only time he failed to reach was the ’03 season which he missed due to injury. He never goes in the top tier of closers, but use that to your advantage. Especially considering that he’s never used outside of save situations. Bell belongs in the class of Broxton….solidly entrenched as number 2 in the pen.

Colorado Rockies

2007 was a nice story, but frankly, it took a run of epic proportions to get this team into the playoffs. Before they took off, the Rocks were pretty ordinary and I expect them to fall back into that mold in ’08.

Projected Lineup

1-Willy Taveras-CF
2-Troy Tulowitzki-SS
3-Todd Helton-1B
4-Matt Holliday-LF
5-Garrett Atkins-3B
6-Brad Hawpe-RF
7-Jayson Nix-2B
8-Yorvit Torrealba-C

Taveras stole 33 bases in less than 400 AB’s last season. Stay healthy Willy and you could challenge Reyes for the title. That’s a big if, but if you want steals, you can get’em.

Tulowitzki was dynamite in his rookie year and will be better this year. You can take 30 and 100 to the bank. Throw in a handful of steals and a .300 average and you’ve got 4 stud shortstops in the NL. Let the others take the big 3 in the first round….I’ll take Tulo in the 4th and like it.

Helton has become a slightly above average first baseman, worthy of mixed league consideration, but you’ll wish you did better.

Holliday backed up his breakout ’06 with an even better ’07. He can easily duplicate all of last year’s stats, which means he’s a first round pick.

Atkins is an interesting case, since last year was considered a disappointment. His numbers were down across the board, but still Colorado looked to move him this winter. Prospect Ian Stewart is itching to get into the lineup, but an experiment to move him to second base seems to have stalled. Atkins seems the type who would see a major drop off if he left Colorado, so draft knowing things could go south.

Hawpe completes the trifecta of mixed league outfielders in Colorado. He strikes out a lot, but it doesn’t kill his average. Another 100 RBI season seems like a lock.

Second base has Colorado in a quandary. Prospect Jayson Nix is being given first crack, but outside of some speed, he doesn’t bring much to the fantasy table. Marcus Giles was brought in for a look, but now it looks like converted outfielder Jeff Baker might be making a run. Anyone who has a starting job in this lineup can be valuable, so watch and listen.

Torrealba is a catcher. Whoopie.

Starting Rotation

1-Jeff Francis
2-Aaron Cook
3-Ubaldo Jimenez
4-Franklin Morales
5-Jason Hirsch

This is the reason the Rockies will finish fourth in the division. Outside of Francis, there isn’t a truly reliable arm in the bunch. And even Francis can’t be looked upon as a lock.

Francis is a workhorse who experienced a major jump in strikeouts in ’07. Still, pitching in Coors, he can’t get that ERA below 4, leaving him as a spot starter in mixed leagues.

Cook is a slightly younger version of Paul Byrd. Nothing special and an actual liability in the K department.

Jimenez and Morales both had their moments last year and both could become dependable starters with potentially good strikeout numbers. But neither have gone through the rigors of a full major league season and they will both be counted on heavily for the Rockies to have any chance at all.

Hirsch showed turned potential until he broke his leg last summer. He’s only 26 and could become the second most reliable pitcher on the staff.

Bullpen

CL-Manny Corpas
SU1-Brian Fuentes
SU2-Ryan Speier

You’ve got to feel for Fuentes, who lost his job after one rough four game stretch last season. Take out those games and Fuentes was his usual, overpowering self. But when Fuentes slipped, Corpas took over and now the job is all his. Fuentes will be a free agent next winter, so his time in Colorado is dwindling. He’ll get big money and the closer’s role somewhere else next year. For now, grab Corpas as a number one closer and take Fuentes in your NL only league as insurance.

San Francisco Giants

In all the divisions in baseball, there might not be any more clearly defined last place team as the San Francisco Giants. Despite some top notch young pitching, the Giants enter 2008 with absolutely no shot of contending. Look for Barry Zito to be dealt at the trade deadline….Oh wait, he’s under contract for 100 bazillion dollars. Forget I mentioned it.

Projected Lineup

1-Dave Roberts-LF
2-Omar Vizquel-SS
3-Aaron Rowand-CF
4-Bengie Molina-C
5-Rich Aurilia-3B
6-Randy Winn-RF
7-Ray Durham-2B
8-Dan Ortmeier-1B

Roberts will always get drafted because of his speed. But unless he can steals 2nd, 3rd and home, his run total might be equal to Barry Bonds’ hat size.

Vizquel decided to forego his social security and is back, though he’s having knee surgery as we speak. Next to go, the memory.

If Aaron Rowand matches last years totals in any of the four roto categories, I will eat this computer.

Molina is good as far as catchers go. Definite mixed leaguer and possibly the only one in the lineup.

Aurilia is worth a look in NL, only because he qualifies at first and third and in some leagues short and second.

While the Diamondbacks have all their guys 32 and under, the Giants have decided to go the opposite route. Winn smacked 14 homers and stole 15 bases, so obviously he’s hitting behind Rich Aurilia. Makes perfect sense. Think Bruch Bochy is glad he left San Diego for this mess?

Ray Durham missed time last season due to a bout with Alzheimers. He’s back this year, but shhh….nobody tell him.

And then comes Dan Ortmeier. He’s the baby of the bunch at 26 years old and thus is in charge of making sure the locker room is sufficiently stocked with wheat germ and prune juice.

Starting Rotation

1-Barry Zito
2-Matt Cain
3-Tim Lincecum
4-Noah Lowry
5-Kevin Correia

Zito is the fourth best pitcher on this squad so it makes obvious sense that he gets the most money and is the opening day starter. His strikeouts have dropped by 20 each of the last three years so by the time his contract is up, he’ll be K’ing about 19 guys a season.

Cain and Lincecum are AWESOME. I feel bad that they are stuck with this horrible team. Both deserve mixed league consideration, but the wins will be few and far between. Everything else will be there.

Noah Lowry won more games and had a better ERA than Zito last year. I don’t know if that speaks well of Lowry or poorly of Zito. Actually, it’s probably poorly of both.

Kevin Correia pitched well upon moving to the rotation. Grab him as your last pitcher in your NL only league and see what happens. I’d rather have him for a dollar instead of Zito for 5.

Bullpen

CL-Brian Wilson
SU1-Vinnie Chulk
SU2-Brad Hennessey

If a closer is on a team which gets no wins, is he really a closer? Wilson is a decent pitcher on a god awful team. He’ll be taken in mixed leagues, but there are about 30 guys who will end up with more saves then him.