First, some stuff you need to know….
Danny Richar has pretty much blown any shot of being the starting second baseman for the White Sox. First, Richar had the dreaded visa problem. It’s no big deal to have a visa problem if you’re David Ortiz. But if you’re Danny Richar, you better get your ass to America. Then, once he did get back to the states, Richar hurt his back. Any chance of him being a sleeper have gone by the wayside. You just can’t keep Juan Uribe down.
After watching Albert Pujols tear things up in the early going, I’ve changed my opinion regarding his draft status. The only way Albert goes under the knife is if the Cards are 30 games out of first. In most divisions, this could happen easily. But the NL Central is pretty putrid, so the Cards should hang around for a while. If Albert slips to me at number 11 in my mixed league, I’ll snatch him up. When he plays, he’s going to be awesome. Once he’s hit 20 homers through May, then I’ll pawn him off on some gullible owner (Randy, I hope you aren’t reading this.)
So much for Daric Barton being a sleeper ROY candidate. The A’s say his hand injury is more serious than expected, leaving Oakland with ¾ of their infield banged up and it’s March 7th. Dan Johnson suddenly has value again.
Can somebody please put a stop to Eddie Guardado! He entered spring training as third in line for saves in Texas and now it looks like he could be the man. CJ Wilson has the dreaded biceps tendonitis. Second in line Joaquin Benoit hasn’t even thrown yet due to shoulder soreness. Everyday Eddie suddenly has value again as well!
I failed to mention Stephen Pearce when I previewed the Pirates, only because there is nowhere for him to play. But every year there seems to be one guy who forces a teams hand and somehow squeezes his way into the lineup. Pearce might be this year’s version. Xavier Nady is nothing special, but he’s got seniority, which if you know anything about unions, goes a long way. But Pearce is absolutely killing the ball and the Pirates might soon have a big decision on their hands.
And then, we have my latest reason to loathe Dusty Baker. Being the sage that he is, Dusty actually has said that Joey Votto’s patience at the plate is a bad thing and he wants him to become more of a free swinger. I’m not making this up. Hey Joey, have fun in Triple A.
Now, let’s talk third year pitchers. I recently went through my notes from last spring to see what third year pitchers I targeted to break out. Here is what I came up with.
Dan Haren-good
Joe Blanton-good
John Maine-good
Zach Duke-bad
Rich Hill-good
Wandy Rodriguez-good (meaning he improved…he’s still not very good)
Matt Cain-good
Chuck James-bad
Scott Olsen-hideous
I, for one, am a firm believer in the third year theory. It’s not to say I’m taking a guy 10 rounds too early because he is entering his third season. But I will take a guy in the late rounds who is entering his third year, as opposed to someone like Mike Mussina or Josh Fogg. That being said, here is my 2008 list of third year targets.
Jered Weaver-He is the prototypical breakout candidate. He hasn’t been horrible his first two seasons, just solid. Year three, he makes the leap.
Joe Saunders-Another Angel who has been decent. He’s not much in the way of strikeouts, but the ERA will be below 4. In this day and age, that’s good.
Brian Bannister-Like Saunders, he’s not going to strike out 8 guys a game. But he’ll end up the year as the ace of the Royals. That’s not saying much, but Bannister is going to be good. Another Met mistake.
Carlos Villanueva-I’m a big fan of Carlos, I just hope he gets a shot at the rotation. Sooner or later the Brew Crew has to give up on Capuano and/or Bush. When they do, they’ve got their replacement lined up.
Boof Bonser-Just writing his name makes me shudder, he was so bad last year. Bonser is a 26 year old with a ton of potential who could finally put it together. A nice striker outer too!
Matt Garza-I don’t know if the move to Tampa helps or hurts Garza, but he’s young enough to still be the pitcher he was projected to be. 2007 was okay, but 2008 will be sweet.
Chad Billingsley-Billingsley was pretty stellar last year, but I think he’ll be even better in ’08. Loads of K’s, a solid ERA, a good team behind him. This will be his first year he enters the season as a starter.
Ubaldo Jimenez-Hard to say this is his third full season since he only appeared in 2 games in 2006. But Jimenez throws bullets and has good command. Throw in the Rockies offense behind him and Jimenez could be a hidden gem.
Sean Marshall-The only problem for Marshall is the depth of the Cubs rotation. Hopefully Lou realizes what he’s got in Marshall and gives him the fifth spot in the rotation. Marshall has been rumored to be going to Baltimore for Brian Roberts. If he does, he’ll be guaranteed a rotation spot and will pay dividends immediately.
Friday, March 7, 2008
AL EAST FANTASY PREVIEW
Tick…tick….tick…tick…..That sound you hear is your prep time wasting away as March has now rolled around and fantasy drafts are happening, whether you are ready or not.
The season itself starts on March 25th, with Oakland taking on Boston in the asinine Tokyo series.
I think Theo and the gang actually volunteered the Sox for this trip as a ruse. I keep picturing him and Larry Lucchino going all Jason Bourne on us and sneaking around the office of the Seibu Lions, trying to find the 50 million they paid to sign Dice-K.
I have to give it up to the Philadelphia Soul. My first arena football game was something NOT to remember. (And thanks to the Jager bombs, a good chunk of my memory has graciously been erased)
This just wasn’t a fun time and I cannot recommend it to anyone. Even sitting 10 rows from the action didn’t save us.
The best part of the night was sitting behind the family members of one of the Soul players. Apparently, this guy had a good game and at the end it was announced he was the two way player of the game.
Now, where I come from, going both ways is not a good thing. My friends and I pointed this out upon the announcement and were given a stern looking at by the family.
The Soul Mates were hot and one of my buddies actually taught one of them while she was in high school. I tried to get her to come up in the stands and give her former math teacher a private dance, but apparently she is too classy for that. But she did tell me she would be appearing at the Go-Go-A-Rama after the game if we wanted to stop by.
And could someone please explain to me all the Jon Bon Jovi jerseys? How about a Ron Jaworski jersey? At least he played football. For some reason I get the feeling if somebody threw Bon Jovi a football, it would look like it does when I throw a ball at my 7 year old daughter. It’s terribly awkward, but still it makes you laugh.
Some quick baseball developments before the AL East.
Remember what I said about Dusty Baker last week? Well, he did it to us again. Reds’ fans, please give a warm welcome to your opening day centerfielder, Corey Patterson. Throughout his career, Patterson has been compared to Willie Mays, minus the power, batting eye, plate patience, defensive ability, passion, respect for the game, and all around athletic ability.
Next, a name I failed to mention last week, but turns out I should have. Yorvit Torrealba is the starting catcher right now for the Rockies, but he’s got no discernable skills. Chris Iannetta has been a prospect for a while, but he punked out when given a chance last season and seems to be forgotten. A week into spring and Iannetta is stepping up and it wouldn’t take much to turn Yorvit into the new Geno Petralli.
Yovanni Gallardo and Brad Lidge are both getting ready to return to the pitching mounds. Both can be had on the cheap at your upcoming drafts. Neither of them have had arm troubles, so talk up the injuries at your draft, then snag them.
Jair Jurrjenns. I told you about him before. He’s started the spring off strong….don’t miss the boat.
Did any of you happen to catch Adam Eaton’s spring debut vs. the Yankees on last weekend? I wish they would broadcast everyone of his spring games, just as a disclaimer for fantasy owners. Even in the deepest of NL leagues, EATON MUST NOT BE DRAFTED!!!
The D-Backs have shaken up their projected lineup, going Chris Young, Orlando Hudson, Conor Jackson, Eric Byrnes. This should mean more steals for Young, but I still don’t see how a guy with a .295 OBP can be your leadoff hitter.
Bobby Crosby and Eric Chavez are both hurt already. I had February 27th in the pool, so I was off by a week.
Onto the AL East. Remember, the teams will be listed in predicted order of finish.
Boston Red Sox
The defending champs return almost the exact same roster as in 2007, so the only thing standing in the way of a repeat is a lost spark. The lineup is also starting to show some age, which could be another chink in the armor. Still, the Sox pitching staff is prime time with more youngsters on the cusp.
Projected Lineup
1-Dustin Pedroia-2B
2-Kevin Youkilis-1B
3-David Ortiz-DH
4-Manny Ramirez-LF
5-Mike Lowell-3B
6-JD Drew-RF
7-Jason Varitek-C
8-Coco Crisp-CF
9-Julio Lugo-SS
Despite being the relatively same lineup as last year, there is a lot you need to know about the 2008 version.
Manny and Varitek are both entering contract years. The team has a 20 million dollar option on Manny for 2009 and Manny is fully aware. If he comes out this year and goes .300-40-120, the team will have no option but to resign him. The fanbase will all but force them to, as they did with Mike Lowell after last season. Bank on Manny putting together one more HOF caliber season.
Varitek is still a viable mixed leaguer, but only because he’s a catcher. The Sox will not let the Captain go, unless he suddenly turns into Rod Barajas. But how much money he gets will be based on how much he produces in ’08.
The Sox overpaid following Mike Lowell’s career season. Don’t make the same mistake. There’s no chance Lowell bats .324 again…and no chance he drives in 120 again. Does that mean he’s terrible? No, but it does mean there are around 10 other third baseman that should be drafted ahead of him.
As long as Coco Crisp is on the team, he’ll be the starting centerfielder. Unfortunate, but true. While everyone clamors for Jacoby Ellsbury to be starting over Crisp, it’s forgotten that Coco is just two years removed from hitting 16 homers and batting .300. The worst thing that could happen would be a platoon. Cross your fingers that Tito gives one of these two guys the full time gig.
Dustin Pedroia is one of those guys in the mold of Walt Weiss and Jody Reed. A lot more valuable to the team itself than to us fantasy geeks. If he bats leadoff all season, he’ll score 100 times and bat around .300. But fantasywise, that’s about all you can expect. Maybe 10 steals?
A guy I like a lot who is slipping under the radar is Julio Lugo. Julio couldn’t buy a hit in the first half last season. He ended up batting just .237, but look at the rest of the numbers. 33 steals, 73 RBI’s, 71 runs. Considering his average has never been that bad, we’ll chalk it up as an anomaly. Add 50 points to the average and get all those other numbers and you’ve got yourself a decent shortstop.
Papi is Papi. I don’t really need to expound upon his track record. A second round steal if I ever saw one.
J.D. Drew’s numbers will improve across the board. Considering how putrid he was, that isn’t saying much. But he will be better.
Starting Rotation
1-Josh Beckett
2-Daisuke Matsuzaka
3-Tim Wakefield
4-Jon Lester
5-Clay Buchholz
Just the other day I was looking at some of my drafts from last season and was disgusted at how far Beckett fell in every instance. I know he was lousy in 2006, but what were we thinking? Plus, he’s still just 27 years old. Lots more to come.
Daisuke is a guy everyone has an opinion on. Projections are all over the place, some positive, some negative. I think a slight uptick is likely, mainly in the walks department. The one thing Dice-K has going for him is he’s a smart pitcher. A year learning the league and the strike zone should allow him to trim the 80 walks he had in ’07, while still striking out 200.
Can you believe Wakefield won 17 games last year? 8th best in the AL for the guy who no fantasy owner seems to ever want. Once again, with the injury to Curt Schilling, the Sox will be relying heavily on the 41 year old Wakefield and once again, 15 wins are possible. He won’t post an ERA under 3, but how bad do you want the wins?
Lester and Buchholz will be given every opportunity to stick in the rotation, especially in the early going. But tons of fun Bartolo Colon is lurking in the background and will be ready to sit at the big kids table if called upon.
Bullpen
CL-Jonathon Papelbon
SU1-Manny Delcarmen
SU2-Hideki Okajima
Papelbon joins the ranks of Cole Hamels and Prince Fielder as players who feel they are getting hosed by management and deserve big money. They are probably right, but that’s too bad. I’ll never side with a player who says he’s not making enough money. Even these guys who are whining are making hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The reason I mention this is because, to date, there has been nothing that could phase Papelbon. He’s been infallible in his first two full seasons and the thought of a contract squabble messing things up has to be a concern. John Smoltz recently spoke about his similar situation nearly 20 years ago and how it completely ruined him for half a season. Papelbon seems to have the mental toughness to work through it, but money does funny things to people. He’s the top closer until proven otherwise. Those who say K-Rod are mentally deficient.
Word is that if something were to happen to Papelbon, that Delcarmen would be the guy who gets first crack at closing. Something to consider when the team is as good as the Red Sox.
Toronto Blue Jays
What sets Toronto apart from others in the AL East is their pitching staff, which is stocked with the two big guns and three breakout candidates. The entire Blue Jays season likely hinges on two players: Ryan and Rolen. If these two can get healthy, the Jays will be an impact team.
Projected Lineup
1-David Eckstein-SS
2-Alex Rios-RF
3-Vernon Wells-CF
4-Frank Thomas-DH
5-Lyle Overbay-1B
6-Scott Rolen-3B
7-Aaron Hill-2B
8-Matt Stairs-LF
9-Gregg Zaun-C
Like I said, this lineup hinges on one player: Scottie ‘I’m too good for Philadelphia’ Rolen.
David Eckstein isn’t anything special, at least fantasywise. But he’ll bat close to .300 and get on base a lot for the big boppers, which is all that matters.
Rios is a star in the making and I think this is the year he turns himself into a first round pick. You know outfield isn’t the deepest position out there. Rios could go 30-30, while batting .300. I’m thinking more 30-25, but I won’t whine over 5 steals.
Wells is just 29 and 2007 was a fluke. A complete aberration. Blame it on the injured shoulder and get ready for 35 homers. Steal him in the 8th round.
Frank Thomas couldn’t outrun my fat Uncle Steve, but he can still jack. I wish he would have played at least 5 games at first base, but I’m petty.
Overbay went from 22-92-.312 to 10-44-.240. He might not ever hit 22 homers again, but his average has to come up. And if all goes according to my master plan, he won’t have to be hitting fifth for long.
That’s because my comeback player of the year will soon be hitting there. Rolen needed to get out of St. Louis and Toronto is the perfect laid back clubhouse for him. Rolen is 32 and seems like he has been around forever. And though he has a history of shoulder problems, things are looking good so far this spring. I’m banking on his shoulder holding up and Rolen eventually taking his power to the five hole, behind the Big Hurt.
Aaron Hill gets no respect, despite a tremendous year in ’07. And only being 26, those numbers could actually go up. A 20 home run season could be in the works. Throw in an average close to .300 and you’re looking at a top 5 AL only second sacker.
Did you know that Matt Stairs is 40 years old!? I’m not sure why, but when I read his age, I was completely blown away. He’s been in the league for 16 years!!! That being said, don’t draft him. If you got last year’s 21 home runs, shame on you.
And don’t even get me started on Gregg Zaun. Three straight years of double digit home runs, preceded by 10 straight years where he never hit more than 7. Somewhere in the bowels of Toronto is the fountain of youth and Stairs and Zaun are sitting on it.
Starting Rotation
1-Roy Halladay
2-AJ Burnett
3-Shaun Marcum
4-Dustin McGowan
5-Jesse Litsch
Take two seasoned veterans who know how to win (Halladay and Burnett), sprinkle in two young’ens with potential out the wazoo (Marcum and McGowan), and you’ve got the makings of a nasty front four.
We know what Halladay brings, but don’t mark him down as a true fantasy number one. Look at those K’s: 2006-132 in 220 IP, 2007-139 in 225 IP. Doc will get you wins, ERA and WHIP, but he’s not a 4 category stud anymore.
Burnett, on the other hand, can strike out the best of them, but only can do it 22-25 times a year. Those ten starts that he misses year in and year out are the only reason he isn’t a top 5 starter.
Now onto the M and M boys. Both are 26, both broke out in their third year in the bigs and both should win 15 this year. McGowan will get you more strikeouts, but Marcum has better control. The Jays rotation is set for the foreseeable future.
And let’s not forget Mr. Litsch who moved from Double A to the majors and posted a tidy 3.81 ERA in 111 IP. With Burnett’s eventual sprained coccyx, Litsch will get his fair share of starts this year.
Bullpen
CL-BJ Ryan
SU1-Jeremy Accardo
SU2-Casey Janssen
Count me among the ones who thought BJ Ryan wouldn’t be the closer in 2008. Accardo was very strong last year, saving 30 out of 35 and chipping in an ERA of just over 2. Why would they rush Ryan back?
But then I looked closer and realized Ryan is already 32 years old. He didn’t start closing until he was 30 and now, it was being taken from him.
But BJ would have none of that. It’s looking more and more like Ryan will be back and pitching in the 9th come April. All that does is leave us with a draft day conundrum. Ryan and Accardo both warrant drafting, but where should they go?
When in form, Ryan is a four category beast. Not many closers can say that and for that reason, I will take Ryan ahead of Accardo. And then cover your butt and take Accardo in the next round.
New York Yankees
The Yankees made a furious run in the second half of 2007 and made it to the playoffs. Granted, it was as a wildcard, but they had just enough to squeeze in and then get wiped up by Cleveland. This year, they return almost the same squad, man for man. And I have to say, I don’t like it. There are a lot of holes on this team and I’ll point out each and every one of them.
Projected Lineup
1-Johnny Damon-LF
2-Derek Jeter-SS
3-Bobby Abreu-RF
4-Alex Rodriguez-3B
5-Hideki Matsui-DH
6-Jorge Posada-C
7-Jason Giambi-1B
8-Robinson Cano-2B
9-Melky Cabrera-CF
Let’s start with the whole Damon-Matsui thing. Neither of these mutts want to play the field. Wait, let me rephrase that. Neither of them can play the field.
Damon is still valuable thanks to his 25-30 SB’s. But .270 hitting outfielders who can’t give you more than a dozen homers do not a fantasy team make.
Matsui went from being the Iron Samurai, to be Glass Yoshi. Still, he scored 100 and drove in 100, so his value is there. But a stiff neck, a bum knee, some bad sushi. I worry about him holding up for the entire season. Sticking as the DH will help, but how long until Hank throws a seven because of Johnny’s nasty defense?
I’ve had Derek Jeter on my share of fantasy squads over the years. But last year, I was glad I didn’t. 12 home runs, 73 RBI’s and 15 steals. That is just plain ordinary. The .322 average was nice, but seeing him draft in the third or fourth rounds of mixed leagues just turns my stomach.
A-Rod is the king. You don’t need me to tell you that. If you are in a league where someone DOESN’T take him with the first overall pick, consider yourself blessed.
Posada can’t take that .338 average of his in 2007 and stick it where the sun doesn’t shine. Now that he’s got his new contract, it’s back to .270 ville.
After years of abuse, all the steroids finally evacuated the body of Jason Giambi in ’07. It took five years, but the Giambino finally sweat them all out. The fact that he might lose playing time to Shelley Duncan or Wilson Betemit boggles the mind.
Outside of A-Rod, the guy I like best on this team fantasy wise is hitting 8th. Robinson Cano is a damn good hitter and should probably switch places in the lineup with Jeter. 97 RBI and 93 runs from your number 8 hitter is stellar. The number 3 second baseman overall behind Utley and Upton.
Now, let me say a few words about Melky Cabrera. I have a fantasy baseball magazine at home that lists Cabrera’s value as 17 dollars. Upon reading this, I decided the mag would serve me better as toilet paper.
Does Melky Cabrera have some sort of mind control that he uses to make people think he is better than he is? 15 homers over 1000 at-bats the last two season. An average of .275. OBP-.340.
And then, this piece of trash was supposed to be a centerpiece in getting Johan Santana to the Bronx. How could the Twins turn it down?
If somebody bids double digits for Melky in my AL only draft, I will get out of my seat and smack them across the face as hard as I can.
Starting Rotation
1-Chien-Ming Wang
2-Andy Pettitte
3-Phil Hughes
4-Mike Mussina
5-Ian Kennedy
Wang is a solid, yet unspectacular pitcher who is a lock to get you 17 wins. He doesn’t get hurt, he pitches 7 innings, gives up 3 runs and strikes out 4. Nice, but don’t break the bank on him. 15 bucks in auction, 10th round in a draft.
Pettitte’s numbers have been around league average the last two years. Actually, his WHIP has been pretty lousy….1.44 and 1.43. He gets a decent amount of K’s, but when you draft, keep in mind the extracurriculars. Andy will be spending a lot of time this summer discussing his juice buddy Roger. And if Andy is called into court, look out. He could fold like a house of cards.
Hughes is going to be a sweet pitcher. But much like Buchholz, fans have to keep their expectations in check. Only 21, Hughes has yet to go throw the rigors of a full, 200 inning season. That’s okay if you are the team’s fifth starter. But Hughes is being counted on for much more than that. I think 2009 will be the year you want Phillip. But if you are in a league with Yankee fans, bid him up. He might go for more than Wang.
Do you realize that the Yankees haven’t won a World Series since Mike Mussina came to town? And you can also bank that they won’t win one until he leaves. Either via trade or via body bag. The Moose ain’t going nowhere unless you make him. Just keep on doing what you’re doing Mikey. I learned my lesson last year. Never again!
Kennedy is a nice number five, but again, people are getting a bit carried away. He pitched 3 games last year people! Versus Tampa, Kansas City, and Toronto.
Bullpen
CL-Mariano Rivera
SU1-Joba Chamberlain
SU2-Kyle Farnsworth
I understand that saves are a flukey category and you can’t control the number of opportunities you receive. But 30 saves for Mariano last year? His highest ERA in 12 years and his highest WHIP in 10! And for that he gets the highest annual salary for a reliever in MLB history.
Chamberlain might be on the verge of ruin. The kid has tremendous stuff. And even though he showed in last year’s playoffs that his mental toughness is the equivalent of a spider monkey, he can still hit triple digits on the radar gun.
What worries me and should worry Yankee fans, is the fact that the team doesn’t seem to know what to do with him. Is he the closer of the future? If so, why even toy with putting him in the rotation? Granted you sorely need him there, but what is the long term plan? A lot of young arms have been ruined by moving them here and there. I’ve got my fingers crossed that the same fate befalls the skinny lad from Iowa.
Tampa Bay Rays
A dynamic, young lineup. Two potential aces atop the pitching staff. A new name and a new look. The Rays have all these things going for them, yet they still will stink in ’08. Let’s try to figure out why.
Projected Lineup
1-BJ Upton-CF
2-Carl Crawford-LF
3-Rocco Baldelli-DH
4-Carlos Pena-1B
5-Jonny Gomes-RF
6-Akinori Iwamura-2B
7-Evan Longoria-3B
8-Jason Bartlett-SS
9-Dioner Navarro-C
Right off the bat, you may as well remove Rocco Baldelli from the lineup. Rocco played only 20 games last year because of hamstring issues.
So, he entered training camp under the notion that he would primarily DH. The Rays would work him back into the outfield. Apparently, 10 months off wasn’t enough for him to properly recover from a sore hammy.
The other day, Baldelli saw his first action in the outfield and promptly reported soreness the next day and thus was unavailable, even as a DH.
I’m telling you now, one friend to another, don’t bother. Just keep your distance. Somebody else will definitely take a chance, but there are plenty of other guys out there who have learned how to properly stretch. Save yourself the trouble.
B.J. Upton is a guy who has shot up draft boards this year, mainly due to his second base eligibility. He easily could go 30-30 and to get that out of your second baseman is clutch. Late second or early third round pick.
Crawford is only 26, but he’s been a fantasy darling for years now. Funny thing is, I’m not sure if he has actually lived up to his potential. 11 home runs last year is a bit alarming, but it also means he will probably slide into the second round of most drafts. I also don’t quite get how a guy this fast doesn’t score 100 runs annually.
When it comes to Carlos Pena, I’m kind of at a loss for words. Pena had more home runs in 2007 (46) than at bats in 2006 (33). To say he came out of nowhere is an understatement. So what does that bode for 2008? Confusing, right?
Pena is only 29 years old and has always been considered a big time power prospect. It just took him seven years to figure it all out. You’re kidding yourself if you think he’ll hit 46 again, but 35 isn’t out of the question. A definite mixed leaguer, but don’t overpay for last season.
I would really like to see what Jonny Gomes could do with a 500 at bat season. I know his average stinks, but he seems to hit 20 homers annually, with only part time work. Even this year, the Rays have brought in Cliff Floyd of all people to take playing time away from Jonny. Talk about a slap in the face! We all know Floyd can’t play, so take a stab at Jonny late in your AL drafts. A couple bucks could earn you another 20 homers.
Iwamura did a whole heck of a lot of nothing last year. He qualifies at third and in a few weeks second, so he deserves AL only consideration. Mixed leagues, you’ve got many more options.
Why not take a chance on Evan Longoria? Somebody will, as he is this year’s version of Alex Gordon. Top notch prospect getting his big opportunity. Third base is basically all his, unless he completely flops in exhibition. 25 and 80 are both possible, so get on board.
Bartlett is a toad. If you are desperate for steals, go for it. Do Not Touch in mixed leagues….no average, no power, no likey.
Navarro had a decent second half, so take a chance that something clicked. He’s been a prospect for a long time…maybe the switch finally flicked on. If not, big deal. He won’t cost more than a buck.
Starting Rotation
1-Scott Kazmir
2-James Shields
3-Matt Garza
4-Edwin Jackson
5-Andy Sonnanstine
Kazmir and Shields are two premiere fantasy pitchers, both in the top 20 of starters. But starters 3 through 5 are the reason the Rays are who they are.
The twinge which has shut Kazmir down for a couple weeks this month is apparently just that. A twinge with no real damage. Somewhere, Victor Zambrano is laughing, while he cleans some guys pool.
If Kazmir could just cut down a little bit on the walks, he’d approach the top 5 starters. It’s all there for him. Let’s see if he puts it together.
Shields is an amazing story, because he wasn’t supposed to be anybody. He came out of nowhere in ’06, then blew up in ’07. I’m a big believer in the third year trend for young pitchers. That being the case, 2008 could be the year Shields goes over the top.
Garza comes with the pedigree, he just has yet to put it together. Another guy entering his third year in the show, Garza only has 133 innings of major league experience so far, so he might not be ready to shine.
But the Rays gave up Delmon Young for Garza, so it’s time to put up or shut up. He’s guaranteed a spot in the rotation and could be a sleeper. Definite AL only material.
Edwin Jackson is rotten to the core. Sonnanstine could end up having some AL only value, but why would you bother drafting the fifth starter on the Tampa Bay Rays? Stop and think about that when you’re on the clock.
Bullpen
CL-Troy Percival
SU1-Al Reyes
SU2-Dan Wheeler
Percival retired in 2005 after an MRI on his elbow showed up negative. As in ‘that’s one god awful elbow you’ve got there’. A stint in middle relief for the Cardinals last year manifested into a closer role for the Rays in ’08. Do you really want him on your team?
I find it hard to support any of these guys. Reyes got 26 saves last year, but in actuality was pretty lousy.
Wheeler was given the keys to the closer’s position in Houston last year and wrecked. Either take all three of these stiffs or don’t take any. I hate saves.
Baltimore Orioles
One of these days this proud franchise with a storied past will return to glory. But it absolutely, positively will not be in 2008.
Projected Lineup
1-Brian Roberts-2B
2-Luke Scott-LF
3-Nick Markakis-RF
4-Melvin Mora-3B
5-Aubrey Huff-1B
6-Ramon Hernandez-C
7-Adam Jones-CF
8-Kevin Millar-DH
9-Luis Hernandez-SS
Brian Roberts’ days in Balimore are numbered and he could be dealt by the time you read this. Wherever he goes, he’ll be a top tier second baseman. 40 steals are a lock and the rest of his stats are solid as well. In other words, he doesn’t hurt you in any major category.
Luke Scott seems like a prospect, but in reality he’s 29 and probably as good as he’s going to get. No speed, no average, a little pop. Should be way down on your AL only lists.
Markakis is the shimmering light in what is otherwise a big pile of dung. The young lefty even snuck in 18 steals last year, turning into a five category gem. The only thing to watch out for is team’s pitching around Markakis, now that protection Miguel Tejada is gone. ‘Hmmm, pitch to Markakis or pitch to Melvin Mora? What to do, what to do.’
I feel nauseous just looking at this lineup and a big reason is cleanup hitter Melvin Mora. He of the 14 home runs and 58 RBI’s in ’07. That’s worse than what Miguel Olivo did last year and he’s a backup catcher for the Royals.
After playing all those years on terrible Devil Rays squads, Aubrey Huff has now been passed off to the lowly Orioles. Makes you start to wonder if it’s the team or him. Huff has some pop, but little else. Notice a trend forming.
Ramon Hernandez….ibid.
Ahhhh….finally, an actual prospect! Adam Jones is going to be good. This year? I doubt it. Especially when surrounded by these stiffs. But he was the integral piece in the Erik Bedard deal and he’s got a world of talent. A 2009 breakout.
And onto Kevin Millar and we’re right back where we started.
And finally, there is Luis Hernandez. Back in the day, you used to be able to get away with having middle infielders who were all glove, no hit. Somebody needs to tell the O’s that those days are gone. Manager Dave Tremblay called Hernandez ‘the best defensive option’ for his squad. In other words, ‘we’ve got nobody who can play this damn position.’
Starting Rotation
1-Jeremy Guthrie
2-Adam Loewen
3-Daniel Cabrera
4-Garrett Olsen
5-Matt Albers
Do any of these five guys excite you?
Guthrie was rocked steady his second time around the league last year. Does that mean he can’t pitch? I don’t know. But I’m not going to pay to find out.
Loewen was doing okay last year until he fractured his elbow!! Not exactly reassuring. He is, however, a third year pitcher, even though last year kind of sucked.
Cabrera is fantasy poison. AVOID!!! DANGER!!!
Garrett Olsen had an ERA of 7.79 in 7 games last year. A WHIP over 2. See what I was talking about?
Albers came over in the Tejada trade. He started 18 games last year and had an ERA of 5.86. The Orioles are hopeful he could lower that by at least half a point this year.
Bullpen
CL-George Sherrill
SU1-Chad Bradford
SU2-Jamie Walker
It’s almost comical when you truly go over this team’s roster and break everything down position by position. George Sherrill? Nice numbers last year in a setup role in Seattle. Prior to that….crap. Hey, let’s make him our closer!!!
He’s a 30 year old situational lefty who has 4 saves over the last 3 years. The same amount as he has blown. Suddenly, Troy Percival is looking like a safe bet.
If there was some kind of track record to indicate he was a premiere guy, I could understand. But he’s just not that guy! And even though I know Adam Jones was the main piece in the Bedard deal, the O’s demanded Sherrill as well. So what if Bedard is actually younger than Sherrill. It’s very important that we have a closer for our 60 wins this year.
Not to brag, but I’m pretty sure I could do a better job than a quarter of the GM’s currently employed in MLB. Baltimore, you deserve better.
The season itself starts on March 25th, with Oakland taking on Boston in the asinine Tokyo series.
I think Theo and the gang actually volunteered the Sox for this trip as a ruse. I keep picturing him and Larry Lucchino going all Jason Bourne on us and sneaking around the office of the Seibu Lions, trying to find the 50 million they paid to sign Dice-K.
I have to give it up to the Philadelphia Soul. My first arena football game was something NOT to remember. (And thanks to the Jager bombs, a good chunk of my memory has graciously been erased)
This just wasn’t a fun time and I cannot recommend it to anyone. Even sitting 10 rows from the action didn’t save us.
The best part of the night was sitting behind the family members of one of the Soul players. Apparently, this guy had a good game and at the end it was announced he was the two way player of the game.
Now, where I come from, going both ways is not a good thing. My friends and I pointed this out upon the announcement and were given a stern looking at by the family.
The Soul Mates were hot and one of my buddies actually taught one of them while she was in high school. I tried to get her to come up in the stands and give her former math teacher a private dance, but apparently she is too classy for that. But she did tell me she would be appearing at the Go-Go-A-Rama after the game if we wanted to stop by.
And could someone please explain to me all the Jon Bon Jovi jerseys? How about a Ron Jaworski jersey? At least he played football. For some reason I get the feeling if somebody threw Bon Jovi a football, it would look like it does when I throw a ball at my 7 year old daughter. It’s terribly awkward, but still it makes you laugh.
Some quick baseball developments before the AL East.
Remember what I said about Dusty Baker last week? Well, he did it to us again. Reds’ fans, please give a warm welcome to your opening day centerfielder, Corey Patterson. Throughout his career, Patterson has been compared to Willie Mays, minus the power, batting eye, plate patience, defensive ability, passion, respect for the game, and all around athletic ability.
Next, a name I failed to mention last week, but turns out I should have. Yorvit Torrealba is the starting catcher right now for the Rockies, but he’s got no discernable skills. Chris Iannetta has been a prospect for a while, but he punked out when given a chance last season and seems to be forgotten. A week into spring and Iannetta is stepping up and it wouldn’t take much to turn Yorvit into the new Geno Petralli.
Yovanni Gallardo and Brad Lidge are both getting ready to return to the pitching mounds. Both can be had on the cheap at your upcoming drafts. Neither of them have had arm troubles, so talk up the injuries at your draft, then snag them.
Jair Jurrjenns. I told you about him before. He’s started the spring off strong….don’t miss the boat.
Did any of you happen to catch Adam Eaton’s spring debut vs. the Yankees on last weekend? I wish they would broadcast everyone of his spring games, just as a disclaimer for fantasy owners. Even in the deepest of NL leagues, EATON MUST NOT BE DRAFTED!!!
The D-Backs have shaken up their projected lineup, going Chris Young, Orlando Hudson, Conor Jackson, Eric Byrnes. This should mean more steals for Young, but I still don’t see how a guy with a .295 OBP can be your leadoff hitter.
Bobby Crosby and Eric Chavez are both hurt already. I had February 27th in the pool, so I was off by a week.
Onto the AL East. Remember, the teams will be listed in predicted order of finish.
Boston Red Sox
The defending champs return almost the exact same roster as in 2007, so the only thing standing in the way of a repeat is a lost spark. The lineup is also starting to show some age, which could be another chink in the armor. Still, the Sox pitching staff is prime time with more youngsters on the cusp.
Projected Lineup
1-Dustin Pedroia-2B
2-Kevin Youkilis-1B
3-David Ortiz-DH
4-Manny Ramirez-LF
5-Mike Lowell-3B
6-JD Drew-RF
7-Jason Varitek-C
8-Coco Crisp-CF
9-Julio Lugo-SS
Despite being the relatively same lineup as last year, there is a lot you need to know about the 2008 version.
Manny and Varitek are both entering contract years. The team has a 20 million dollar option on Manny for 2009 and Manny is fully aware. If he comes out this year and goes .300-40-120, the team will have no option but to resign him. The fanbase will all but force them to, as they did with Mike Lowell after last season. Bank on Manny putting together one more HOF caliber season.
Varitek is still a viable mixed leaguer, but only because he’s a catcher. The Sox will not let the Captain go, unless he suddenly turns into Rod Barajas. But how much money he gets will be based on how much he produces in ’08.
The Sox overpaid following Mike Lowell’s career season. Don’t make the same mistake. There’s no chance Lowell bats .324 again…and no chance he drives in 120 again. Does that mean he’s terrible? No, but it does mean there are around 10 other third baseman that should be drafted ahead of him.
As long as Coco Crisp is on the team, he’ll be the starting centerfielder. Unfortunate, but true. While everyone clamors for Jacoby Ellsbury to be starting over Crisp, it’s forgotten that Coco is just two years removed from hitting 16 homers and batting .300. The worst thing that could happen would be a platoon. Cross your fingers that Tito gives one of these two guys the full time gig.
Dustin Pedroia is one of those guys in the mold of Walt Weiss and Jody Reed. A lot more valuable to the team itself than to us fantasy geeks. If he bats leadoff all season, he’ll score 100 times and bat around .300. But fantasywise, that’s about all you can expect. Maybe 10 steals?
A guy I like a lot who is slipping under the radar is Julio Lugo. Julio couldn’t buy a hit in the first half last season. He ended up batting just .237, but look at the rest of the numbers. 33 steals, 73 RBI’s, 71 runs. Considering his average has never been that bad, we’ll chalk it up as an anomaly. Add 50 points to the average and get all those other numbers and you’ve got yourself a decent shortstop.
Papi is Papi. I don’t really need to expound upon his track record. A second round steal if I ever saw one.
J.D. Drew’s numbers will improve across the board. Considering how putrid he was, that isn’t saying much. But he will be better.
Starting Rotation
1-Josh Beckett
2-Daisuke Matsuzaka
3-Tim Wakefield
4-Jon Lester
5-Clay Buchholz
Just the other day I was looking at some of my drafts from last season and was disgusted at how far Beckett fell in every instance. I know he was lousy in 2006, but what were we thinking? Plus, he’s still just 27 years old. Lots more to come.
Daisuke is a guy everyone has an opinion on. Projections are all over the place, some positive, some negative. I think a slight uptick is likely, mainly in the walks department. The one thing Dice-K has going for him is he’s a smart pitcher. A year learning the league and the strike zone should allow him to trim the 80 walks he had in ’07, while still striking out 200.
Can you believe Wakefield won 17 games last year? 8th best in the AL for the guy who no fantasy owner seems to ever want. Once again, with the injury to Curt Schilling, the Sox will be relying heavily on the 41 year old Wakefield and once again, 15 wins are possible. He won’t post an ERA under 3, but how bad do you want the wins?
Lester and Buchholz will be given every opportunity to stick in the rotation, especially in the early going. But tons of fun Bartolo Colon is lurking in the background and will be ready to sit at the big kids table if called upon.
Bullpen
CL-Jonathon Papelbon
SU1-Manny Delcarmen
SU2-Hideki Okajima
Papelbon joins the ranks of Cole Hamels and Prince Fielder as players who feel they are getting hosed by management and deserve big money. They are probably right, but that’s too bad. I’ll never side with a player who says he’s not making enough money. Even these guys who are whining are making hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The reason I mention this is because, to date, there has been nothing that could phase Papelbon. He’s been infallible in his first two full seasons and the thought of a contract squabble messing things up has to be a concern. John Smoltz recently spoke about his similar situation nearly 20 years ago and how it completely ruined him for half a season. Papelbon seems to have the mental toughness to work through it, but money does funny things to people. He’s the top closer until proven otherwise. Those who say K-Rod are mentally deficient.
Word is that if something were to happen to Papelbon, that Delcarmen would be the guy who gets first crack at closing. Something to consider when the team is as good as the Red Sox.
Toronto Blue Jays
What sets Toronto apart from others in the AL East is their pitching staff, which is stocked with the two big guns and three breakout candidates. The entire Blue Jays season likely hinges on two players: Ryan and Rolen. If these two can get healthy, the Jays will be an impact team.
Projected Lineup
1-David Eckstein-SS
2-Alex Rios-RF
3-Vernon Wells-CF
4-Frank Thomas-DH
5-Lyle Overbay-1B
6-Scott Rolen-3B
7-Aaron Hill-2B
8-Matt Stairs-LF
9-Gregg Zaun-C
Like I said, this lineup hinges on one player: Scottie ‘I’m too good for Philadelphia’ Rolen.
David Eckstein isn’t anything special, at least fantasywise. But he’ll bat close to .300 and get on base a lot for the big boppers, which is all that matters.
Rios is a star in the making and I think this is the year he turns himself into a first round pick. You know outfield isn’t the deepest position out there. Rios could go 30-30, while batting .300. I’m thinking more 30-25, but I won’t whine over 5 steals.
Wells is just 29 and 2007 was a fluke. A complete aberration. Blame it on the injured shoulder and get ready for 35 homers. Steal him in the 8th round.
Frank Thomas couldn’t outrun my fat Uncle Steve, but he can still jack. I wish he would have played at least 5 games at first base, but I’m petty.
Overbay went from 22-92-.312 to 10-44-.240. He might not ever hit 22 homers again, but his average has to come up. And if all goes according to my master plan, he won’t have to be hitting fifth for long.
That’s because my comeback player of the year will soon be hitting there. Rolen needed to get out of St. Louis and Toronto is the perfect laid back clubhouse for him. Rolen is 32 and seems like he has been around forever. And though he has a history of shoulder problems, things are looking good so far this spring. I’m banking on his shoulder holding up and Rolen eventually taking his power to the five hole, behind the Big Hurt.
Aaron Hill gets no respect, despite a tremendous year in ’07. And only being 26, those numbers could actually go up. A 20 home run season could be in the works. Throw in an average close to .300 and you’re looking at a top 5 AL only second sacker.
Did you know that Matt Stairs is 40 years old!? I’m not sure why, but when I read his age, I was completely blown away. He’s been in the league for 16 years!!! That being said, don’t draft him. If you got last year’s 21 home runs, shame on you.
And don’t even get me started on Gregg Zaun. Three straight years of double digit home runs, preceded by 10 straight years where he never hit more than 7. Somewhere in the bowels of Toronto is the fountain of youth and Stairs and Zaun are sitting on it.
Starting Rotation
1-Roy Halladay
2-AJ Burnett
3-Shaun Marcum
4-Dustin McGowan
5-Jesse Litsch
Take two seasoned veterans who know how to win (Halladay and Burnett), sprinkle in two young’ens with potential out the wazoo (Marcum and McGowan), and you’ve got the makings of a nasty front four.
We know what Halladay brings, but don’t mark him down as a true fantasy number one. Look at those K’s: 2006-132 in 220 IP, 2007-139 in 225 IP. Doc will get you wins, ERA and WHIP, but he’s not a 4 category stud anymore.
Burnett, on the other hand, can strike out the best of them, but only can do it 22-25 times a year. Those ten starts that he misses year in and year out are the only reason he isn’t a top 5 starter.
Now onto the M and M boys. Both are 26, both broke out in their third year in the bigs and both should win 15 this year. McGowan will get you more strikeouts, but Marcum has better control. The Jays rotation is set for the foreseeable future.
And let’s not forget Mr. Litsch who moved from Double A to the majors and posted a tidy 3.81 ERA in 111 IP. With Burnett’s eventual sprained coccyx, Litsch will get his fair share of starts this year.
Bullpen
CL-BJ Ryan
SU1-Jeremy Accardo
SU2-Casey Janssen
Count me among the ones who thought BJ Ryan wouldn’t be the closer in 2008. Accardo was very strong last year, saving 30 out of 35 and chipping in an ERA of just over 2. Why would they rush Ryan back?
But then I looked closer and realized Ryan is already 32 years old. He didn’t start closing until he was 30 and now, it was being taken from him.
But BJ would have none of that. It’s looking more and more like Ryan will be back and pitching in the 9th come April. All that does is leave us with a draft day conundrum. Ryan and Accardo both warrant drafting, but where should they go?
When in form, Ryan is a four category beast. Not many closers can say that and for that reason, I will take Ryan ahead of Accardo. And then cover your butt and take Accardo in the next round.
New York Yankees
The Yankees made a furious run in the second half of 2007 and made it to the playoffs. Granted, it was as a wildcard, but they had just enough to squeeze in and then get wiped up by Cleveland. This year, they return almost the same squad, man for man. And I have to say, I don’t like it. There are a lot of holes on this team and I’ll point out each and every one of them.
Projected Lineup
1-Johnny Damon-LF
2-Derek Jeter-SS
3-Bobby Abreu-RF
4-Alex Rodriguez-3B
5-Hideki Matsui-DH
6-Jorge Posada-C
7-Jason Giambi-1B
8-Robinson Cano-2B
9-Melky Cabrera-CF
Let’s start with the whole Damon-Matsui thing. Neither of these mutts want to play the field. Wait, let me rephrase that. Neither of them can play the field.
Damon is still valuable thanks to his 25-30 SB’s. But .270 hitting outfielders who can’t give you more than a dozen homers do not a fantasy team make.
Matsui went from being the Iron Samurai, to be Glass Yoshi. Still, he scored 100 and drove in 100, so his value is there. But a stiff neck, a bum knee, some bad sushi. I worry about him holding up for the entire season. Sticking as the DH will help, but how long until Hank throws a seven because of Johnny’s nasty defense?
I’ve had Derek Jeter on my share of fantasy squads over the years. But last year, I was glad I didn’t. 12 home runs, 73 RBI’s and 15 steals. That is just plain ordinary. The .322 average was nice, but seeing him draft in the third or fourth rounds of mixed leagues just turns my stomach.
A-Rod is the king. You don’t need me to tell you that. If you are in a league where someone DOESN’T take him with the first overall pick, consider yourself blessed.
Posada can’t take that .338 average of his in 2007 and stick it where the sun doesn’t shine. Now that he’s got his new contract, it’s back to .270 ville.
After years of abuse, all the steroids finally evacuated the body of Jason Giambi in ’07. It took five years, but the Giambino finally sweat them all out. The fact that he might lose playing time to Shelley Duncan or Wilson Betemit boggles the mind.
Outside of A-Rod, the guy I like best on this team fantasy wise is hitting 8th. Robinson Cano is a damn good hitter and should probably switch places in the lineup with Jeter. 97 RBI and 93 runs from your number 8 hitter is stellar. The number 3 second baseman overall behind Utley and Upton.
Now, let me say a few words about Melky Cabrera. I have a fantasy baseball magazine at home that lists Cabrera’s value as 17 dollars. Upon reading this, I decided the mag would serve me better as toilet paper.
Does Melky Cabrera have some sort of mind control that he uses to make people think he is better than he is? 15 homers over 1000 at-bats the last two season. An average of .275. OBP-.340.
And then, this piece of trash was supposed to be a centerpiece in getting Johan Santana to the Bronx. How could the Twins turn it down?
If somebody bids double digits for Melky in my AL only draft, I will get out of my seat and smack them across the face as hard as I can.
Starting Rotation
1-Chien-Ming Wang
2-Andy Pettitte
3-Phil Hughes
4-Mike Mussina
5-Ian Kennedy
Wang is a solid, yet unspectacular pitcher who is a lock to get you 17 wins. He doesn’t get hurt, he pitches 7 innings, gives up 3 runs and strikes out 4. Nice, but don’t break the bank on him. 15 bucks in auction, 10th round in a draft.
Pettitte’s numbers have been around league average the last two years. Actually, his WHIP has been pretty lousy….1.44 and 1.43. He gets a decent amount of K’s, but when you draft, keep in mind the extracurriculars. Andy will be spending a lot of time this summer discussing his juice buddy Roger. And if Andy is called into court, look out. He could fold like a house of cards.
Hughes is going to be a sweet pitcher. But much like Buchholz, fans have to keep their expectations in check. Only 21, Hughes has yet to go throw the rigors of a full, 200 inning season. That’s okay if you are the team’s fifth starter. But Hughes is being counted on for much more than that. I think 2009 will be the year you want Phillip. But if you are in a league with Yankee fans, bid him up. He might go for more than Wang.
Do you realize that the Yankees haven’t won a World Series since Mike Mussina came to town? And you can also bank that they won’t win one until he leaves. Either via trade or via body bag. The Moose ain’t going nowhere unless you make him. Just keep on doing what you’re doing Mikey. I learned my lesson last year. Never again!
Kennedy is a nice number five, but again, people are getting a bit carried away. He pitched 3 games last year people! Versus Tampa, Kansas City, and Toronto.
Bullpen
CL-Mariano Rivera
SU1-Joba Chamberlain
SU2-Kyle Farnsworth
I understand that saves are a flukey category and you can’t control the number of opportunities you receive. But 30 saves for Mariano last year? His highest ERA in 12 years and his highest WHIP in 10! And for that he gets the highest annual salary for a reliever in MLB history.
Chamberlain might be on the verge of ruin. The kid has tremendous stuff. And even though he showed in last year’s playoffs that his mental toughness is the equivalent of a spider monkey, he can still hit triple digits on the radar gun.
What worries me and should worry Yankee fans, is the fact that the team doesn’t seem to know what to do with him. Is he the closer of the future? If so, why even toy with putting him in the rotation? Granted you sorely need him there, but what is the long term plan? A lot of young arms have been ruined by moving them here and there. I’ve got my fingers crossed that the same fate befalls the skinny lad from Iowa.
Tampa Bay Rays
A dynamic, young lineup. Two potential aces atop the pitching staff. A new name and a new look. The Rays have all these things going for them, yet they still will stink in ’08. Let’s try to figure out why.
Projected Lineup
1-BJ Upton-CF
2-Carl Crawford-LF
3-Rocco Baldelli-DH
4-Carlos Pena-1B
5-Jonny Gomes-RF
6-Akinori Iwamura-2B
7-Evan Longoria-3B
8-Jason Bartlett-SS
9-Dioner Navarro-C
Right off the bat, you may as well remove Rocco Baldelli from the lineup. Rocco played only 20 games last year because of hamstring issues.
So, he entered training camp under the notion that he would primarily DH. The Rays would work him back into the outfield. Apparently, 10 months off wasn’t enough for him to properly recover from a sore hammy.
The other day, Baldelli saw his first action in the outfield and promptly reported soreness the next day and thus was unavailable, even as a DH.
I’m telling you now, one friend to another, don’t bother. Just keep your distance. Somebody else will definitely take a chance, but there are plenty of other guys out there who have learned how to properly stretch. Save yourself the trouble.
B.J. Upton is a guy who has shot up draft boards this year, mainly due to his second base eligibility. He easily could go 30-30 and to get that out of your second baseman is clutch. Late second or early third round pick.
Crawford is only 26, but he’s been a fantasy darling for years now. Funny thing is, I’m not sure if he has actually lived up to his potential. 11 home runs last year is a bit alarming, but it also means he will probably slide into the second round of most drafts. I also don’t quite get how a guy this fast doesn’t score 100 runs annually.
When it comes to Carlos Pena, I’m kind of at a loss for words. Pena had more home runs in 2007 (46) than at bats in 2006 (33). To say he came out of nowhere is an understatement. So what does that bode for 2008? Confusing, right?
Pena is only 29 years old and has always been considered a big time power prospect. It just took him seven years to figure it all out. You’re kidding yourself if you think he’ll hit 46 again, but 35 isn’t out of the question. A definite mixed leaguer, but don’t overpay for last season.
I would really like to see what Jonny Gomes could do with a 500 at bat season. I know his average stinks, but he seems to hit 20 homers annually, with only part time work. Even this year, the Rays have brought in Cliff Floyd of all people to take playing time away from Jonny. Talk about a slap in the face! We all know Floyd can’t play, so take a stab at Jonny late in your AL drafts. A couple bucks could earn you another 20 homers.
Iwamura did a whole heck of a lot of nothing last year. He qualifies at third and in a few weeks second, so he deserves AL only consideration. Mixed leagues, you’ve got many more options.
Why not take a chance on Evan Longoria? Somebody will, as he is this year’s version of Alex Gordon. Top notch prospect getting his big opportunity. Third base is basically all his, unless he completely flops in exhibition. 25 and 80 are both possible, so get on board.
Bartlett is a toad. If you are desperate for steals, go for it. Do Not Touch in mixed leagues….no average, no power, no likey.
Navarro had a decent second half, so take a chance that something clicked. He’s been a prospect for a long time…maybe the switch finally flicked on. If not, big deal. He won’t cost more than a buck.
Starting Rotation
1-Scott Kazmir
2-James Shields
3-Matt Garza
4-Edwin Jackson
5-Andy Sonnanstine
Kazmir and Shields are two premiere fantasy pitchers, both in the top 20 of starters. But starters 3 through 5 are the reason the Rays are who they are.
The twinge which has shut Kazmir down for a couple weeks this month is apparently just that. A twinge with no real damage. Somewhere, Victor Zambrano is laughing, while he cleans some guys pool.
If Kazmir could just cut down a little bit on the walks, he’d approach the top 5 starters. It’s all there for him. Let’s see if he puts it together.
Shields is an amazing story, because he wasn’t supposed to be anybody. He came out of nowhere in ’06, then blew up in ’07. I’m a big believer in the third year trend for young pitchers. That being the case, 2008 could be the year Shields goes over the top.
Garza comes with the pedigree, he just has yet to put it together. Another guy entering his third year in the show, Garza only has 133 innings of major league experience so far, so he might not be ready to shine.
But the Rays gave up Delmon Young for Garza, so it’s time to put up or shut up. He’s guaranteed a spot in the rotation and could be a sleeper. Definite AL only material.
Edwin Jackson is rotten to the core. Sonnanstine could end up having some AL only value, but why would you bother drafting the fifth starter on the Tampa Bay Rays? Stop and think about that when you’re on the clock.
Bullpen
CL-Troy Percival
SU1-Al Reyes
SU2-Dan Wheeler
Percival retired in 2005 after an MRI on his elbow showed up negative. As in ‘that’s one god awful elbow you’ve got there’. A stint in middle relief for the Cardinals last year manifested into a closer role for the Rays in ’08. Do you really want him on your team?
I find it hard to support any of these guys. Reyes got 26 saves last year, but in actuality was pretty lousy.
Wheeler was given the keys to the closer’s position in Houston last year and wrecked. Either take all three of these stiffs or don’t take any. I hate saves.
Baltimore Orioles
One of these days this proud franchise with a storied past will return to glory. But it absolutely, positively will not be in 2008.
Projected Lineup
1-Brian Roberts-2B
2-Luke Scott-LF
3-Nick Markakis-RF
4-Melvin Mora-3B
5-Aubrey Huff-1B
6-Ramon Hernandez-C
7-Adam Jones-CF
8-Kevin Millar-DH
9-Luis Hernandez-SS
Brian Roberts’ days in Balimore are numbered and he could be dealt by the time you read this. Wherever he goes, he’ll be a top tier second baseman. 40 steals are a lock and the rest of his stats are solid as well. In other words, he doesn’t hurt you in any major category.
Luke Scott seems like a prospect, but in reality he’s 29 and probably as good as he’s going to get. No speed, no average, a little pop. Should be way down on your AL only lists.
Markakis is the shimmering light in what is otherwise a big pile of dung. The young lefty even snuck in 18 steals last year, turning into a five category gem. The only thing to watch out for is team’s pitching around Markakis, now that protection Miguel Tejada is gone. ‘Hmmm, pitch to Markakis or pitch to Melvin Mora? What to do, what to do.’
I feel nauseous just looking at this lineup and a big reason is cleanup hitter Melvin Mora. He of the 14 home runs and 58 RBI’s in ’07. That’s worse than what Miguel Olivo did last year and he’s a backup catcher for the Royals.
After playing all those years on terrible Devil Rays squads, Aubrey Huff has now been passed off to the lowly Orioles. Makes you start to wonder if it’s the team or him. Huff has some pop, but little else. Notice a trend forming.
Ramon Hernandez….ibid.
Ahhhh….finally, an actual prospect! Adam Jones is going to be good. This year? I doubt it. Especially when surrounded by these stiffs. But he was the integral piece in the Erik Bedard deal and he’s got a world of talent. A 2009 breakout.
And onto Kevin Millar and we’re right back where we started.
And finally, there is Luis Hernandez. Back in the day, you used to be able to get away with having middle infielders who were all glove, no hit. Somebody needs to tell the O’s that those days are gone. Manager Dave Tremblay called Hernandez ‘the best defensive option’ for his squad. In other words, ‘we’ve got nobody who can play this damn position.’
Starting Rotation
1-Jeremy Guthrie
2-Adam Loewen
3-Daniel Cabrera
4-Garrett Olsen
5-Matt Albers
Do any of these five guys excite you?
Guthrie was rocked steady his second time around the league last year. Does that mean he can’t pitch? I don’t know. But I’m not going to pay to find out.
Loewen was doing okay last year until he fractured his elbow!! Not exactly reassuring. He is, however, a third year pitcher, even though last year kind of sucked.
Cabrera is fantasy poison. AVOID!!! DANGER!!!
Garrett Olsen had an ERA of 7.79 in 7 games last year. A WHIP over 2. See what I was talking about?
Albers came over in the Tejada trade. He started 18 games last year and had an ERA of 5.86. The Orioles are hopeful he could lower that by at least half a point this year.
Bullpen
CL-George Sherrill
SU1-Chad Bradford
SU2-Jamie Walker
It’s almost comical when you truly go over this team’s roster and break everything down position by position. George Sherrill? Nice numbers last year in a setup role in Seattle. Prior to that….crap. Hey, let’s make him our closer!!!
He’s a 30 year old situational lefty who has 4 saves over the last 3 years. The same amount as he has blown. Suddenly, Troy Percival is looking like a safe bet.
If there was some kind of track record to indicate he was a premiere guy, I could understand. But he’s just not that guy! And even though I know Adam Jones was the main piece in the Bedard deal, the O’s demanded Sherrill as well. So what if Bedard is actually younger than Sherrill. It’s very important that we have a closer for our 60 wins this year.
Not to brag, but I’m pretty sure I could do a better job than a quarter of the GM’s currently employed in MLB. Baltimore, you deserve better.
Friday, February 29, 2008
NL WEST PREVIEW
Getting ready to go see my first Philadelphia Soul game...I’m not sure if I should be excited or not.
It’s not easy being a Red Sox fan in 2008. Those of you who have been a longtime fan know what I’m talking about. Since 2004, the bandwagon has turned into a Winnebago.
I was a little worried when they won in 2004 because that was the year my son was born. If the Sox were ever going to win again, did that mean I had to have another kid that same year just to make it happen? Because that meant the Sox were never going to win again. Luckily, that didn’t end up being the case.
I’ve been diehard since I was a young lad, when Butch Hobson was a mediocre ballplayer, not a drug dealer. My favorite player of all-time is Mike Greenwell. The redneck that they called Gator was a hell of a player for about a half dozen years, then he fell off the face of the earth, much to my dismay.
All that being said, I obviously have an intense hatred for everything Yankees. But in recent months, I’ve come to realize that there is something worse lurking.
What I speak of is the loathsome Met fan. As vile as Yankee fans are, I now know that Met fans precede them on the evolutionary scale.
And don’t even get me started on the team itself. They are a reflection of their fan base. This squad that Omar has put together is talented. But is there one guy who you look at and say ‘damn, that guy has heart!’? Last year’s collapse showed just how much this team lacks that intensity….from the manager down.
Reyes showed what he’s made of when things get tough. Beltran is always complaining about some bump or bruise. Wright is kind of whacky….an outgoing, jovial guy, but not one who will throw a fit when the team needs a spark.
Delgado and Alou don’t speak English, so they aren’t going to fire anybody up. Pedro will throw down with the elderly, but otherwise is content to hang out and play with his midget.
You might consider Billy Wagner a leader, but really he is just a d-bag. Wagner has a big mouth, but when the going gets tough, Wagner just goes….in the toilet.
All these guys are talented, but none of them have the ability to right the ship when things go south. That is the reason they completely lost it last year….nobody was there to take charge and shake them out of it.
They’ve added more talent this year, swapping Glavine for Santana, but that leadership quality is still absent. If they don’t get off to a fast start (which they should, because they are good), then Willie might be the fall guy, when really it should be Minaya for putting these guys in the same clubhouse.
Now let us touch upon the Mets fan. Listening to talk radio, you’d think the Mets were forced to play last season blindfolded while using a wiffle ball bat.
I’ve heard predictions as high as 110 for the Mets win total in ’08. Good luck with that. You’d better be at 110 by August 30th, because you clearly can’t win in September.
And can you please get past Jimmy Rollins saying the Phillies were the team to beat in the East. 14 months later, that one little phrase is still echoing in the heads of Met fans, even though their team WASN’T EVEN ACTUALLY MENTIONED!! Rollins didn’t mention the Mets….he said the Phillies were the team to beat. Is it the fact that he was right that bothers you?
And give it up to the quick-witted Carlos Beltran.
The Mets didn’t know how to respond to Rollins’ comments last year, but after a year of thinking about it, they’ve finally come up with a comeback. ‘This year, we’re the team to beat.’ Brilliant, Carlos. Have your team fleece the small market Twins for the best pitcher in baseball and then run your mouth. I think you should stick to what you do best….not living up to your contract.
I’m reminded of the Seinfeld episode where George came up with what he thought was a terrific comeback for a co-worker who insulted him. It took George months and to think up something smart enough to say, but he finally did, only to be put in his place seconds later.
And enough of the Phillies didn’t win the division, the Mets lost it. I know the Mets collapsed, but the Phils did beat them head to head 8 times in September.
Then there is the whole Lastings Milledge situation. Milledge is a young, brash, conceited ballplayer who has been touted for many years. He’s also still loaded with talent and will succeed in Washington.
Veterans on the Mets didn’t like Milledge and his big mouth, so Omar dealt him to the Nationals for a bag of beans...oops, I mean Ryan Church. Same difference. And they dealt him within the division!!
Is it so bad to be a little cocky? To show a little emotion? I tend to think this kind of character might have helped late last season. Instead, they cave to the turds on the roster and trade a talented outfielder, for pure mediocrity.
If there was anybody in that locker room who could command a single ounce of respect, this wouldn’t have had to happen.
Three years from now, this deal will go down with the trade of Scott Kazmir as one of the biggest mistakes in Mets history.
On paper, the Mets are the cream of the crop in the East. But last year they were as well and how did that work out? If they don’t win it, I’m sure Mets fans already have a long line of excuses jotted down to yell at Mike and the Mad Dog. But like last year, all they really have to do is look in the mirror and they would see the reason they are a bunch of losers.
Onto to the West, the best division in the National League.
Los Angeles Dodgers
With four teams all capable of coming in first, the West is by far the best of the Senior Circuit. I’m predicting the Dodgers to put things together in ’08 and finish on top, especially now that they’ve got Joe Torre showing them how to win. Going from Grady Little to Joe Torre is like going from George Bush to a chimpanzee. Improvement is inevitable.
Projected Lineup
1-Juan Pierre-LF
2-Rafael Fucal-SS
3-Jeff Kent-2B
4-Andruw Jones-CF
5-Russell Martin-C
6-James Loney-1B
7-Matt Kemp-RF
8-Andy LaRoche-3B
There are a number of things to keep a close eye on in spring training.
First, is the Juan Pierre situation. As long as Pierre is in Dodgertown, he’ll start and leadoff. He earns too much money to sit. The Dodgers are reportedly trying to move him, but he’s earning a lot of money to just steal bases.
If Pierre does somehow get dealt, all hell will break loose. Andre Ethier will become the starting left fielder and bat 8th. Furcal will also gain value because he will move back to the leadoff slot and will be given the green light more often. Many are predicting a return to form for Furcal, but if he’s stuck in the 2 hole, I cannot agree.
There is also a battle at third base, between the decrepit Nomar Garciaparra and youngster LaRoche. 7 homers in 431 at-bats should be enough to tell you Nomar is cooked. Maybe if he was dealt to a more hitter friendly park his numbers could jump a little. But stuck in Chavez Ravine, he should be on the Dodgers bench.
Hopefully Torre will have the foresight to see LaRoche is ready to contribute. At 24, he’s done all he can in the minors. Time to prove it in the bigs. No matter who wins the starting gig, they are probably only NL only options at this time, though LaRoche might be mixed league material as the season goes on.
The best part about Jeff Kent is the fact that nobody in your draft really wants him. The 40 year old will slide to the later rounds, but he still is a 20+ homer 2nd baseman. Keep him in mind when all the youngsters are going off the board early.
Matt Kemp is an interesting subject. In some mixed league drafts I see him going as a top 15 outfielder, being taken around pick number 60 overall. That seems awfully high for a guy who has yet to reach 300 at-bats in a season. If you’re a believer, be prepared to jump on him early, because somebody else in your league is probably thinking the same thing.
I don’t know what to make of Andruw Jones. He seems too young to be washed up, but heading to L.A. doesn’t seem like it will help his power numbers. Expect an uptick in batting average (how could it go any lower) and around 30 homers this year. Nothing to sneeze at, but not the 50 homer stud he used to be. He’s another guy you can probably get real cheap. He was SO BAD last year that people will undervalue him….not worthy of the top 5 or 6 rounds, but not somebody you should forget about, either.
Martin, as you know, is probably the most valuable catcher, thanks to all those stolen bases. Just don’t use too high a pick on him, since catchers get banged up so easily.
If I had to choose one guy in this lineup to snag, it would be Loney. Prorate his numbers from last year and he’d hit 25 homers, drive in 100 and bat over .300. He is capable of doing that in ’08, which would make him a top five NL first baseman going forward.
Starting Rotation
1-Brad Penny
2-Derek Lowe
3-Chad Billingsley
4-Hiroki Kuroda
5-Jason Schmidt
I know a lot of people who have a man crush on Brad Penny, but I am not among them. Penny put together his best all around season in ’07, winning 16 games for the second straight year. But if I want an ace, I want a guy who will guarantee me an ERA under 3.50 and who will strike out 200. Penny is being bunched in with the top 10 NL starters and it’s not justifiable. There are many more reliable options. Sorry Gregg.
Derek Lowe, for example. Lowe has recorded three straight seasons with a sub 4 ERA and a WHIP below 1.3. He’s extremely durable and entering his contract year. Lowe and Penny are in essence the same pitcher, but Penny has been going higher in most drafts. Keep that in mind when it’s your turn.
Billingsley is one of those guys who get so overhyped that they end up going way too early in the draft. I think Billingsley has the potential to be a number one starter, but so do many other people. That usually results in him getting picked in the fifth round by the guy who likes to brag about how they got the next great thing. Strikeouts or not, don’t take him too high. 10th round in mixed leagues sounds fair.
Jason Schmidt is back from the dead, after making just 6 starts last year. Even when healthy, Schmidt’s best days are way behind him. In ’06 he threw 200 innings and his numbers were nothing to brag about. 2 years and a shoulder surgery later, those numbers aren’t going to improve.
If there is a Japanese newbie you want on the mound this year, it should be Kuroda. He’s locked into the rotation and will throw in a friendly pitchers park. Asian pitchers have a history of success when coming to LA (Hideo Nomo, Chan Ho Park) so why not Kuroda. Not mixed league material yet, but a definite NL option.
Bullpen
CL-Takashi Saito
SU1-Jonathon Broxton
SU2-Joe Beimel
The only thing bad to say about Saito is that he is 38 years old. His numbers since coming to America have been phenomenal and there’s nothing to indicate anything will change. Saito does it all….ERA, WHIP, K’s. 40 saves are definitely within reach.
I’m usually not an advocate of taking a setup man, but Broxton might be the exception. If something did happen to Saito, there is no question that Broxton would be the man to step in. And despite being a reliever, he’ll still get you more K’s than some starters (Kyle Kendrick, I’m calling you out).
Arizona Diamondbacks
Man, this is a tough division to predict. Arizona won the division last year and then went out and made some major offseason changes. They are loaded with young players and that gave them the leeway to make those moves. The D-Backs will be back in the postseason, but this year it will be as the wildcard.
Projected Lineup
1-Eric Byrnes-LF
2-Chris Young-CF
3-Orlando Hudson-2B
4-Mark Reynolds-3B
5-Conor Jackson-1B
6-Stephen Drew-SS
7-Justin Upton-RF
8-Chris Snyder-C
The only thing lacking in this lineup is a 40 home run guy. Despite that, Arizona has hitters from top to bottom. And the scary thing is that Byrnes it the oldest of the bunch and he’s only 32.
Speaking of Byrnes, it’s hard not to think last year was a bit of an aberration. Nothing in his past indicated he could steal 50 bases and I wouldn’t count on him repeating that number either. 30 to 35 is just fine, considering you’ll get 20-25 homers along with it. As I’ve said before, the outfield is probably the thinnest position in fantasy, so Byrnes belongs in the top tier.
32 home runs and 27 steals in your rookie campaign is mighty sweet. But a .237 average isn’t. Chris Young’s average should come up to the .260 range, but he’ll never be a .300 hitter. I can live with that, as long he goes 30-30, which he should do for the next 10 years. This might be the cheapest you can get him for the next decade, so climb on board.
Hudson seems like he should be batting second in this lineup and by April, he might. If so, look for his RBI’s to come down, but his steals might go up. Otherwise, he’s a reliable, double digit homer guy who won’t do much of any one thing. On the cusp of being mixed league material.
Arizona is putting a lot of faith in Mark Reynolds, who was a strikeout machine last year. Reynolds’ struck out once every three at-bats in ’07 and that’d gotta’ change. Otherwise, he’ll be pushing the 200 barrier and not in a good way. 30 home runs are possible as is a benching if he keeps swinging and missing. Chad Tracy is waiting in the wings if needed.
Jackson doesn’t provide the pop that you typically want from your first baseman and could be turning into the next Sean Casey or Mark Grace. Mixed leaguers avoid.
The same goes for Stephen Drew who looked flat out lost at times last season. It was only his first full season so there is still time for him to prove he isn’t his big brother.
The young guns just keep coming with Justin Upton hitting 7th. It’s not often that a 20 year old can become an impact player, so don’t expect miracles just yet. But his homers could match his age this year…just hope he doesn’t hit his weight.
A big second half has fantasy owners banking on Chris Snyder as a starting catcher in 2008. But keep in mind that Miguel Montero is a younger lefty who hit 10 homers in just over 200 at bats last year. A spring training battle which warrants watching.
Starting Rotation
1-Brandon Webb
2-Dan Haren
3-Randy Johnson
4-Doug Davis
5-Micah Owings
If Randy Johnson can bounce back from yet another back surgery, Arizona’s top three will be a force to be reckoned with.
As is, Webb and Haren form a young 1-2 punch that will potentially amass 35-40 wins. The move to the NL should only help Haren, who reached upper echelon status last year. Webb actually put up better numbers last year than he did in his Cy Young year of 2006.
Doug Davis strikes out a lot of guys as well. But holy control issues batman! Davis has averaged 96 walks over the past three years, which is an absolute WHIP killer. He’s got a live arm, but at age 32, it’s doubtful the switch will be flipped.
Micah Owings, on the other hand, is only 25 and could be a breakout candidate. Definite NL material, but potentially a mixed leaguer as well.
Bullpen
CL-Brandon Lyon
SU1-Tony Pena
SU2-Chad Qualls
The Arizona bullpen is full of fantastic arms looking to replace Jose Valverde. But none of them have ever been ‘THE GUY’ when it comes to closing, so question marks remain. Lyon has put up back to back strong seasons and has been tabbed as the closer heading into camp. 10 blown saves in 12 opportunities the past two years is scary, so we’ll see if he can handle it.
Tony Pena would likely be next in line if Lyon falters, so he is worth a grab. Chad Qualls struggled when given the opportunity in Houston, so it’s unlikely he’ll be placed into that position in Arizona.
San Diego Padres
It makes perfect sense….as much as Petco Park helps San Diego pitchers, Padres’ hitters suffer the consequences. The Pads replaced two thirds of their outfield this offseason, but are they better for it? I don’t think so and another third place finish is likely in the works.
Projected Lineup
1-Brian Giles-RF
2-Tadahito Iguchi-2B
3-Adrian Gonzalez-1B
4-Kevin Kouzmanoff
5-Khalil Green-SS
6-Jim Edmonds-CF
7-Scott Hairston-LF
8-Josh Bard-C
Didn’t you used to be Brian Giles? In his three seasons before heading to San Diego, Giles swatted 110 home runs. In the five seasons since, he’s hit just 85. Not to point fingers, but things seemed to turn on Giles just when baseball got serious on it’s drug testing and his career path has been eerily reminiscent of Jason Giambi. Anyway, Giles is now a leadoff hitter with no speed coming off knee surgery. An NL only option if I ever saw one.
I think Iguchi can thrive in San Diego, compiling similar numbers to what he put up prior to 2007. 15 homers, 15 steals, decent runs and RBI and an average that won’t kill you. You can do much, much worse with your starting second baseman.
Gonzalez is another guy who seems to have been around forever, yet he is only 25. Texas obviously gave up on him too early and he’s turned into a top notch first baseman. Not only did Gonzalez hit 30 bombs and drive in 100 last year, but he also scored 100 times. Considering how slow he is and how little power there is in this lineup, that’s a pretty impressive feat. He still is young enough to improve, so pay up.
I was high on Kouzmanoff heading into 2007, but an awful start led me to jump ship. Lesson learned…be patient. Kouz turned things around once the weather got warm and could reach the 30 homer plateau in ’08.
Khalil Greene can’t become an elite shortstop until he picks up that average. Greene is definitely NL worthy, but in mixed leagues, you might want to consider a platoon. Greene is a masher on the road and a sissy at home. When the Pads head out on a road trip, put him in your lineup. On those long homestands, plant him on the bench.
I thought Jim Edmonds retired four years ago, but apparently I was wrong. I’ll head into this years draft assuming he did.
Scott Hairston has been generating a lot of buzz this spring as a potential breakout candidate. He’s got the starting left field job, now let’s see what he does with it.
I’m not exactly sure why Josh Bard is starting over Michael Barrett, but for now, he is. Bard’s 5 homers in ’07 makes him a non-draftee in ’08. Take a flier on Barrett, who could produce if given playing time.
Starting Rotation
1-Jake Peavy
2-Chris Young
3-Greg Maddux
4-Randy Wolf
5-Mark Prior
Peavy will go in the first round in NL drafts and the second in mixed leagues. He’s the second best pitcher in fantasy and you’ve got to love all those K’s.
Chris Young and Randy Wolf are in similar situations heading into the season. Both had above average first halves, only to be shot down by injuries in the second. Young kept pitching, but maybe he shouldn’t have. Talk up Young’s second half numbers at your draft and then steal him in the 8th or 9th round.
Wolf was cruising along on the same boat as Young until that tricky shoulder of his acted up once again. If he can stay healthy, the lefty can put up some sweet numbers in Petco. Take him late and enjoy him while he’s in good health.
Maddux keeps on keeping on, still not walking anyone at the age of 41. His WHIP will help you and he’ll get double digit wins.
Mark Prior is hoping to be ready by May. Until then, Justin Germano, Shawn Estes and Glendon Rusch will be around to kill your ERA.
Bullpen
CL-Trevor Hoffman
SU1-Heath Bell
SU2-Cla Meredith
Another year, another 40 saves for Hoff. Trevor has recorded 37 saves or better in 11 of the past 12 seasons. The only time he failed to reach was the ’03 season which he missed due to injury. He never goes in the top tier of closers, but use that to your advantage. Especially considering that he’s never used outside of save situations. Bell belongs in the class of Broxton….solidly entrenched as number 2 in the pen.
Colorado Rockies
2007 was a nice story, but frankly, it took a run of epic proportions to get this team into the playoffs. Before they took off, the Rocks were pretty ordinary and I expect them to fall back into that mold in ’08.
Projected Lineup
1-Willy Taveras-CF
2-Troy Tulowitzki-SS
3-Todd Helton-1B
4-Matt Holliday-LF
5-Garrett Atkins-3B
6-Brad Hawpe-RF
7-Jayson Nix-2B
8-Yorvit Torrealba-C
Taveras stole 33 bases in less than 400 AB’s last season. Stay healthy Willy and you could challenge Reyes for the title. That’s a big if, but if you want steals, you can get’em.
Tulowitzki was dynamite in his rookie year and will be better this year. You can take 30 and 100 to the bank. Throw in a handful of steals and a .300 average and you’ve got 4 stud shortstops in the NL. Let the others take the big 3 in the first round….I’ll take Tulo in the 4th and like it.
Helton has become a slightly above average first baseman, worthy of mixed league consideration, but you’ll wish you did better.
Holliday backed up his breakout ’06 with an even better ’07. He can easily duplicate all of last year’s stats, which means he’s a first round pick.
Atkins is an interesting case, since last year was considered a disappointment. His numbers were down across the board, but still Colorado looked to move him this winter. Prospect Ian Stewart is itching to get into the lineup, but an experiment to move him to second base seems to have stalled. Atkins seems the type who would see a major drop off if he left Colorado, so draft knowing things could go south.
Hawpe completes the trifecta of mixed league outfielders in Colorado. He strikes out a lot, but it doesn’t kill his average. Another 100 RBI season seems like a lock.
Second base has Colorado in a quandary. Prospect Jayson Nix is being given first crack, but outside of some speed, he doesn’t bring much to the fantasy table. Marcus Giles was brought in for a look, but now it looks like converted outfielder Jeff Baker might be making a run. Anyone who has a starting job in this lineup can be valuable, so watch and listen.
Torrealba is a catcher. Whoopie.
Starting Rotation
1-Jeff Francis
2-Aaron Cook
3-Ubaldo Jimenez
4-Franklin Morales
5-Jason Hirsch
This is the reason the Rockies will finish fourth in the division. Outside of Francis, there isn’t a truly reliable arm in the bunch. And even Francis can’t be looked upon as a lock.
Francis is a workhorse who experienced a major jump in strikeouts in ’07. Still, pitching in Coors, he can’t get that ERA below 4, leaving him as a spot starter in mixed leagues.
Cook is a slightly younger version of Paul Byrd. Nothing special and an actual liability in the K department.
Jimenez and Morales both had their moments last year and both could become dependable starters with potentially good strikeout numbers. But neither have gone through the rigors of a full major league season and they will both be counted on heavily for the Rockies to have any chance at all.
Hirsch showed turned potential until he broke his leg last summer. He’s only 26 and could become the second most reliable pitcher on the staff.
Bullpen
CL-Manny Corpas
SU1-Brian Fuentes
SU2-Ryan Speier
You’ve got to feel for Fuentes, who lost his job after one rough four game stretch last season. Take out those games and Fuentes was his usual, overpowering self. But when Fuentes slipped, Corpas took over and now the job is all his. Fuentes will be a free agent next winter, so his time in Colorado is dwindling. He’ll get big money and the closer’s role somewhere else next year. For now, grab Corpas as a number one closer and take Fuentes in your NL only league as insurance.
San Francisco Giants
In all the divisions in baseball, there might not be any more clearly defined last place team as the San Francisco Giants. Despite some top notch young pitching, the Giants enter 2008 with absolutely no shot of contending. Look for Barry Zito to be dealt at the trade deadline….Oh wait, he’s under contract for 100 bazillion dollars. Forget I mentioned it.
Projected Lineup
1-Dave Roberts-LF
2-Omar Vizquel-SS
3-Aaron Rowand-CF
4-Bengie Molina-C
5-Rich Aurilia-3B
6-Randy Winn-RF
7-Ray Durham-2B
8-Dan Ortmeier-1B
Roberts will always get drafted because of his speed. But unless he can steals 2nd, 3rd and home, his run total might be equal to Barry Bonds’ hat size.
Vizquel decided to forego his social security and is back, though he’s having knee surgery as we speak. Next to go, the memory.
If Aaron Rowand matches last years totals in any of the four roto categories, I will eat this computer.
Molina is good as far as catchers go. Definite mixed leaguer and possibly the only one in the lineup.
Aurilia is worth a look in NL, only because he qualifies at first and third and in some leagues short and second.
While the Diamondbacks have all their guys 32 and under, the Giants have decided to go the opposite route. Winn smacked 14 homers and stole 15 bases, so obviously he’s hitting behind Rich Aurilia. Makes perfect sense. Think Bruch Bochy is glad he left San Diego for this mess?
Ray Durham missed time last season due to a bout with Alzheimers. He’s back this year, but shhh….nobody tell him.
And then comes Dan Ortmeier. He’s the baby of the bunch at 26 years old and thus is in charge of making sure the locker room is sufficiently stocked with wheat germ and prune juice.
Starting Rotation
1-Barry Zito
2-Matt Cain
3-Tim Lincecum
4-Noah Lowry
5-Kevin Correia
Zito is the fourth best pitcher on this squad so it makes obvious sense that he gets the most money and is the opening day starter. His strikeouts have dropped by 20 each of the last three years so by the time his contract is up, he’ll be K’ing about 19 guys a season.
Cain and Lincecum are AWESOME. I feel bad that they are stuck with this horrible team. Both deserve mixed league consideration, but the wins will be few and far between. Everything else will be there.
Noah Lowry won more games and had a better ERA than Zito last year. I don’t know if that speaks well of Lowry or poorly of Zito. Actually, it’s probably poorly of both.
Kevin Correia pitched well upon moving to the rotation. Grab him as your last pitcher in your NL only league and see what happens. I’d rather have him for a dollar instead of Zito for 5.
Bullpen
CL-Brian Wilson
SU1-Vinnie Chulk
SU2-Brad Hennessey
If a closer is on a team which gets no wins, is he really a closer? Wilson is a decent pitcher on a god awful team. He’ll be taken in mixed leagues, but there are about 30 guys who will end up with more saves then him.
It’s not easy being a Red Sox fan in 2008. Those of you who have been a longtime fan know what I’m talking about. Since 2004, the bandwagon has turned into a Winnebago.
I was a little worried when they won in 2004 because that was the year my son was born. If the Sox were ever going to win again, did that mean I had to have another kid that same year just to make it happen? Because that meant the Sox were never going to win again. Luckily, that didn’t end up being the case.
I’ve been diehard since I was a young lad, when Butch Hobson was a mediocre ballplayer, not a drug dealer. My favorite player of all-time is Mike Greenwell. The redneck that they called Gator was a hell of a player for about a half dozen years, then he fell off the face of the earth, much to my dismay.
All that being said, I obviously have an intense hatred for everything Yankees. But in recent months, I’ve come to realize that there is something worse lurking.
What I speak of is the loathsome Met fan. As vile as Yankee fans are, I now know that Met fans precede them on the evolutionary scale.
And don’t even get me started on the team itself. They are a reflection of their fan base. This squad that Omar has put together is talented. But is there one guy who you look at and say ‘damn, that guy has heart!’? Last year’s collapse showed just how much this team lacks that intensity….from the manager down.
Reyes showed what he’s made of when things get tough. Beltran is always complaining about some bump or bruise. Wright is kind of whacky….an outgoing, jovial guy, but not one who will throw a fit when the team needs a spark.
Delgado and Alou don’t speak English, so they aren’t going to fire anybody up. Pedro will throw down with the elderly, but otherwise is content to hang out and play with his midget.
You might consider Billy Wagner a leader, but really he is just a d-bag. Wagner has a big mouth, but when the going gets tough, Wagner just goes….in the toilet.
All these guys are talented, but none of them have the ability to right the ship when things go south. That is the reason they completely lost it last year….nobody was there to take charge and shake them out of it.
They’ve added more talent this year, swapping Glavine for Santana, but that leadership quality is still absent. If they don’t get off to a fast start (which they should, because they are good), then Willie might be the fall guy, when really it should be Minaya for putting these guys in the same clubhouse.
Now let us touch upon the Mets fan. Listening to talk radio, you’d think the Mets were forced to play last season blindfolded while using a wiffle ball bat.
I’ve heard predictions as high as 110 for the Mets win total in ’08. Good luck with that. You’d better be at 110 by August 30th, because you clearly can’t win in September.
And can you please get past Jimmy Rollins saying the Phillies were the team to beat in the East. 14 months later, that one little phrase is still echoing in the heads of Met fans, even though their team WASN’T EVEN ACTUALLY MENTIONED!! Rollins didn’t mention the Mets….he said the Phillies were the team to beat. Is it the fact that he was right that bothers you?
And give it up to the quick-witted Carlos Beltran.
The Mets didn’t know how to respond to Rollins’ comments last year, but after a year of thinking about it, they’ve finally come up with a comeback. ‘This year, we’re the team to beat.’ Brilliant, Carlos. Have your team fleece the small market Twins for the best pitcher in baseball and then run your mouth. I think you should stick to what you do best….not living up to your contract.
I’m reminded of the Seinfeld episode where George came up with what he thought was a terrific comeback for a co-worker who insulted him. It took George months and to think up something smart enough to say, but he finally did, only to be put in his place seconds later.
And enough of the Phillies didn’t win the division, the Mets lost it. I know the Mets collapsed, but the Phils did beat them head to head 8 times in September.
Then there is the whole Lastings Milledge situation. Milledge is a young, brash, conceited ballplayer who has been touted for many years. He’s also still loaded with talent and will succeed in Washington.
Veterans on the Mets didn’t like Milledge and his big mouth, so Omar dealt him to the Nationals for a bag of beans...oops, I mean Ryan Church. Same difference. And they dealt him within the division!!
Is it so bad to be a little cocky? To show a little emotion? I tend to think this kind of character might have helped late last season. Instead, they cave to the turds on the roster and trade a talented outfielder, for pure mediocrity.
If there was anybody in that locker room who could command a single ounce of respect, this wouldn’t have had to happen.
Three years from now, this deal will go down with the trade of Scott Kazmir as one of the biggest mistakes in Mets history.
On paper, the Mets are the cream of the crop in the East. But last year they were as well and how did that work out? If they don’t win it, I’m sure Mets fans already have a long line of excuses jotted down to yell at Mike and the Mad Dog. But like last year, all they really have to do is look in the mirror and they would see the reason they are a bunch of losers.
Onto to the West, the best division in the National League.
Los Angeles Dodgers
With four teams all capable of coming in first, the West is by far the best of the Senior Circuit. I’m predicting the Dodgers to put things together in ’08 and finish on top, especially now that they’ve got Joe Torre showing them how to win. Going from Grady Little to Joe Torre is like going from George Bush to a chimpanzee. Improvement is inevitable.
Projected Lineup
1-Juan Pierre-LF
2-Rafael Fucal-SS
3-Jeff Kent-2B
4-Andruw Jones-CF
5-Russell Martin-C
6-James Loney-1B
7-Matt Kemp-RF
8-Andy LaRoche-3B
There are a number of things to keep a close eye on in spring training.
First, is the Juan Pierre situation. As long as Pierre is in Dodgertown, he’ll start and leadoff. He earns too much money to sit. The Dodgers are reportedly trying to move him, but he’s earning a lot of money to just steal bases.
If Pierre does somehow get dealt, all hell will break loose. Andre Ethier will become the starting left fielder and bat 8th. Furcal will also gain value because he will move back to the leadoff slot and will be given the green light more often. Many are predicting a return to form for Furcal, but if he’s stuck in the 2 hole, I cannot agree.
There is also a battle at third base, between the decrepit Nomar Garciaparra and youngster LaRoche. 7 homers in 431 at-bats should be enough to tell you Nomar is cooked. Maybe if he was dealt to a more hitter friendly park his numbers could jump a little. But stuck in Chavez Ravine, he should be on the Dodgers bench.
Hopefully Torre will have the foresight to see LaRoche is ready to contribute. At 24, he’s done all he can in the minors. Time to prove it in the bigs. No matter who wins the starting gig, they are probably only NL only options at this time, though LaRoche might be mixed league material as the season goes on.
The best part about Jeff Kent is the fact that nobody in your draft really wants him. The 40 year old will slide to the later rounds, but he still is a 20+ homer 2nd baseman. Keep him in mind when all the youngsters are going off the board early.
Matt Kemp is an interesting subject. In some mixed league drafts I see him going as a top 15 outfielder, being taken around pick number 60 overall. That seems awfully high for a guy who has yet to reach 300 at-bats in a season. If you’re a believer, be prepared to jump on him early, because somebody else in your league is probably thinking the same thing.
I don’t know what to make of Andruw Jones. He seems too young to be washed up, but heading to L.A. doesn’t seem like it will help his power numbers. Expect an uptick in batting average (how could it go any lower) and around 30 homers this year. Nothing to sneeze at, but not the 50 homer stud he used to be. He’s another guy you can probably get real cheap. He was SO BAD last year that people will undervalue him….not worthy of the top 5 or 6 rounds, but not somebody you should forget about, either.
Martin, as you know, is probably the most valuable catcher, thanks to all those stolen bases. Just don’t use too high a pick on him, since catchers get banged up so easily.
If I had to choose one guy in this lineup to snag, it would be Loney. Prorate his numbers from last year and he’d hit 25 homers, drive in 100 and bat over .300. He is capable of doing that in ’08, which would make him a top five NL first baseman going forward.
Starting Rotation
1-Brad Penny
2-Derek Lowe
3-Chad Billingsley
4-Hiroki Kuroda
5-Jason Schmidt
I know a lot of people who have a man crush on Brad Penny, but I am not among them. Penny put together his best all around season in ’07, winning 16 games for the second straight year. But if I want an ace, I want a guy who will guarantee me an ERA under 3.50 and who will strike out 200. Penny is being bunched in with the top 10 NL starters and it’s not justifiable. There are many more reliable options. Sorry Gregg.
Derek Lowe, for example. Lowe has recorded three straight seasons with a sub 4 ERA and a WHIP below 1.3. He’s extremely durable and entering his contract year. Lowe and Penny are in essence the same pitcher, but Penny has been going higher in most drafts. Keep that in mind when it’s your turn.
Billingsley is one of those guys who get so overhyped that they end up going way too early in the draft. I think Billingsley has the potential to be a number one starter, but so do many other people. That usually results in him getting picked in the fifth round by the guy who likes to brag about how they got the next great thing. Strikeouts or not, don’t take him too high. 10th round in mixed leagues sounds fair.
Jason Schmidt is back from the dead, after making just 6 starts last year. Even when healthy, Schmidt’s best days are way behind him. In ’06 he threw 200 innings and his numbers were nothing to brag about. 2 years and a shoulder surgery later, those numbers aren’t going to improve.
If there is a Japanese newbie you want on the mound this year, it should be Kuroda. He’s locked into the rotation and will throw in a friendly pitchers park. Asian pitchers have a history of success when coming to LA (Hideo Nomo, Chan Ho Park) so why not Kuroda. Not mixed league material yet, but a definite NL option.
Bullpen
CL-Takashi Saito
SU1-Jonathon Broxton
SU2-Joe Beimel
The only thing bad to say about Saito is that he is 38 years old. His numbers since coming to America have been phenomenal and there’s nothing to indicate anything will change. Saito does it all….ERA, WHIP, K’s. 40 saves are definitely within reach.
I’m usually not an advocate of taking a setup man, but Broxton might be the exception. If something did happen to Saito, there is no question that Broxton would be the man to step in. And despite being a reliever, he’ll still get you more K’s than some starters (Kyle Kendrick, I’m calling you out).
Arizona Diamondbacks
Man, this is a tough division to predict. Arizona won the division last year and then went out and made some major offseason changes. They are loaded with young players and that gave them the leeway to make those moves. The D-Backs will be back in the postseason, but this year it will be as the wildcard.
Projected Lineup
1-Eric Byrnes-LF
2-Chris Young-CF
3-Orlando Hudson-2B
4-Mark Reynolds-3B
5-Conor Jackson-1B
6-Stephen Drew-SS
7-Justin Upton-RF
8-Chris Snyder-C
The only thing lacking in this lineup is a 40 home run guy. Despite that, Arizona has hitters from top to bottom. And the scary thing is that Byrnes it the oldest of the bunch and he’s only 32.
Speaking of Byrnes, it’s hard not to think last year was a bit of an aberration. Nothing in his past indicated he could steal 50 bases and I wouldn’t count on him repeating that number either. 30 to 35 is just fine, considering you’ll get 20-25 homers along with it. As I’ve said before, the outfield is probably the thinnest position in fantasy, so Byrnes belongs in the top tier.
32 home runs and 27 steals in your rookie campaign is mighty sweet. But a .237 average isn’t. Chris Young’s average should come up to the .260 range, but he’ll never be a .300 hitter. I can live with that, as long he goes 30-30, which he should do for the next 10 years. This might be the cheapest you can get him for the next decade, so climb on board.
Hudson seems like he should be batting second in this lineup and by April, he might. If so, look for his RBI’s to come down, but his steals might go up. Otherwise, he’s a reliable, double digit homer guy who won’t do much of any one thing. On the cusp of being mixed league material.
Arizona is putting a lot of faith in Mark Reynolds, who was a strikeout machine last year. Reynolds’ struck out once every three at-bats in ’07 and that’d gotta’ change. Otherwise, he’ll be pushing the 200 barrier and not in a good way. 30 home runs are possible as is a benching if he keeps swinging and missing. Chad Tracy is waiting in the wings if needed.
Jackson doesn’t provide the pop that you typically want from your first baseman and could be turning into the next Sean Casey or Mark Grace. Mixed leaguers avoid.
The same goes for Stephen Drew who looked flat out lost at times last season. It was only his first full season so there is still time for him to prove he isn’t his big brother.
The young guns just keep coming with Justin Upton hitting 7th. It’s not often that a 20 year old can become an impact player, so don’t expect miracles just yet. But his homers could match his age this year…just hope he doesn’t hit his weight.
A big second half has fantasy owners banking on Chris Snyder as a starting catcher in 2008. But keep in mind that Miguel Montero is a younger lefty who hit 10 homers in just over 200 at bats last year. A spring training battle which warrants watching.
Starting Rotation
1-Brandon Webb
2-Dan Haren
3-Randy Johnson
4-Doug Davis
5-Micah Owings
If Randy Johnson can bounce back from yet another back surgery, Arizona’s top three will be a force to be reckoned with.
As is, Webb and Haren form a young 1-2 punch that will potentially amass 35-40 wins. The move to the NL should only help Haren, who reached upper echelon status last year. Webb actually put up better numbers last year than he did in his Cy Young year of 2006.
Doug Davis strikes out a lot of guys as well. But holy control issues batman! Davis has averaged 96 walks over the past three years, which is an absolute WHIP killer. He’s got a live arm, but at age 32, it’s doubtful the switch will be flipped.
Micah Owings, on the other hand, is only 25 and could be a breakout candidate. Definite NL material, but potentially a mixed leaguer as well.
Bullpen
CL-Brandon Lyon
SU1-Tony Pena
SU2-Chad Qualls
The Arizona bullpen is full of fantastic arms looking to replace Jose Valverde. But none of them have ever been ‘THE GUY’ when it comes to closing, so question marks remain. Lyon has put up back to back strong seasons and has been tabbed as the closer heading into camp. 10 blown saves in 12 opportunities the past two years is scary, so we’ll see if he can handle it.
Tony Pena would likely be next in line if Lyon falters, so he is worth a grab. Chad Qualls struggled when given the opportunity in Houston, so it’s unlikely he’ll be placed into that position in Arizona.
San Diego Padres
It makes perfect sense….as much as Petco Park helps San Diego pitchers, Padres’ hitters suffer the consequences. The Pads replaced two thirds of their outfield this offseason, but are they better for it? I don’t think so and another third place finish is likely in the works.
Projected Lineup
1-Brian Giles-RF
2-Tadahito Iguchi-2B
3-Adrian Gonzalez-1B
4-Kevin Kouzmanoff
5-Khalil Green-SS
6-Jim Edmonds-CF
7-Scott Hairston-LF
8-Josh Bard-C
Didn’t you used to be Brian Giles? In his three seasons before heading to San Diego, Giles swatted 110 home runs. In the five seasons since, he’s hit just 85. Not to point fingers, but things seemed to turn on Giles just when baseball got serious on it’s drug testing and his career path has been eerily reminiscent of Jason Giambi. Anyway, Giles is now a leadoff hitter with no speed coming off knee surgery. An NL only option if I ever saw one.
I think Iguchi can thrive in San Diego, compiling similar numbers to what he put up prior to 2007. 15 homers, 15 steals, decent runs and RBI and an average that won’t kill you. You can do much, much worse with your starting second baseman.
Gonzalez is another guy who seems to have been around forever, yet he is only 25. Texas obviously gave up on him too early and he’s turned into a top notch first baseman. Not only did Gonzalez hit 30 bombs and drive in 100 last year, but he also scored 100 times. Considering how slow he is and how little power there is in this lineup, that’s a pretty impressive feat. He still is young enough to improve, so pay up.
I was high on Kouzmanoff heading into 2007, but an awful start led me to jump ship. Lesson learned…be patient. Kouz turned things around once the weather got warm and could reach the 30 homer plateau in ’08.
Khalil Greene can’t become an elite shortstop until he picks up that average. Greene is definitely NL worthy, but in mixed leagues, you might want to consider a platoon. Greene is a masher on the road and a sissy at home. When the Pads head out on a road trip, put him in your lineup. On those long homestands, plant him on the bench.
I thought Jim Edmonds retired four years ago, but apparently I was wrong. I’ll head into this years draft assuming he did.
Scott Hairston has been generating a lot of buzz this spring as a potential breakout candidate. He’s got the starting left field job, now let’s see what he does with it.
I’m not exactly sure why Josh Bard is starting over Michael Barrett, but for now, he is. Bard’s 5 homers in ’07 makes him a non-draftee in ’08. Take a flier on Barrett, who could produce if given playing time.
Starting Rotation
1-Jake Peavy
2-Chris Young
3-Greg Maddux
4-Randy Wolf
5-Mark Prior
Peavy will go in the first round in NL drafts and the second in mixed leagues. He’s the second best pitcher in fantasy and you’ve got to love all those K’s.
Chris Young and Randy Wolf are in similar situations heading into the season. Both had above average first halves, only to be shot down by injuries in the second. Young kept pitching, but maybe he shouldn’t have. Talk up Young’s second half numbers at your draft and then steal him in the 8th or 9th round.
Wolf was cruising along on the same boat as Young until that tricky shoulder of his acted up once again. If he can stay healthy, the lefty can put up some sweet numbers in Petco. Take him late and enjoy him while he’s in good health.
Maddux keeps on keeping on, still not walking anyone at the age of 41. His WHIP will help you and he’ll get double digit wins.
Mark Prior is hoping to be ready by May. Until then, Justin Germano, Shawn Estes and Glendon Rusch will be around to kill your ERA.
Bullpen
CL-Trevor Hoffman
SU1-Heath Bell
SU2-Cla Meredith
Another year, another 40 saves for Hoff. Trevor has recorded 37 saves or better in 11 of the past 12 seasons. The only time he failed to reach was the ’03 season which he missed due to injury. He never goes in the top tier of closers, but use that to your advantage. Especially considering that he’s never used outside of save situations. Bell belongs in the class of Broxton….solidly entrenched as number 2 in the pen.
Colorado Rockies
2007 was a nice story, but frankly, it took a run of epic proportions to get this team into the playoffs. Before they took off, the Rocks were pretty ordinary and I expect them to fall back into that mold in ’08.
Projected Lineup
1-Willy Taveras-CF
2-Troy Tulowitzki-SS
3-Todd Helton-1B
4-Matt Holliday-LF
5-Garrett Atkins-3B
6-Brad Hawpe-RF
7-Jayson Nix-2B
8-Yorvit Torrealba-C
Taveras stole 33 bases in less than 400 AB’s last season. Stay healthy Willy and you could challenge Reyes for the title. That’s a big if, but if you want steals, you can get’em.
Tulowitzki was dynamite in his rookie year and will be better this year. You can take 30 and 100 to the bank. Throw in a handful of steals and a .300 average and you’ve got 4 stud shortstops in the NL. Let the others take the big 3 in the first round….I’ll take Tulo in the 4th and like it.
Helton has become a slightly above average first baseman, worthy of mixed league consideration, but you’ll wish you did better.
Holliday backed up his breakout ’06 with an even better ’07. He can easily duplicate all of last year’s stats, which means he’s a first round pick.
Atkins is an interesting case, since last year was considered a disappointment. His numbers were down across the board, but still Colorado looked to move him this winter. Prospect Ian Stewart is itching to get into the lineup, but an experiment to move him to second base seems to have stalled. Atkins seems the type who would see a major drop off if he left Colorado, so draft knowing things could go south.
Hawpe completes the trifecta of mixed league outfielders in Colorado. He strikes out a lot, but it doesn’t kill his average. Another 100 RBI season seems like a lock.
Second base has Colorado in a quandary. Prospect Jayson Nix is being given first crack, but outside of some speed, he doesn’t bring much to the fantasy table. Marcus Giles was brought in for a look, but now it looks like converted outfielder Jeff Baker might be making a run. Anyone who has a starting job in this lineup can be valuable, so watch and listen.
Torrealba is a catcher. Whoopie.
Starting Rotation
1-Jeff Francis
2-Aaron Cook
3-Ubaldo Jimenez
4-Franklin Morales
5-Jason Hirsch
This is the reason the Rockies will finish fourth in the division. Outside of Francis, there isn’t a truly reliable arm in the bunch. And even Francis can’t be looked upon as a lock.
Francis is a workhorse who experienced a major jump in strikeouts in ’07. Still, pitching in Coors, he can’t get that ERA below 4, leaving him as a spot starter in mixed leagues.
Cook is a slightly younger version of Paul Byrd. Nothing special and an actual liability in the K department.
Jimenez and Morales both had their moments last year and both could become dependable starters with potentially good strikeout numbers. But neither have gone through the rigors of a full major league season and they will both be counted on heavily for the Rockies to have any chance at all.
Hirsch showed turned potential until he broke his leg last summer. He’s only 26 and could become the second most reliable pitcher on the staff.
Bullpen
CL-Manny Corpas
SU1-Brian Fuentes
SU2-Ryan Speier
You’ve got to feel for Fuentes, who lost his job after one rough four game stretch last season. Take out those games and Fuentes was his usual, overpowering self. But when Fuentes slipped, Corpas took over and now the job is all his. Fuentes will be a free agent next winter, so his time in Colorado is dwindling. He’ll get big money and the closer’s role somewhere else next year. For now, grab Corpas as a number one closer and take Fuentes in your NL only league as insurance.
San Francisco Giants
In all the divisions in baseball, there might not be any more clearly defined last place team as the San Francisco Giants. Despite some top notch young pitching, the Giants enter 2008 with absolutely no shot of contending. Look for Barry Zito to be dealt at the trade deadline….Oh wait, he’s under contract for 100 bazillion dollars. Forget I mentioned it.
Projected Lineup
1-Dave Roberts-LF
2-Omar Vizquel-SS
3-Aaron Rowand-CF
4-Bengie Molina-C
5-Rich Aurilia-3B
6-Randy Winn-RF
7-Ray Durham-2B
8-Dan Ortmeier-1B
Roberts will always get drafted because of his speed. But unless he can steals 2nd, 3rd and home, his run total might be equal to Barry Bonds’ hat size.
Vizquel decided to forego his social security and is back, though he’s having knee surgery as we speak. Next to go, the memory.
If Aaron Rowand matches last years totals in any of the four roto categories, I will eat this computer.
Molina is good as far as catchers go. Definite mixed leaguer and possibly the only one in the lineup.
Aurilia is worth a look in NL, only because he qualifies at first and third and in some leagues short and second.
While the Diamondbacks have all their guys 32 and under, the Giants have decided to go the opposite route. Winn smacked 14 homers and stole 15 bases, so obviously he’s hitting behind Rich Aurilia. Makes perfect sense. Think Bruch Bochy is glad he left San Diego for this mess?
Ray Durham missed time last season due to a bout with Alzheimers. He’s back this year, but shhh….nobody tell him.
And then comes Dan Ortmeier. He’s the baby of the bunch at 26 years old and thus is in charge of making sure the locker room is sufficiently stocked with wheat germ and prune juice.
Starting Rotation
1-Barry Zito
2-Matt Cain
3-Tim Lincecum
4-Noah Lowry
5-Kevin Correia
Zito is the fourth best pitcher on this squad so it makes obvious sense that he gets the most money and is the opening day starter. His strikeouts have dropped by 20 each of the last three years so by the time his contract is up, he’ll be K’ing about 19 guys a season.
Cain and Lincecum are AWESOME. I feel bad that they are stuck with this horrible team. Both deserve mixed league consideration, but the wins will be few and far between. Everything else will be there.
Noah Lowry won more games and had a better ERA than Zito last year. I don’t know if that speaks well of Lowry or poorly of Zito. Actually, it’s probably poorly of both.
Kevin Correia pitched well upon moving to the rotation. Grab him as your last pitcher in your NL only league and see what happens. I’d rather have him for a dollar instead of Zito for 5.
Bullpen
CL-Brian Wilson
SU1-Vinnie Chulk
SU2-Brad Hennessey
If a closer is on a team which gets no wins, is he really a closer? Wilson is a decent pitcher on a god awful team. He’ll be taken in mixed leagues, but there are about 30 guys who will end up with more saves then him.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
NL CENTRAL FANTASY PREVIEW
But first….
Are you all still ‘Flyered UP’? I’m not exactly sure what happened to this team, but you know things are bad when they brought Vinny Prospal back to town to try and save the season.
Daniel Briere is exciting to watch in the offensive zone, but you’d think for 52 million he’d at least try to play some defense. I don’t know what was different in Buffalo, but last year he was +17.
I can’t help but watch the 76ers and beg for them to lose. How many times can you finish 8th in the East, lose out on a lottery pick and get mopped in the first round? I know you can’t tell the team to tank, but this mediocrity is getting old. There isn’t much worse than being stuck in NBA purgatory and that’s exactly where this team is.
But as depressing as the Sixers are, I have to be thankful that they didn’t do what the Suns and the Mavs did. I know these teams feel like their window of opportunity might be coming to an end, but the fact of the matter is Shaq and Jason Kidd don’t fix their problems.
Kidd is still able to run with the best of them, but he couldn’t gun with Will Ferrell. And with Dallas not being much of a running team, I have to think Mark Cuban panicked.
The Shaq situation is just the opposite. He can’t run with the Suns, he only slows them down offensively. If his body holds out, he should be able to help out defensively come playoff time. But Shawn Marion is a stud and he’ll be playing long after Shaq has limped off into the sunset. I was on board the Shaq deal at first, but having watched him in action with his new mates, I have to say the move won’t pay off.
At least the Mavs and Suns won’t have to worry about the Rockets in their run to the title. The good news is Yao will be healthy enough to lead China against the U.S. in the Summer Olympics.
But how great would it be if Yao pulled a WWE move next summer. Acting like he is going to play for China and then ripping off his jersey to reveal a United States uniform, right before the two teams were about to meet. Take that Communism!! Yao is a free man!! That might be the only thing that would actually get me to watch the Summer Olympics.
Teams are finally gearing up for their first actual spring training games and it’s about time. I’m sick and tired of hearing guys getting hurt and they aren’t even playing. You have to admit, of the four sports, baseball players are the biggest wusses.
Kevin Millwood pulled a hammy, reportedly while slipping on a pepperoni while at the Pizza Hut all you can eat buffet. Good news…he didn’t spill his plate.
Bartolo Colon has signed a one year deal with the Red Sox and reports are he is out of shape even for his standards. Bartolo has never been one to skip a meal and I can only guess that he came to camp weighing over 3 bills, since his playing weight last year was around 260.
And for good measure, the Sox have also brought in Freddy Garcia for a look see. What does that tell you? At least they aren’t stuck with Adam Eaton.
Your typical draft is only about 2 or 3 weeks, so it’s time to get serious.
On to the NL Central (yuck).
Milwaukee Brewers
Call me crazy, but I think the Brewers can win this division. I don’t know if that speaks well of the Brew Crew or down on the other teams in the division. The Central has fallen hard and Milwaukee might be the last one standing.
Projected Lineup:
1-Rickie Weeks-2B
2-JJ Hardy-SS
3-Ryan Braun-LF
4-Prince Fielder-1B
5-Corey Hart-RF
6-Billy Hall-3B
7-Mike Cameron-CF
8-Jason Kendall-C
The Brewers lineup is pretty much set in stone. The lone exception will be in centerfield, since Mike Cameron is suspended the first 25 games of the year due to his second violation of the substance abuse policy. Gabe Gross or Gabe Kapler will see the majority of playing time over the first month. Considering how often Cameron breaks down, it might help having that first month off.
Ryan Braun takes his stone hands to the outfield where his glove can do less damage. Enjoy the third base eligibility while you can. I’m not sure Braun can live up to the expectations following last year’s barrage. But the fact that he can steal 20 bases makes him worth a late first round pick.
Bill Hall moves back to third and I’m expecting a nice rebound in ’08. Corey Hart has right field all to himself and the 26 year old has the potential to go 30-30.
JJ Hardy has been slipping in a number of draft boards and I’m not sure why. The only reason I can think is last year’s lousy second half. But last year was the first that Hardy stayed completely healthy and 25 home run shortstops don’t just grow on trees. In NL only leagues, I’d rank Hardy the 5th best shortstop, behind Hanley, Reyes, J-Roll, and Tulowitzki.
Starting Rotation:
1-Ben Sheets
2-Jeff Suppan
3-Dave Bush
4-Yovanni Gallardo
5-Chris Capuano
ALT-Carlos Villanueva
One word describes the Brewers starting rotation: potential. All five of these guys can put up big numbers. But health and other issues have gotten in the way in the past couple years. Every year, things seem to just come together for certain teams and I think that will be the case in ’08 in Milwaukee.
Sheets was pretty ordinary his first couple of years in the league, but he was a workhorse. Then, in 2004, he turned the corner and became an ace. At the same time, he got the injury bug and hasn’t started more than 24 games in a season since. Sheets is the consummate number one for your squad, strikeouts and all. If he can eke out 30+ starts for you, you won’t be disappointed.
Jeff Suppan is NL only material. His WHIP will hurt you, guaranteed, but you might be able to milk 12-14 wins out of him.
Bush was a trendy pick heading into last season and then he forgot how to get guys out. Still, the potential is there, especially in the K department. I like him now that the hype has died down.
The best thing that could have happened is Gallardo getting injured this spring. There is nothing wrong with his arm, he’ll be back sometime in April and he’s falling on draftboards around the country. The young’en is a strikeout machine and will make you happy you drafted him.
Capuano has nowhere to go but up. An 18 game winner and an All-Star in 2005, Capuano can be a help if he gets his head on straight. The talent is there.
Bullpen:
CL-Eric Gagne
SU1-Derrick Turnbow
SU2-David Riske
The Brewers let Coco Cordero walk this winter and replaced him with the enigma that is Eric Gagne. Gagne was strong while closing for Texas early last season, but was an aberration when he went to Boston. Perhaps it was moving out of the closer role that was his downfall. We’ll find out. A move back to the NL should help as well.
Turnbow was an adequate closer in another life, but now he’s as safe as a Molotov cocktail when put in save situations. David Riske is more likely to get the call if Gagne eats it.
Chicago Cubs
When the Brewers collapsed last summer, it was the Cubs who swooped in and took the NL Central throne. But did the Cubs really impress anyone with their run? It seemed more what the Brewers didn’t do than what the Cubs did do. They’re roster looks nice on paper, but most of the players can be categorized as underachievers.
Projected Lineup:
1-Alfonso Soriano-LF
2-Ryan Theriot-SS
3-Derrek Lee-1B
4-Aramis Ramirez-3B
5-Kosuke Fukudome-RF
6-Mark DeRosa-2B
7-Geovany Soto-C
8-Felix Pie
Soriano has some explaining to do if he doesn’t reach 20 steals again this year. A late surge in September bodes well, but the fact that he is already saying this spring that his legs aren’t that healthy does not. As is, he’s a late second round pick in mixed leagues.
The best thing about Ryan Theriot is that he qualifies at 2B and SS and in some leagues 3B. He’s got speed and he’s got a reputation as a great guy, but I could care less about his clubhouse rep. He hit 3 home runs and batted .266 last season. NL only okay, mixed leagues, don’t waste a pick.
For those waxing nostalgic, I present Derrek Lee. 2005 seems like eons ago and he’ll never be the same player. If you’re expecting 40 homers, god speed. You can get Adam LaRoche 6 rounds later and only feel it in your batting average.
It’s hard to find a flaw with A-Ram, though I’d like at least 1 stolen base this year. But the key to the Cubs lineup will be Fukudome. If he can’t make the transition, that will leave the Cubs vulnerable from hitters 5 through 9 and that’s no good. I won’t even pretend to know what this guy will do and anyone who tells you they can is lying.
DeRosa is another guy who qualifies all over, making him valuable in NL only leagues. 10 homers, 60-70 RBI’s. Nothing to get your heart racing.
Soto is intriguing as NL catchers go. While that doesn’t say much, he does have the starting job with no real competition. 15 to 20 homers is a possibility.
Felix Pie seems like he should be 30 years old by now, but he’s still just 23. He’s got the starting gig all to himself and if he doesn’t show it this year, Pie might be cooked.
Starting Rotation:
1-Carlos Zambrano
2-Ted Lilly
3-Rich Hill
4-Jason Marquis
5-Ryan Dempster
ALT-Jon Lieber
Do not overpay for Carlos!!! Let me say that first. I can’t help but feel bad things are on the horizon for the big man. He’s only 26 and already has logged just under 1200 innings pitched. I know he prides himself on being a workhorse, but eventually, the injury bug catches up with everybody. The dip in numbers across the board last year have me staying away.
Ted Lilly put up validated his big contract with his best year ever in ’07. The switch to the NL did the lefty good and I think he’s a safer pick than Carlos, though not as safe as the next guy.
Rich Hill should be the top Cub pitcher taken in your draft. He won’t be, but he should be. In his first full season in the majors, Hill struck out nearly a batter an inning. Ignore the 11 wins, as poor run support was mainly to blame. 15 wins and 200 strikeouts are both likely.
Jason Marquis is an innings eater and not much else. If you have to draft him, make sure you trade him at the All-Star break. Trust me on this.
Ryan Dempster is being converted back to a starter, something he hasn’t done regularly since 2003. When that doesn’t work, Jon Lieber will lug his big butt out to the mound.
Bullpen:
CL-Bobby Howry?
SU1-Kerry Wood
SU2-Carlos Marmol
For a contending team, this is a pretty unsettled situation. Howry seems to be the most reliable. Marmol is the youngster with the cannon arm. Wood is the veteran trying to come back and prove he is worth a damn. I’m personally pulling for Marmol who could be a monster if he earns saves. 96 K’s in 69 innings makes him worth the dime.
Cincinnati Reds
I’d give the Reds a chance in the Central if it wasn’t for one thing. Dusty Baker. He is to fantasy baseball what Mike Shanahan is to fantasy football. Pure evil and I’ll explain why.
Starting Lineup:
1-Ryan Freel-CF
2-Adam Dunn-RF
3-Brandon Phillips-2B
4-Ken Griffey Jr.-LF
5-Edwin Encarnacion-3B
6-Scott Hatteburg-1B
7-Alex Gonzalez-SS
8-David Ross-C
The fact that Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, two of the most highly touted and ready for prime time prospects in all of baseball, aren’t projected to start for the Reds has me seeing red.
Ryan Freel is a scrub who can run fast and get hurt a lot. 64 RBI’s in three years, what more do I have to say. I don’t care if he bats leadoff. That didn’t stop Jimmy Rollins from driving in 94 runs, did it? I realize Bruce is only 20 years old, but face it….Freel stinks.
Just a bit more smelly is Scott Hatteburg. 10 home runs from your starting first baseman in the homer haven that is the Great American Ballpark is a travesty. And there’s good old Dusty doing what he’s always done. Sticking with the grizzled, washed up veteran and putting Baby in a corner. Votto is 24 and ready to pop. He may be young and unproven, but is there a chance in heck he does worse than Hatteburg? No way.
Dunn, Phillips, Griffey and Encarnacion form a daunting stretch for opposing pitchers. If Votto would be hitting sixth, oooh baby. Also, look for Encarnacion to be a steal in your draft, because he’ll go for 30 bombs this year.
Starting Rotation:
1-Aaron Harang
2-Bronson Arroyo
3-Matt Belisle
4-Homer Bailey
5-Edinson Volquez
Harang has become a legitimate fantasy ace, topping 200 K’s for two straight years. But from there, things get dicey.
Arroyo could post a sub 4 ERA and he never misses a turn. Look for the WHIP and ERA to both come down this year and the wins to go up. You could do much, much worse.
Speak of the devil. Here comes Matt Belisle, another crappy number 3 and a major reason the Reds won’t be able to hang. Don’t take unless you are a masochist.
Homer Bailey is the Red’s top pitching prospect and will get a chance to prove himself, despite a horrific 2007. He could be an NL option for this year, but by 2009, Dusty will have turned his arm to mush, so long term leagues beware.
There are two ways to look at Edinson Volquez. One is that he was Texas’ top pitching prospect, brought over to Cincy in the Josh Hamilton deal. Volquez could be a nice sleeper. The second way to look at Volquez is the fact that the Reds signed Josh ‘I’m a scrub of epic proportions’ Fogg to potentially be the fifth starter. If Volquez can’t beat out Fogg, he might as well retire.
Bullpen:
CL-Francisco Cordero
SU1-David Weathers
SU2-Mike Stanton
I’m not sure why the Reds felt compelled to spend a ton of money on Cordero when their starting rotation could have used the help. For some reason, David Weathers just gets no respect, despite three straight solid years in the Cincy pen. The move makes Reds relievers an asset, in a day and age when that is becoming more and more important. Cordero is a number one closer who could save 40 games again.
Houston Astros
After a couple years on the unemployment line, Ed Wade found a new home and Houston fans are feeling the wrath. Ed made some major changes this winter, including a deal with his old squad. And while the Astros offense looks potent, I still can’t get over the fact that Woody Williams will be their number 2 starter. I reapeat…Woody Williams will be their number 2 starter. Way to go Ed.
Projected Lineup:
1-Michael Bourn-CF
2-Kaz Matsui-2B
3-Miguel Tejada-SS
4-Lance Berkman-1B
5-Carlos Lee-LF
6-Hunter Pence-RF
7-Ty Wigginton-3B
8-JR Towles-C
You see, a pretty nice lineup. We all know Bourn can run and he could swipe 50 this season now that’s he has a starting job. He might not drive in 20 runs, but 50 steals is 50 steals. After being the butt of jokes by Mets haters for years, Matsui has settled in as a decent second baseman. He seems like a perfect number two hitter, who can score some runs and steal some bases. A little of this, a little of that.
Tejada is a perfect fit for Tropicana Field and it’s short left field porch. He’ll hit .300 and drive in close to 100, which is allright for you starting shortstop.
Berkman and Lee will continue to mash and each should drive in 100 while hitting at least 30 homers. If Hunter Pence could stay out of the Turkish Bath’s, he could do the same. Plus steal 20 bases.
Wigginton will play third, but also qualifies at second base. 25 home runs from your number seven hitter is always strong.
J.R. Towles numbers in September were close to what Brad Ausmus put up from April to August. Don’t expect Towles to hit .375 for a full year, but .300 is possible as well as double digit homers and steals. Hooray!
Starting Rotation:
1-Roy Oswalt
2-Woody Williams
3-Wandy Rodriguez
4-Brandon Backe
5-Chris Sampson
If you don’t get Roy Oswalt, you probably shouldn’t take any Astros’ starters. Woody Williams is 41 and his pitching proves it. This is how a 40 year old pitches when he doesn’t do HGH.
Wandy Rodriguez either strikes guys out or gives up a hit. Not a good combination. Brandon Backe was lousy and then he had Tommy John surgery. Has that ever made anyone a BETTER pitcher?
Chris Sampson hasn’t been completely ruined yet and that’s the best thing I can say about him. He’s battling the immortal Shawn Chacon to be the fifth starter. Not a typo.
Bullpen:
CL-Jose Valverde
SU1-Doug Brocail
SU2-Geoff Geary
Valverde is an elite closer who is surrounded by some mediocre talent. He’ll be near the top of the league in saves once again, but the opportunities won’t be as prevalent as they were last year in Arizona. Brocail and Geary aren’t worth discussing.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The perennial doormats of the Central should make their way to fifth place this season, mainly due to the garbage team that St. Louis will be fielding this year. Pittsburgh has a good, young nucleus of players, but still too many holes to contend.
Projected Lineup
1-Nate McLouth-CF
2-Freddy Sanchez-2B
3-Jason Bay-LF
4-Adam LaRoche-1B
5-Xavier Nady-RF
6-Jose Bautista-3B
7-Ronny Paulino-C
8-Jack Wilson-SS
First things first….don’t wait too long on Jason Bay! Last season Bay was a 3rd round pick and this year, he’s falling towards the 8th or 9th rounds of mixed leagues. Don’t be the guy to pass up on him, because you will be kicking yourself. Chalk up 2007 to an injured knee and be ready to ride him like you did in years past.
As for the rest of the lineup, all I can say is ‘eh’. It’s not terrible, but it’s not anything that will make you say giddyup.
McLouth hit 13 homers and stole 22 bases in just 329 at bats last year. Project that to 500 AB’s and your talking 20 and 35. That looks nice, but it’s just a projection and McLouth hasn’t shown that kind of power at any level. The steals might end up being there, but 20 homers won’t. Like I said, ‘eh’.
Sanchez has turned into a perennial .300 hitter with a little pop. Since he’s a second baseman, he should be taken in all mixed leagues.
LaRoche is a guy who you will hate having on your team. Take it from a guy who had him in two leagues last year. When you own him and watch him everyday, it seems like he does nothing. But the end of the year rolls around and he’s got 25 homers and 90 RBI’s. Draft him, but ignore him once you’ve got him. Let Adam be Adam.
Nady is the definition of blah. 15 to 20 homers, 70 RBI’s, 60 runs. Outfield might be the most shallow position this year so towards the end you might have to take him. That doesn’t mean you have to like it.
Jose Bautista….notice the trend? 12-18 homers, 70 RBI’s, 60 runs….boring. Don’t even give him a sniff in mixed leagues.
Ronny Paulino is supposedly in a battle this spring with Ryan Doumit to see who will be the starting catcher. I don’t see it being much of a fight, even though Doumit is a good hitter. Paulino is a solid catcher and might be on the verge of warranting mixed league consideration. He’s right on the cusp and now might be the time to jump on board. Doumit is too good not to get his at-bats, it just won’t be as the everyday catcher.
It’s still a mystery to me how Jack Wilson got 200 hits in 2004. He hasn’t approached it since and does not belong on your squad unless it’s a deep NL league.
Starting Rotation
1-Ian Snell
2-Tom Gorzelanny
3-Paul Maholm
4-Matt Morris
5-Zach Duke
I hate to admit it, but I really like the Pirates starting rotation. None of them will get a ton of wins, but they could help you in the other categories.
Many say Snell had a breakout season last year, but I say this year will truly be when he arrives. It’s his third full year in the rotation. His innings have been going up and his walks have been going down. This 26 year old belongs on all mixed league squads and could be one of those guys who make your season.
I’ve been on the Gorzelanny bandwagon since he was first called up for good in late 2006. His first full year was filled with ups and downs, but this lefty knows how to pitch and could team up with Snell to give the Bucs a terrific one-two punch.
Maholm and Morris are both awful and they are the main reason the Pirates won’t finish above fifth place. I blame you! And Zach Duke, what the hell? Opponents batted .359 against him in an injury shortened 2007. Do you know how hard that is to do? One out of every three batters he faced got a hit. But he’s a lefty and he’s only 24, so he still has a job. God bless the southpaw.
Bullpen
CL-Matt Capps
SU1-Damaso Marte
SU2-Byung-Hyun Kim(no joke)
Matt Capps is awesome, I cannot lie. He’d be JJ Putz if the Pirates could win more than 70 games. Cross your fingers that they are in a lot of close victories. If so, Capps will have been a bargain. BH Kim is still in the league and that’s the only good thing I can say about him.
St. Louis Cardinals
How long ago does that 2005 World Championship seem? In case you haven’t seen this teams potential lineup and rotation, be prepared to have a little throwup in the back of your throat. It’s that brutal.
Projected Lineup
1-Cesar Izturis-SS
2-Rick Ankiel-CF
3-Albert Pujols-1B
4-Troy Glaus-3B
5-Chris Duncan-LF
6-Ryan Ludwick
7-Yadier Molina-C
8-Adam Kennedy-2B
I would have loved to have been in the boardroom of the Cardinals this offseason. I can only figure the discussion went something like this.
Exec #1: Okay, we’re letting Eckstein go, so who should we go after to be our shortstop? Miguel Tejada is available.
Exec #2: No, too expensive. How about bringing Edgar Renteria back?
Exec #3: I heard the Angels want to get rid of Orlando Cabrera.
G.M.: No…I think when all is said and done, I’d rather have Cesar Itzuris as our leadoff hitter and starting shortstop.
Yeah, that happened. Itzuris is a lifetime .259 hitter with no power, speed or athletic ability. But for St. Louis fans, he’s the catalyst for your offense. Enjoy. If you need me to tell you not to draft him, then I can’t help you. As for the rest of the lineup….
Your number two hitter is a head case with a history of HGH use, who struck out approximately once every four at-bats in 2007. Your number three hitter is walking around spring training with his body wrapped in an ace bandage and could go in for season ending elbow surgery at any minute.
Your number four hitter has power, but nothing else. Ditto your number five hitter. Your number 6 hitter was out of baseball in 2006 and has bounced around from team to team, finally landing in desparate St. Louis. Your number seven hitter, your catcher, calls a great game. Your number 8 hitter is the worst of them all.
The biggest question heading into everyone’s draft is Albert Pujols. His stock is in a freefall and I’m wondering what to do if he falls to me at number 11 in my mixed league draft. The Cards are going NOWHERE and how long will it be until Albert just says ‘screw you guys, I’m going home.’ He could pull the plug at anytime and go to have his chronic elbow fixed, guaranteeing he’ll be back in ’09. It’s tough using your top pick on someone in such a precarious spot.
Outside of Albert, I have a hard time advocating anyone else in this lineup in a mixed league. I know Glaus will be picked and probably so will Ankiel. But I don’t want them and my advice is to let them be someone else’s problem.
Starting Rotation (oh god)
1-Adam Wainwright
2-Braden Looper
3-Joel Pineiro
4-Matt Clement
5-Anthony Reyes
I’ll admit, Wainwright is okay. He might win 10-12 games and have an ERA around 3.50. But he needs to cut back on the walks (70 in 202 IP). If there is one pitcher on this staff to consider in mixed leagues, it’s him.
Looper doesn’t strike anybody out. His middle name is Lavern. The team behind him is awful. Three strikes.
Unless you want to see your ERA and WHIP spontaneously burst into flames, stay far away from Pineiro and Clement.
And finally, young Mr. Reyes. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times and I’m going to find you. Potential, potential, potential. Well, Reyes is now 26 and his time should be now. It isn’t and this is the kind of draft pick that ruins fantasy seasons. Don’t be that sucker.
Bullpen
CL-Jason Isringhausen
SU1-Ryan Franklin
SU2-Russ Springer
Izzy is a mortal lock to get you 30 saves and a nice ERA and WHIP. He’s undervalued most every year because people seem to always think he is hurt, when in actuality he’s just acting. Grab him, knowing at least one short stint on the DL will be in the future. But saves are saves and Izzy will at least give you that.
Are you all still ‘Flyered UP’? I’m not exactly sure what happened to this team, but you know things are bad when they brought Vinny Prospal back to town to try and save the season.
Daniel Briere is exciting to watch in the offensive zone, but you’d think for 52 million he’d at least try to play some defense. I don’t know what was different in Buffalo, but last year he was +17.
I can’t help but watch the 76ers and beg for them to lose. How many times can you finish 8th in the East, lose out on a lottery pick and get mopped in the first round? I know you can’t tell the team to tank, but this mediocrity is getting old. There isn’t much worse than being stuck in NBA purgatory and that’s exactly where this team is.
But as depressing as the Sixers are, I have to be thankful that they didn’t do what the Suns and the Mavs did. I know these teams feel like their window of opportunity might be coming to an end, but the fact of the matter is Shaq and Jason Kidd don’t fix their problems.
Kidd is still able to run with the best of them, but he couldn’t gun with Will Ferrell. And with Dallas not being much of a running team, I have to think Mark Cuban panicked.
The Shaq situation is just the opposite. He can’t run with the Suns, he only slows them down offensively. If his body holds out, he should be able to help out defensively come playoff time. But Shawn Marion is a stud and he’ll be playing long after Shaq has limped off into the sunset. I was on board the Shaq deal at first, but having watched him in action with his new mates, I have to say the move won’t pay off.
At least the Mavs and Suns won’t have to worry about the Rockets in their run to the title. The good news is Yao will be healthy enough to lead China against the U.S. in the Summer Olympics.
But how great would it be if Yao pulled a WWE move next summer. Acting like he is going to play for China and then ripping off his jersey to reveal a United States uniform, right before the two teams were about to meet. Take that Communism!! Yao is a free man!! That might be the only thing that would actually get me to watch the Summer Olympics.
Teams are finally gearing up for their first actual spring training games and it’s about time. I’m sick and tired of hearing guys getting hurt and they aren’t even playing. You have to admit, of the four sports, baseball players are the biggest wusses.
Kevin Millwood pulled a hammy, reportedly while slipping on a pepperoni while at the Pizza Hut all you can eat buffet. Good news…he didn’t spill his plate.
Bartolo Colon has signed a one year deal with the Red Sox and reports are he is out of shape even for his standards. Bartolo has never been one to skip a meal and I can only guess that he came to camp weighing over 3 bills, since his playing weight last year was around 260.
And for good measure, the Sox have also brought in Freddy Garcia for a look see. What does that tell you? At least they aren’t stuck with Adam Eaton.
Your typical draft is only about 2 or 3 weeks, so it’s time to get serious.
On to the NL Central (yuck).
Milwaukee Brewers
Call me crazy, but I think the Brewers can win this division. I don’t know if that speaks well of the Brew Crew or down on the other teams in the division. The Central has fallen hard and Milwaukee might be the last one standing.
Projected Lineup:
1-Rickie Weeks-2B
2-JJ Hardy-SS
3-Ryan Braun-LF
4-Prince Fielder-1B
5-Corey Hart-RF
6-Billy Hall-3B
7-Mike Cameron-CF
8-Jason Kendall-C
The Brewers lineup is pretty much set in stone. The lone exception will be in centerfield, since Mike Cameron is suspended the first 25 games of the year due to his second violation of the substance abuse policy. Gabe Gross or Gabe Kapler will see the majority of playing time over the first month. Considering how often Cameron breaks down, it might help having that first month off.
Ryan Braun takes his stone hands to the outfield where his glove can do less damage. Enjoy the third base eligibility while you can. I’m not sure Braun can live up to the expectations following last year’s barrage. But the fact that he can steal 20 bases makes him worth a late first round pick.
Bill Hall moves back to third and I’m expecting a nice rebound in ’08. Corey Hart has right field all to himself and the 26 year old has the potential to go 30-30.
JJ Hardy has been slipping in a number of draft boards and I’m not sure why. The only reason I can think is last year’s lousy second half. But last year was the first that Hardy stayed completely healthy and 25 home run shortstops don’t just grow on trees. In NL only leagues, I’d rank Hardy the 5th best shortstop, behind Hanley, Reyes, J-Roll, and Tulowitzki.
Starting Rotation:
1-Ben Sheets
2-Jeff Suppan
3-Dave Bush
4-Yovanni Gallardo
5-Chris Capuano
ALT-Carlos Villanueva
One word describes the Brewers starting rotation: potential. All five of these guys can put up big numbers. But health and other issues have gotten in the way in the past couple years. Every year, things seem to just come together for certain teams and I think that will be the case in ’08 in Milwaukee.
Sheets was pretty ordinary his first couple of years in the league, but he was a workhorse. Then, in 2004, he turned the corner and became an ace. At the same time, he got the injury bug and hasn’t started more than 24 games in a season since. Sheets is the consummate number one for your squad, strikeouts and all. If he can eke out 30+ starts for you, you won’t be disappointed.
Jeff Suppan is NL only material. His WHIP will hurt you, guaranteed, but you might be able to milk 12-14 wins out of him.
Bush was a trendy pick heading into last season and then he forgot how to get guys out. Still, the potential is there, especially in the K department. I like him now that the hype has died down.
The best thing that could have happened is Gallardo getting injured this spring. There is nothing wrong with his arm, he’ll be back sometime in April and he’s falling on draftboards around the country. The young’en is a strikeout machine and will make you happy you drafted him.
Capuano has nowhere to go but up. An 18 game winner and an All-Star in 2005, Capuano can be a help if he gets his head on straight. The talent is there.
Bullpen:
CL-Eric Gagne
SU1-Derrick Turnbow
SU2-David Riske
The Brewers let Coco Cordero walk this winter and replaced him with the enigma that is Eric Gagne. Gagne was strong while closing for Texas early last season, but was an aberration when he went to Boston. Perhaps it was moving out of the closer role that was his downfall. We’ll find out. A move back to the NL should help as well.
Turnbow was an adequate closer in another life, but now he’s as safe as a Molotov cocktail when put in save situations. David Riske is more likely to get the call if Gagne eats it.
Chicago Cubs
When the Brewers collapsed last summer, it was the Cubs who swooped in and took the NL Central throne. But did the Cubs really impress anyone with their run? It seemed more what the Brewers didn’t do than what the Cubs did do. They’re roster looks nice on paper, but most of the players can be categorized as underachievers.
Projected Lineup:
1-Alfonso Soriano-LF
2-Ryan Theriot-SS
3-Derrek Lee-1B
4-Aramis Ramirez-3B
5-Kosuke Fukudome-RF
6-Mark DeRosa-2B
7-Geovany Soto-C
8-Felix Pie
Soriano has some explaining to do if he doesn’t reach 20 steals again this year. A late surge in September bodes well, but the fact that he is already saying this spring that his legs aren’t that healthy does not. As is, he’s a late second round pick in mixed leagues.
The best thing about Ryan Theriot is that he qualifies at 2B and SS and in some leagues 3B. He’s got speed and he’s got a reputation as a great guy, but I could care less about his clubhouse rep. He hit 3 home runs and batted .266 last season. NL only okay, mixed leagues, don’t waste a pick.
For those waxing nostalgic, I present Derrek Lee. 2005 seems like eons ago and he’ll never be the same player. If you’re expecting 40 homers, god speed. You can get Adam LaRoche 6 rounds later and only feel it in your batting average.
It’s hard to find a flaw with A-Ram, though I’d like at least 1 stolen base this year. But the key to the Cubs lineup will be Fukudome. If he can’t make the transition, that will leave the Cubs vulnerable from hitters 5 through 9 and that’s no good. I won’t even pretend to know what this guy will do and anyone who tells you they can is lying.
DeRosa is another guy who qualifies all over, making him valuable in NL only leagues. 10 homers, 60-70 RBI’s. Nothing to get your heart racing.
Soto is intriguing as NL catchers go. While that doesn’t say much, he does have the starting job with no real competition. 15 to 20 homers is a possibility.
Felix Pie seems like he should be 30 years old by now, but he’s still just 23. He’s got the starting gig all to himself and if he doesn’t show it this year, Pie might be cooked.
Starting Rotation:
1-Carlos Zambrano
2-Ted Lilly
3-Rich Hill
4-Jason Marquis
5-Ryan Dempster
ALT-Jon Lieber
Do not overpay for Carlos!!! Let me say that first. I can’t help but feel bad things are on the horizon for the big man. He’s only 26 and already has logged just under 1200 innings pitched. I know he prides himself on being a workhorse, but eventually, the injury bug catches up with everybody. The dip in numbers across the board last year have me staying away.
Ted Lilly put up validated his big contract with his best year ever in ’07. The switch to the NL did the lefty good and I think he’s a safer pick than Carlos, though not as safe as the next guy.
Rich Hill should be the top Cub pitcher taken in your draft. He won’t be, but he should be. In his first full season in the majors, Hill struck out nearly a batter an inning. Ignore the 11 wins, as poor run support was mainly to blame. 15 wins and 200 strikeouts are both likely.
Jason Marquis is an innings eater and not much else. If you have to draft him, make sure you trade him at the All-Star break. Trust me on this.
Ryan Dempster is being converted back to a starter, something he hasn’t done regularly since 2003. When that doesn’t work, Jon Lieber will lug his big butt out to the mound.
Bullpen:
CL-Bobby Howry?
SU1-Kerry Wood
SU2-Carlos Marmol
For a contending team, this is a pretty unsettled situation. Howry seems to be the most reliable. Marmol is the youngster with the cannon arm. Wood is the veteran trying to come back and prove he is worth a damn. I’m personally pulling for Marmol who could be a monster if he earns saves. 96 K’s in 69 innings makes him worth the dime.
Cincinnati Reds
I’d give the Reds a chance in the Central if it wasn’t for one thing. Dusty Baker. He is to fantasy baseball what Mike Shanahan is to fantasy football. Pure evil and I’ll explain why.
Starting Lineup:
1-Ryan Freel-CF
2-Adam Dunn-RF
3-Brandon Phillips-2B
4-Ken Griffey Jr.-LF
5-Edwin Encarnacion-3B
6-Scott Hatteburg-1B
7-Alex Gonzalez-SS
8-David Ross-C
The fact that Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, two of the most highly touted and ready for prime time prospects in all of baseball, aren’t projected to start for the Reds has me seeing red.
Ryan Freel is a scrub who can run fast and get hurt a lot. 64 RBI’s in three years, what more do I have to say. I don’t care if he bats leadoff. That didn’t stop Jimmy Rollins from driving in 94 runs, did it? I realize Bruce is only 20 years old, but face it….Freel stinks.
Just a bit more smelly is Scott Hatteburg. 10 home runs from your starting first baseman in the homer haven that is the Great American Ballpark is a travesty. And there’s good old Dusty doing what he’s always done. Sticking with the grizzled, washed up veteran and putting Baby in a corner. Votto is 24 and ready to pop. He may be young and unproven, but is there a chance in heck he does worse than Hatteburg? No way.
Dunn, Phillips, Griffey and Encarnacion form a daunting stretch for opposing pitchers. If Votto would be hitting sixth, oooh baby. Also, look for Encarnacion to be a steal in your draft, because he’ll go for 30 bombs this year.
Starting Rotation:
1-Aaron Harang
2-Bronson Arroyo
3-Matt Belisle
4-Homer Bailey
5-Edinson Volquez
Harang has become a legitimate fantasy ace, topping 200 K’s for two straight years. But from there, things get dicey.
Arroyo could post a sub 4 ERA and he never misses a turn. Look for the WHIP and ERA to both come down this year and the wins to go up. You could do much, much worse.
Speak of the devil. Here comes Matt Belisle, another crappy number 3 and a major reason the Reds won’t be able to hang. Don’t take unless you are a masochist.
Homer Bailey is the Red’s top pitching prospect and will get a chance to prove himself, despite a horrific 2007. He could be an NL option for this year, but by 2009, Dusty will have turned his arm to mush, so long term leagues beware.
There are two ways to look at Edinson Volquez. One is that he was Texas’ top pitching prospect, brought over to Cincy in the Josh Hamilton deal. Volquez could be a nice sleeper. The second way to look at Volquez is the fact that the Reds signed Josh ‘I’m a scrub of epic proportions’ Fogg to potentially be the fifth starter. If Volquez can’t beat out Fogg, he might as well retire.
Bullpen:
CL-Francisco Cordero
SU1-David Weathers
SU2-Mike Stanton
I’m not sure why the Reds felt compelled to spend a ton of money on Cordero when their starting rotation could have used the help. For some reason, David Weathers just gets no respect, despite three straight solid years in the Cincy pen. The move makes Reds relievers an asset, in a day and age when that is becoming more and more important. Cordero is a number one closer who could save 40 games again.
Houston Astros
After a couple years on the unemployment line, Ed Wade found a new home and Houston fans are feeling the wrath. Ed made some major changes this winter, including a deal with his old squad. And while the Astros offense looks potent, I still can’t get over the fact that Woody Williams will be their number 2 starter. I reapeat…Woody Williams will be their number 2 starter. Way to go Ed.
Projected Lineup:
1-Michael Bourn-CF
2-Kaz Matsui-2B
3-Miguel Tejada-SS
4-Lance Berkman-1B
5-Carlos Lee-LF
6-Hunter Pence-RF
7-Ty Wigginton-3B
8-JR Towles-C
You see, a pretty nice lineup. We all know Bourn can run and he could swipe 50 this season now that’s he has a starting job. He might not drive in 20 runs, but 50 steals is 50 steals. After being the butt of jokes by Mets haters for years, Matsui has settled in as a decent second baseman. He seems like a perfect number two hitter, who can score some runs and steal some bases. A little of this, a little of that.
Tejada is a perfect fit for Tropicana Field and it’s short left field porch. He’ll hit .300 and drive in close to 100, which is allright for you starting shortstop.
Berkman and Lee will continue to mash and each should drive in 100 while hitting at least 30 homers. If Hunter Pence could stay out of the Turkish Bath’s, he could do the same. Plus steal 20 bases.
Wigginton will play third, but also qualifies at second base. 25 home runs from your number seven hitter is always strong.
J.R. Towles numbers in September were close to what Brad Ausmus put up from April to August. Don’t expect Towles to hit .375 for a full year, but .300 is possible as well as double digit homers and steals. Hooray!
Starting Rotation:
1-Roy Oswalt
2-Woody Williams
3-Wandy Rodriguez
4-Brandon Backe
5-Chris Sampson
If you don’t get Roy Oswalt, you probably shouldn’t take any Astros’ starters. Woody Williams is 41 and his pitching proves it. This is how a 40 year old pitches when he doesn’t do HGH.
Wandy Rodriguez either strikes guys out or gives up a hit. Not a good combination. Brandon Backe was lousy and then he had Tommy John surgery. Has that ever made anyone a BETTER pitcher?
Chris Sampson hasn’t been completely ruined yet and that’s the best thing I can say about him. He’s battling the immortal Shawn Chacon to be the fifth starter. Not a typo.
Bullpen:
CL-Jose Valverde
SU1-Doug Brocail
SU2-Geoff Geary
Valverde is an elite closer who is surrounded by some mediocre talent. He’ll be near the top of the league in saves once again, but the opportunities won’t be as prevalent as they were last year in Arizona. Brocail and Geary aren’t worth discussing.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The perennial doormats of the Central should make their way to fifth place this season, mainly due to the garbage team that St. Louis will be fielding this year. Pittsburgh has a good, young nucleus of players, but still too many holes to contend.
Projected Lineup
1-Nate McLouth-CF
2-Freddy Sanchez-2B
3-Jason Bay-LF
4-Adam LaRoche-1B
5-Xavier Nady-RF
6-Jose Bautista-3B
7-Ronny Paulino-C
8-Jack Wilson-SS
First things first….don’t wait too long on Jason Bay! Last season Bay was a 3rd round pick and this year, he’s falling towards the 8th or 9th rounds of mixed leagues. Don’t be the guy to pass up on him, because you will be kicking yourself. Chalk up 2007 to an injured knee and be ready to ride him like you did in years past.
As for the rest of the lineup, all I can say is ‘eh’. It’s not terrible, but it’s not anything that will make you say giddyup.
McLouth hit 13 homers and stole 22 bases in just 329 at bats last year. Project that to 500 AB’s and your talking 20 and 35. That looks nice, but it’s just a projection and McLouth hasn’t shown that kind of power at any level. The steals might end up being there, but 20 homers won’t. Like I said, ‘eh’.
Sanchez has turned into a perennial .300 hitter with a little pop. Since he’s a second baseman, he should be taken in all mixed leagues.
LaRoche is a guy who you will hate having on your team. Take it from a guy who had him in two leagues last year. When you own him and watch him everyday, it seems like he does nothing. But the end of the year rolls around and he’s got 25 homers and 90 RBI’s. Draft him, but ignore him once you’ve got him. Let Adam be Adam.
Nady is the definition of blah. 15 to 20 homers, 70 RBI’s, 60 runs. Outfield might be the most shallow position this year so towards the end you might have to take him. That doesn’t mean you have to like it.
Jose Bautista….notice the trend? 12-18 homers, 70 RBI’s, 60 runs….boring. Don’t even give him a sniff in mixed leagues.
Ronny Paulino is supposedly in a battle this spring with Ryan Doumit to see who will be the starting catcher. I don’t see it being much of a fight, even though Doumit is a good hitter. Paulino is a solid catcher and might be on the verge of warranting mixed league consideration. He’s right on the cusp and now might be the time to jump on board. Doumit is too good not to get his at-bats, it just won’t be as the everyday catcher.
It’s still a mystery to me how Jack Wilson got 200 hits in 2004. He hasn’t approached it since and does not belong on your squad unless it’s a deep NL league.
Starting Rotation
1-Ian Snell
2-Tom Gorzelanny
3-Paul Maholm
4-Matt Morris
5-Zach Duke
I hate to admit it, but I really like the Pirates starting rotation. None of them will get a ton of wins, but they could help you in the other categories.
Many say Snell had a breakout season last year, but I say this year will truly be when he arrives. It’s his third full year in the rotation. His innings have been going up and his walks have been going down. This 26 year old belongs on all mixed league squads and could be one of those guys who make your season.
I’ve been on the Gorzelanny bandwagon since he was first called up for good in late 2006. His first full year was filled with ups and downs, but this lefty knows how to pitch and could team up with Snell to give the Bucs a terrific one-two punch.
Maholm and Morris are both awful and they are the main reason the Pirates won’t finish above fifth place. I blame you! And Zach Duke, what the hell? Opponents batted .359 against him in an injury shortened 2007. Do you know how hard that is to do? One out of every three batters he faced got a hit. But he’s a lefty and he’s only 24, so he still has a job. God bless the southpaw.
Bullpen
CL-Matt Capps
SU1-Damaso Marte
SU2-Byung-Hyun Kim(no joke)
Matt Capps is awesome, I cannot lie. He’d be JJ Putz if the Pirates could win more than 70 games. Cross your fingers that they are in a lot of close victories. If so, Capps will have been a bargain. BH Kim is still in the league and that’s the only good thing I can say about him.
St. Louis Cardinals
How long ago does that 2005 World Championship seem? In case you haven’t seen this teams potential lineup and rotation, be prepared to have a little throwup in the back of your throat. It’s that brutal.
Projected Lineup
1-Cesar Izturis-SS
2-Rick Ankiel-CF
3-Albert Pujols-1B
4-Troy Glaus-3B
5-Chris Duncan-LF
6-Ryan Ludwick
7-Yadier Molina-C
8-Adam Kennedy-2B
I would have loved to have been in the boardroom of the Cardinals this offseason. I can only figure the discussion went something like this.
Exec #1: Okay, we’re letting Eckstein go, so who should we go after to be our shortstop? Miguel Tejada is available.
Exec #2: No, too expensive. How about bringing Edgar Renteria back?
Exec #3: I heard the Angels want to get rid of Orlando Cabrera.
G.M.: No…I think when all is said and done, I’d rather have Cesar Itzuris as our leadoff hitter and starting shortstop.
Yeah, that happened. Itzuris is a lifetime .259 hitter with no power, speed or athletic ability. But for St. Louis fans, he’s the catalyst for your offense. Enjoy. If you need me to tell you not to draft him, then I can’t help you. As for the rest of the lineup….
Your number two hitter is a head case with a history of HGH use, who struck out approximately once every four at-bats in 2007. Your number three hitter is walking around spring training with his body wrapped in an ace bandage and could go in for season ending elbow surgery at any minute.
Your number four hitter has power, but nothing else. Ditto your number five hitter. Your number 6 hitter was out of baseball in 2006 and has bounced around from team to team, finally landing in desparate St. Louis. Your number seven hitter, your catcher, calls a great game. Your number 8 hitter is the worst of them all.
The biggest question heading into everyone’s draft is Albert Pujols. His stock is in a freefall and I’m wondering what to do if he falls to me at number 11 in my mixed league draft. The Cards are going NOWHERE and how long will it be until Albert just says ‘screw you guys, I’m going home.’ He could pull the plug at anytime and go to have his chronic elbow fixed, guaranteeing he’ll be back in ’09. It’s tough using your top pick on someone in such a precarious spot.
Outside of Albert, I have a hard time advocating anyone else in this lineup in a mixed league. I know Glaus will be picked and probably so will Ankiel. But I don’t want them and my advice is to let them be someone else’s problem.
Starting Rotation (oh god)
1-Adam Wainwright
2-Braden Looper
3-Joel Pineiro
4-Matt Clement
5-Anthony Reyes
I’ll admit, Wainwright is okay. He might win 10-12 games and have an ERA around 3.50. But he needs to cut back on the walks (70 in 202 IP). If there is one pitcher on this staff to consider in mixed leagues, it’s him.
Looper doesn’t strike anybody out. His middle name is Lavern. The team behind him is awful. Three strikes.
Unless you want to see your ERA and WHIP spontaneously burst into flames, stay far away from Pineiro and Clement.
And finally, young Mr. Reyes. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times and I’m going to find you. Potential, potential, potential. Well, Reyes is now 26 and his time should be now. It isn’t and this is the kind of draft pick that ruins fantasy seasons. Don’t be that sucker.
Bullpen
CL-Jason Isringhausen
SU1-Ryan Franklin
SU2-Russ Springer
Izzy is a mortal lock to get you 30 saves and a nice ERA and WHIP. He’s undervalued most every year because people seem to always think he is hurt, when in actuality he’s just acting. Grab him, knowing at least one short stint on the DL will be in the future. But saves are saves and Izzy will at least give you that.
Friday, February 22, 2008
NL EAST FANTASY PREVIEW
The writer’s strike has finally ended, but to be honest, I’m perfectly happy with the garbage that is on television right now. Who needs well written shows with intricate plotlines and characters with whom you develop a deep connection?
Big Brother is back and we’ve already had one girl tell another that her boyfriend (who also happens to be on the show) is a racist, only to flat out deny it 10 minutes later. I guess she forgot about the 10,000 cameras around the house and that she had that microphone taped to her chest.
MTV’s The Gauntlet is an absolute guilty pleasure. I really don’t know why I enjoy watching these people compete in inane competitions, but I do. Does it have any bearing on my life? No. But I’m there every Wednesday night at 10.
Check out the new one My Dad is Better Than Your Dad, if only to see father’s hook their kids to a zip line 50 feet in the air and hurl them at a giant dartboard. I told you….AWESOME!
My brain is turning to mush, but I’m happy.
Onto to the NL East. Teams will be broken down by predicted finish.
NY Mets-They’ve got an overrated manager and a ton of pressure, but there is no way this team fails to make a run this year. They missed the playoffs last year by one game and that was without a healthy Pedro and of course, the Johan. The Mets have elite players all over the field and will make many a fantasy owner happy.
Projected Lineup:
1-Jose Reyes-SS
2-Luis Castillo-2B
3-David Wright-3B
4-Carlos Beltran-CF
5-Moises Alou-LF
6-Carlos Delgado-1B
7-Ryan Church-RF
8-Brian Schneider-C
No platoon situations, which is always a bonus. The only guy you here you wouldn’t want would be Schneider. All glove no hit catchers should be deported. Reyes and Wright are obvious first round picks, but I’m surprised to see how far Beltran has been falling (averaging late 2nd in mixed leagues). The outfield might be the thinnest position this year, keep that in mind. Beltran and Alfonso Soriano might be the only two OF’s capable of hitting 40 and stealing 20. Delgado is cooked. Castillo is someone you can get decent value out of…he doesn’t hit for power, but does everything else. I’m in the minority, but I like Moises Alou. I’ll take those stats, even if it’s only over 100 games. Church is a decent NL only option, nothing more.
Rotation:
1-Johan Santana
2-Pedro Martinez
3-John Maine
4-Orlando Hernandez
5-Oliver Perez
Tons to like about this staff. Santana’s numbers should go up across the board. Pedro will be Pedro. Maine is going to be this year’s Dan Haren. Consider that Maine put up his strong numbers last year while pitching the majority of the season as a number 1. Now, being a 3, he’ll have less pressure plus be facing opponent’s number 3’s, most of which are crummy. El Duque still knows how to pitch. He’ll miss a turn here or there, but you can survive. And Perez is in a contract year and if there ever was a guy who seems to have the ability to turn it on when he focuses, it’s Oliver. Throw in the fact that these guys will pitch all those games against the Nats and the Marlins and I’d take a flier on all five.
Bullpen:
CL-Billy Wagner
SU1-Aaron Heilman
SU2-Pedro Feliciano
If there is any chink in the armor, this might be it. The main reason being Billy Wagner. He was reprehensible down the stretch last year and the Mets had better pray that he can bounce back. Heilman is solid, but can he close if needed?
Philadelphia Phillies-We all got enjoyed the ride last year, especially at the expense of dirty Mets fans. But I cannot in good faith predict this years Phils to find themselves in the postseason…not with this pitching staff.
Lineup:
1-Jimmy Rollins-SS
2-Shane Victorino-CF
3-Chase Utley-2B
4-Ryan Howard-1B
5-Pat Burrell-LF
6-Geoff Jenkins/Jayson Werth-RF
7-Pedro Feliz-3B
8-Carlos Ruiz-C-
Nobody has a problem with the lineup. Rollins, Utley and Howard all could go in the first round of your drafts, especially if you’ve got some homers in your league. An easy way to tell: if Pat Burrell goes in the first 10 rounds. Dead giveaway. Victorino was on pace to steal 50 last year until the calf got the best of him. 100 runs and 40 steals should be a lock. Jenkins should get the majority of playing time over Werth and Feliz is a big upgrade over Wes Helms. And as far as NL catchers go, you could do a lot worse than Carlos.
Rotation:
1-Cole Hamels
2-Brett Myers
3-Kyle Kendrick
4-Jamie Moyer
5-Adam Eaton
ALT-Kris Benson
Hamels has the stuff to win 20 and I think he will this year. For some reason, Myers has this reputation as a stud pitcher, when in reality, he’s never put it together. He’s never won more than 14 games in a season and only twice has he cracked the 4.00 ERA barrier. When you get to Kendrick, this is when you start to see the difference between the Phils and the Mets. Kendrick is ordinary. Not terrific, not Adam Eaton. For fantasy purposes he is especially useless because he doesn’t strike anyone out. Nice guy, but is he worth more than a 4 dollar bid? Moyer, I fear, is kaput. He’ll take the ball every turn and end up with close to 200 innings, but with a 5 ERA, it’s not worth it. Eaton is the biggest crook since OJ.
Bullpen:
CL-Brad Lidge
SU1-Tom Gordon
SU2-JC Romero
Lidge will be okay, just don’t let him pitch against St. Louis. Tom Gordon is a medical miracle. He just keeps coming back. Romero is a big reason the Phils made the playoffs last year and he needs to keep it up for them to have any kind of shot again.
Atlanta Braves-It was a fairly quiet offseason in Atlanta. Andruw Jones took his .222 batting average to LA, but if you look at their lineup, I think you’ll see that they will still end up missing him.
Lineup:
1-Kelly Johnson-2B
2-Yunel Escobar-SS
3-Chipper Jones-3B
4-Mark Teixeira-1B
5-Brian McCann-C
6-Jeff Francoeur-RF
7-Matt Diaz-LF
8-Mark Kotsay-CF
Last year, it was Kelly Johnson who I was able to sneak at the end of my drafts and he paid off big. This year, I’m hoping it’s Escobar. Just looking at last year’s number (5-28-54-5) you might be misled. But Escobar has the starting shortstop gig and is ready to take off. He reportedly bulked up over the winter. He qualifies at 2B, 3B and SS. What’s not to love? Second base is surprisingly deep, but I still like Johnson and I think he can improve on last year, since there will be no platoon whatsoever. Chipper does what Chipper does….working his way to the HOF. Teixeira always seems to get put down because he hasn’t driven in 140 runs like he did in 2005. Boo-hoo. If the draft were today, I’d probably take Teixeira over Pujols, considering the injury factor to Albert. McCann should be the 2nd catcher taken after Russell Martin, but Bobby Cox can’t run him into the ground like he did last year. Hard to believe McCann is only 24. Francoeur couldn’t hit 20 homers last year and I worry that might be his plateau. Diaz is a part-time guy who will likely fail when given the full time shot. Wes Helms anybody? Mark Kotsay does everything equally poorly.
Rotation:
1-John Smoltz
2-Tim Hudson
3-Tom Glavine
4-Chuck James
5-Jair Jurrjens/Mike Hampton
Glavine and Smoltz, reunited and it doesn’t feel good. Smoltz will hold up his end of the bargain, but Glavine is toast. Hudson had possibly his best year ever last year and should now be drafted even in mixed leagues. James was a major sleeper last year and I’d consider him a buy low for ’08. He’s only 26 and entering his 3rd year as a starter, which is usually nice. I can’t believe Mike Hampton is still trying to pick up a baseball. I guess it will take his elbow actually disappearing in a puff of smoke for him to hang it up. Jurrjens was a key piece in the Edgar Renteria deal and with oldies Hampton and Glavine counting the days until their hips collapse, he should get a shot.
Bullpen:
CL-Rafael Soriano
SU1-Peter Moylan
SU2-Mike Gonzalez
This is finally Soriano’s shot at being THE GUY. He’s always posted solid numbers, but just wasn’t given the chance. Moylan is said to have the composure to step in and close if Soriano falters. If not, Mike Gonzalez should be back by mid season and he has proven he can shut the door.
Washington Nationals
Lineup:
1-Ronnie Belliard-2B
2-Paul Loduca-C
3-Ryan Zimmerman-3B
4-Nick Johnson-1B
5-Wily Mo Pena-LF
6-Austin Kearns-RF
7-Lastings Milledge-CF
8-Cristian Guzman-SS
Two glaring omissions in the Nationals projected lineup and that’s why they play spring training. Felipe Lopez to start off. Manny Acta has said that Lopez has to work on his fundamentals if he wants to start. The fact that he thinks the putrid Cristian Guzman has better fundamentals than Lopez should serve as motivation. By the time April rolls around, expect Lopez to be leading off, Belliard to be batting eighth and Guzman to be out of sight, out of mind. The other missing man from this lineup is Dmitri Young who showed everyone last year that he can hit more than a guy in a kielbasa costume. Nick Johnson looks like he is finally recovered from the broken leg he suffered in 2006, so first base is his. Young could play left field, but that would only seem to happen if Pena really struggled out of the gate. Dmitri doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would want to go back to the bench, so expect some kind of deal to make room for everybody. Also expect Ryan Zimmerman to become a top 3 thirdbaseman now that the Nats have left RFK.
Rotation:
1-John Patterson
2-Shawn Hill
3-Jason Bergmann
4-Matt Chico
5-Joel Hanrahan
When the first thing you think of in regards to your top three starters is injury prone, you know you’re in trouble. Patterson has teased me for years with startling stuff when he’s on the mound. But in the past two seasons, he has pitched in exactly 15 games. Jon Rauch pitched in 15 games just last April. Hill showed flashes, just like Patterson. And just like Patterson, he missed time last year with both shoulder and elbow problems. The bio on Bergmann can read almost word for word. And Matt Chico stinks. So where does this leave the Nats? Hard to believe, but better than the Marlins.
Bullpen
CL-Chad Cordero
SU1-Jon Rauch
SU2-Luis Ayala
And the bullpen is the main reason why they will be better than Florida. Cordero is another guy who hasn’t gotten any love because he has been unable to duplicate his 47 saves in 2005. He’s only 26 and it would take a lot for the Nats to move him out of the closer’s role. Rauch is a very good pitcher, who, like the above discussed Rafael Soriano, is in need of an opportunity. One day he’ll get his chance, but unless Cordero gets injured or traded, it won’t be this year.
Florida Marlins
Lineup
1-Hanley Ramirez-SS
2-Dan Uggla-2B
3-Jeremy Hermida-RF
4-Josh Willingham-LF
5-Mike Jacobs-1B
6-Dallas McPherson/Jorge Cantu-3B
7-Cody Ross-CF
8-Matt Treanor/Mike Rabelo-C
A mixed bag when you look at this lineup. Ramirez is obviously a top 3 talent. In my opinion, Hanley would be the number 2 overall pick behind A-Rod in mixed leagues. Uggla has averaged 29 home runs since entering the league, but his draft stock has been plummeting. I know he only hit .245, but to get a second baseman who can hit 30 bombs, drive in 90 and score close to 100, I’ll deal with the average. Go ahead, take Jeff Kent before him. I’ll be happy to have you in my league. Hermida is only 24 and had a top notch second half in ’07, which could be the sign that he’s turned the corner. 25-90-.300 is possible. Willingham and Jacobs are what they are. Run of the mill guys that wouldn’t scare Steve Trachsel if he was facing them. Third base is up for grabs between McPherson (potential), Cantu (history), and Jose Castillo (ehh). You might be surprised to see Cody Ross penciled in as starting in CF over uber-prospect Camberon Maybin. Maybin was one of the key pieces in the Miguel Cabrera trade, but he’s only 20 years old. He’ll replace Hanley at leadoff eventually, but he’ll have likely start the year in Triple A. Treanor is awful. Rabelo at least has some potential.
Rotation
1-Scott Olsen
2-Sergio Mitre
3-Mark Hendrickson
4-Andrew Miller
5-Rick Vandenhurk
I really can’t think of what to say about this potential rotation. Words escape me. It’s hard to believe you would enter a season with a number 1 coming off a year in which he lost 15 games with an ERA near 6. Olsen is a head case and Mitre is no better, having won only 8 games in 3 years. Mark Hendrickson is very tall. I can’t think of anything else positive to say about him. And remember what I said about John Maine facing number 3’s around the league? In the NL East alone, you’ve got Kendrick, Glavine, Hendrickson and Bergmann. It’s not even a competition. Miller could turn into something, but he’s only 22 and has a lot to learn. I’m not even going to mention that last guy. Good grief.
Bullpen
CL-Kevin Gregg
SU1-Justin Miller
SU2-Matt Lindstrom
Gregg came out of nowhere to save 32 games last year. Example number 487 why you don’t have to overpay for saves at your draft. Guys like Gregg come along every year. Would you have rather spent an early pick on Mariano Rivera last year or waited and swiped Gregg off the waiver wire. Gregg ended up with more saves and more K’s and only a slightly higher ERA and WHIP. Miller and Lindstrom had solid seasons behind Gregg and they’ll have their work cut out for them in ’08. They’ll be pitching an awful lot.
Big Brother is back and we’ve already had one girl tell another that her boyfriend (who also happens to be on the show) is a racist, only to flat out deny it 10 minutes later. I guess she forgot about the 10,000 cameras around the house and that she had that microphone taped to her chest.
MTV’s The Gauntlet is an absolute guilty pleasure. I really don’t know why I enjoy watching these people compete in inane competitions, but I do. Does it have any bearing on my life? No. But I’m there every Wednesday night at 10.
Check out the new one My Dad is Better Than Your Dad, if only to see father’s hook their kids to a zip line 50 feet in the air and hurl them at a giant dartboard. I told you….AWESOME!
My brain is turning to mush, but I’m happy.
Onto to the NL East. Teams will be broken down by predicted finish.
NY Mets-They’ve got an overrated manager and a ton of pressure, but there is no way this team fails to make a run this year. They missed the playoffs last year by one game and that was without a healthy Pedro and of course, the Johan. The Mets have elite players all over the field and will make many a fantasy owner happy.
Projected Lineup:
1-Jose Reyes-SS
2-Luis Castillo-2B
3-David Wright-3B
4-Carlos Beltran-CF
5-Moises Alou-LF
6-Carlos Delgado-1B
7-Ryan Church-RF
8-Brian Schneider-C
No platoon situations, which is always a bonus. The only guy you here you wouldn’t want would be Schneider. All glove no hit catchers should be deported. Reyes and Wright are obvious first round picks, but I’m surprised to see how far Beltran has been falling (averaging late 2nd in mixed leagues). The outfield might be the thinnest position this year, keep that in mind. Beltran and Alfonso Soriano might be the only two OF’s capable of hitting 40 and stealing 20. Delgado is cooked. Castillo is someone you can get decent value out of…he doesn’t hit for power, but does everything else. I’m in the minority, but I like Moises Alou. I’ll take those stats, even if it’s only over 100 games. Church is a decent NL only option, nothing more.
Rotation:
1-Johan Santana
2-Pedro Martinez
3-John Maine
4-Orlando Hernandez
5-Oliver Perez
Tons to like about this staff. Santana’s numbers should go up across the board. Pedro will be Pedro. Maine is going to be this year’s Dan Haren. Consider that Maine put up his strong numbers last year while pitching the majority of the season as a number 1. Now, being a 3, he’ll have less pressure plus be facing opponent’s number 3’s, most of which are crummy. El Duque still knows how to pitch. He’ll miss a turn here or there, but you can survive. And Perez is in a contract year and if there ever was a guy who seems to have the ability to turn it on when he focuses, it’s Oliver. Throw in the fact that these guys will pitch all those games against the Nats and the Marlins and I’d take a flier on all five.
Bullpen:
CL-Billy Wagner
SU1-Aaron Heilman
SU2-Pedro Feliciano
If there is any chink in the armor, this might be it. The main reason being Billy Wagner. He was reprehensible down the stretch last year and the Mets had better pray that he can bounce back. Heilman is solid, but can he close if needed?
Philadelphia Phillies-We all got enjoyed the ride last year, especially at the expense of dirty Mets fans. But I cannot in good faith predict this years Phils to find themselves in the postseason…not with this pitching staff.
Lineup:
1-Jimmy Rollins-SS
2-Shane Victorino-CF
3-Chase Utley-2B
4-Ryan Howard-1B
5-Pat Burrell-LF
6-Geoff Jenkins/Jayson Werth-RF
7-Pedro Feliz-3B
8-Carlos Ruiz-C-
Nobody has a problem with the lineup. Rollins, Utley and Howard all could go in the first round of your drafts, especially if you’ve got some homers in your league. An easy way to tell: if Pat Burrell goes in the first 10 rounds. Dead giveaway. Victorino was on pace to steal 50 last year until the calf got the best of him. 100 runs and 40 steals should be a lock. Jenkins should get the majority of playing time over Werth and Feliz is a big upgrade over Wes Helms. And as far as NL catchers go, you could do a lot worse than Carlos.
Rotation:
1-Cole Hamels
2-Brett Myers
3-Kyle Kendrick
4-Jamie Moyer
5-Adam Eaton
ALT-Kris Benson
Hamels has the stuff to win 20 and I think he will this year. For some reason, Myers has this reputation as a stud pitcher, when in reality, he’s never put it together. He’s never won more than 14 games in a season and only twice has he cracked the 4.00 ERA barrier. When you get to Kendrick, this is when you start to see the difference between the Phils and the Mets. Kendrick is ordinary. Not terrific, not Adam Eaton. For fantasy purposes he is especially useless because he doesn’t strike anyone out. Nice guy, but is he worth more than a 4 dollar bid? Moyer, I fear, is kaput. He’ll take the ball every turn and end up with close to 200 innings, but with a 5 ERA, it’s not worth it. Eaton is the biggest crook since OJ.
Bullpen:
CL-Brad Lidge
SU1-Tom Gordon
SU2-JC Romero
Lidge will be okay, just don’t let him pitch against St. Louis. Tom Gordon is a medical miracle. He just keeps coming back. Romero is a big reason the Phils made the playoffs last year and he needs to keep it up for them to have any kind of shot again.
Atlanta Braves-It was a fairly quiet offseason in Atlanta. Andruw Jones took his .222 batting average to LA, but if you look at their lineup, I think you’ll see that they will still end up missing him.
Lineup:
1-Kelly Johnson-2B
2-Yunel Escobar-SS
3-Chipper Jones-3B
4-Mark Teixeira-1B
5-Brian McCann-C
6-Jeff Francoeur-RF
7-Matt Diaz-LF
8-Mark Kotsay-CF
Last year, it was Kelly Johnson who I was able to sneak at the end of my drafts and he paid off big. This year, I’m hoping it’s Escobar. Just looking at last year’s number (5-28-54-5) you might be misled. But Escobar has the starting shortstop gig and is ready to take off. He reportedly bulked up over the winter. He qualifies at 2B, 3B and SS. What’s not to love? Second base is surprisingly deep, but I still like Johnson and I think he can improve on last year, since there will be no platoon whatsoever. Chipper does what Chipper does….working his way to the HOF. Teixeira always seems to get put down because he hasn’t driven in 140 runs like he did in 2005. Boo-hoo. If the draft were today, I’d probably take Teixeira over Pujols, considering the injury factor to Albert. McCann should be the 2nd catcher taken after Russell Martin, but Bobby Cox can’t run him into the ground like he did last year. Hard to believe McCann is only 24. Francoeur couldn’t hit 20 homers last year and I worry that might be his plateau. Diaz is a part-time guy who will likely fail when given the full time shot. Wes Helms anybody? Mark Kotsay does everything equally poorly.
Rotation:
1-John Smoltz
2-Tim Hudson
3-Tom Glavine
4-Chuck James
5-Jair Jurrjens/Mike Hampton
Glavine and Smoltz, reunited and it doesn’t feel good. Smoltz will hold up his end of the bargain, but Glavine is toast. Hudson had possibly his best year ever last year and should now be drafted even in mixed leagues. James was a major sleeper last year and I’d consider him a buy low for ’08. He’s only 26 and entering his 3rd year as a starter, which is usually nice. I can’t believe Mike Hampton is still trying to pick up a baseball. I guess it will take his elbow actually disappearing in a puff of smoke for him to hang it up. Jurrjens was a key piece in the Edgar Renteria deal and with oldies Hampton and Glavine counting the days until their hips collapse, he should get a shot.
Bullpen:
CL-Rafael Soriano
SU1-Peter Moylan
SU2-Mike Gonzalez
This is finally Soriano’s shot at being THE GUY. He’s always posted solid numbers, but just wasn’t given the chance. Moylan is said to have the composure to step in and close if Soriano falters. If not, Mike Gonzalez should be back by mid season and he has proven he can shut the door.
Washington Nationals
Lineup:
1-Ronnie Belliard-2B
2-Paul Loduca-C
3-Ryan Zimmerman-3B
4-Nick Johnson-1B
5-Wily Mo Pena-LF
6-Austin Kearns-RF
7-Lastings Milledge-CF
8-Cristian Guzman-SS
Two glaring omissions in the Nationals projected lineup and that’s why they play spring training. Felipe Lopez to start off. Manny Acta has said that Lopez has to work on his fundamentals if he wants to start. The fact that he thinks the putrid Cristian Guzman has better fundamentals than Lopez should serve as motivation. By the time April rolls around, expect Lopez to be leading off, Belliard to be batting eighth and Guzman to be out of sight, out of mind. The other missing man from this lineup is Dmitri Young who showed everyone last year that he can hit more than a guy in a kielbasa costume. Nick Johnson looks like he is finally recovered from the broken leg he suffered in 2006, so first base is his. Young could play left field, but that would only seem to happen if Pena really struggled out of the gate. Dmitri doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would want to go back to the bench, so expect some kind of deal to make room for everybody. Also expect Ryan Zimmerman to become a top 3 thirdbaseman now that the Nats have left RFK.
Rotation:
1-John Patterson
2-Shawn Hill
3-Jason Bergmann
4-Matt Chico
5-Joel Hanrahan
When the first thing you think of in regards to your top three starters is injury prone, you know you’re in trouble. Patterson has teased me for years with startling stuff when he’s on the mound. But in the past two seasons, he has pitched in exactly 15 games. Jon Rauch pitched in 15 games just last April. Hill showed flashes, just like Patterson. And just like Patterson, he missed time last year with both shoulder and elbow problems. The bio on Bergmann can read almost word for word. And Matt Chico stinks. So where does this leave the Nats? Hard to believe, but better than the Marlins.
Bullpen
CL-Chad Cordero
SU1-Jon Rauch
SU2-Luis Ayala
And the bullpen is the main reason why they will be better than Florida. Cordero is another guy who hasn’t gotten any love because he has been unable to duplicate his 47 saves in 2005. He’s only 26 and it would take a lot for the Nats to move him out of the closer’s role. Rauch is a very good pitcher, who, like the above discussed Rafael Soriano, is in need of an opportunity. One day he’ll get his chance, but unless Cordero gets injured or traded, it won’t be this year.
Florida Marlins
Lineup
1-Hanley Ramirez-SS
2-Dan Uggla-2B
3-Jeremy Hermida-RF
4-Josh Willingham-LF
5-Mike Jacobs-1B
6-Dallas McPherson/Jorge Cantu-3B
7-Cody Ross-CF
8-Matt Treanor/Mike Rabelo-C
A mixed bag when you look at this lineup. Ramirez is obviously a top 3 talent. In my opinion, Hanley would be the number 2 overall pick behind A-Rod in mixed leagues. Uggla has averaged 29 home runs since entering the league, but his draft stock has been plummeting. I know he only hit .245, but to get a second baseman who can hit 30 bombs, drive in 90 and score close to 100, I’ll deal with the average. Go ahead, take Jeff Kent before him. I’ll be happy to have you in my league. Hermida is only 24 and had a top notch second half in ’07, which could be the sign that he’s turned the corner. 25-90-.300 is possible. Willingham and Jacobs are what they are. Run of the mill guys that wouldn’t scare Steve Trachsel if he was facing them. Third base is up for grabs between McPherson (potential), Cantu (history), and Jose Castillo (ehh). You might be surprised to see Cody Ross penciled in as starting in CF over uber-prospect Camberon Maybin. Maybin was one of the key pieces in the Miguel Cabrera trade, but he’s only 20 years old. He’ll replace Hanley at leadoff eventually, but he’ll have likely start the year in Triple A. Treanor is awful. Rabelo at least has some potential.
Rotation
1-Scott Olsen
2-Sergio Mitre
3-Mark Hendrickson
4-Andrew Miller
5-Rick Vandenhurk
I really can’t think of what to say about this potential rotation. Words escape me. It’s hard to believe you would enter a season with a number 1 coming off a year in which he lost 15 games with an ERA near 6. Olsen is a head case and Mitre is no better, having won only 8 games in 3 years. Mark Hendrickson is very tall. I can’t think of anything else positive to say about him. And remember what I said about John Maine facing number 3’s around the league? In the NL East alone, you’ve got Kendrick, Glavine, Hendrickson and Bergmann. It’s not even a competition. Miller could turn into something, but he’s only 22 and has a lot to learn. I’m not even going to mention that last guy. Good grief.
Bullpen
CL-Kevin Gregg
SU1-Justin Miller
SU2-Matt Lindstrom
Gregg came out of nowhere to save 32 games last year. Example number 487 why you don’t have to overpay for saves at your draft. Guys like Gregg come along every year. Would you have rather spent an early pick on Mariano Rivera last year or waited and swiped Gregg off the waiver wire. Gregg ended up with more saves and more K’s and only a slightly higher ERA and WHIP. Miller and Lindstrom had solid seasons behind Gregg and they’ll have their work cut out for them in ’08. They’ll be pitching an awful lot.
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